Texas Winter 2017-2018

[stormlover2013]

that's the the things,where is the cold source of region from Canada?? doesn't look good right now.

[Ralph's Weather]

Following the history of our recent systems this month I think you have to lean towards a stronger SW system, now temps are a huge wildcard.

And it’s funny that temps looked like the most solid bet of all lol. Go figure.

If the trough stays in one progressive piece then look for chilly and dry. If we do get the left over energy then there will be a surface low developing somewhere which will pump warm air out ahead and deeper cold on the backside with some pretty decent precip totals all around. I plan to be reliant on the NAM for this as the globals do not handle shortwaves well nor do they handle shallow cold well.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I better not have jinxed us with the joking numerous pages back, that in reality it will probably be in the 60s and dry with the models showing cold and wet.

[snowballzzz]

Funny how we go from talking about single digit lows and now talking about above normal temps!! Frustrating.

[Brent]

Funny how we go from talking about single digit lows and now talking about above normal temps!! Frustrating.

gotta love Texas

sadly the above normal temps are always more likely.

[davidiowx]

Funny how we go from talking about single digit lows and now talking about above normal temps!! Frustrating.

Welcome to Texas! Lol!

[wxman57]

I'm trying to get you guys more snow! I blame global warming...

[Theepicman116]

Is the Canadian model the one that shouldn't be trusted?

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12Z GFS now has a coherent shortwave coming out of the SW. The 06Z run had a faint one and prior runs were just a linear front. Hopefully it trends towards the Canadian and begins to cut the shortwave off in future runs.

[Ralph's Weather]

Is the Canadian model the one that shouldn't be trusted?

It can't be trusted except when it can be, and you never know when that is. Normally it is overly aggressive, but occasionally the aggressive solution is correct. We are getting into the NAM's range so whichever way it leans over the next few runs will likely show us what the correct solution is.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It was an HP that was modeled at 1064mb a couple of days before, I don't remember the exact value but it didn't end up breaking the record. Hence ~1064

A lot of that depends on the 500mb flow pattern. I'm guessing that in the instance you reference, the coldest air from that HP moved to our northeast and the upper level flow did not bring it down the spine of the Rockies and directly into Texas. As you know that is often what happens to us and we only get a glancing blow.

I remember this. That year had some MASSIVE HP's but the flow was strong from west to east. The air didnt spill down the spine much because it went east. It was a nino year i think and worried us for big cold. The year before it was neutral and the -EPO induced by a massive warm blob brought 6 large arctic blasts down.

[Brent]

The 12z GFS only gets DFW down to a pathetic 32 degrees



I'm having flashbacks to before the S TX snow when the same GFS insisted DFW wouldn't freeze

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Alot of talk on the source region. I get it totally, but right now is a wonderful time to "manufacture" high pressures right now though with such low sunlight right? When the high begins to build, i'd expect it to begin building quickly. Also, some of the air will be coming from Siberia and the North Pole, trying to stay positive here!

[dhweather]

Funny how we go from talking about single digit lows and now talking about above normal temps!! Frustrating.

gotta love Texas

sadly the above normal temps are always more likely.

That's a fact Jack!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 12z GFS only gets DFW down to a pathetic 32 degrees



I'm having flashbacks to before the S TX snow when the same GFS insisted DFW wouldn't freeze

Its so bad at surface temps. Im starting to look at the dewpoints they project. Temps wont drop all the way to the dewpoint though so its a complete guess. Somewhere in the middle.

[Cerlin]

These models are just killing me. What does it take to get some snow or cold around here? Ugh.

[CaptinCrunch]

Models can't even get this rain event correct... Lol, Highs cooler then models forecasted, rain heavier and amounts higher. Sorry but I have 0 confidence in these models ability to forecast anything consistent or correct even @ 24hrs out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

These models are just killing me. What does it take to get some snow or cold around here? Ugh.

With this 500MB setup, i think cold is coming, snow or precip will be hard to find.

[iorange55]

Models can't even get this rain event correct... Lol, Highs cooler then models forecasted, rain heavier and amounts higher. Sorry but I have 0 confidence in these models ability to forecast anything consistent or correct even @ 24hrs out.

Yeah, my hopes are not getting crushed nor lifted at the moment. It's just wait and see, but it is fun watching the models. It's great entertainment. I love this time of year.

[hamburgerman7070]

The gefs is TOTALLY opposite of the gfs fwiw.