Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

So is it possible the cold could come back for the 22/23 below freezing? Or is that pretty much out of the question?

It certainly is possible need to watch trends

The nam especially keep an eye on it.

My hunch is probably a cold rain but if the precip hangs around long enough could be something else at the end

[aggiecutter]

I hate to be redundant, but active subtropical jet plus pressing cold equals winter storm for the southern plains and Texas:

[stormlover2013]

18z gfs keep prolonging everything again and pushing it back lol

[losf1981]

Some Oklahoma mets that I follow on facebook are still calling for a snow storm this weekend for most of Oklahoma into far northern Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Some Oklahoma mets that I follow on facebook are still calling for a snow storm this weekend for most of Oklahoma into far northern Texas.

I agree with this, it is very likely that the Christmas Eve front will have more moisture available than modeled right now. The 18Z GFS is funky and I am discounting it so I am ignoring the fact that it suddenly eliminated the moisture for that front on this run. Watch for that system to dig into NM on future runs and if it does so northern Texas and OK should get a bit of snow out of it.

[Brent]

Lol now the gfs snowstorm is new years eve and new years day

I definitely wouldnt sleep on this weekend though yet. If the precip is underdone like today we could get away with more borderline temps

[hriverajr]

18z gfs keep prolonging everything again and pushing it back lol

yes it does...

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS with the most epic winter storm ever as most of Texas and Louisiana are destroyed.

[stormlover2013]

lol these models are struggling bad with the cold lol

[Ralph's Weather]

18z gfs keep prolonging everything again and pushing it back lol

yes it does...

As aggiecutter says cold plus active STJ equals winter storm in Texas, just have to figure out the timing. Heck, we could get some true snow within 5 days and a mix within 3 days.

[ronyan]

Anyone want to join a class action lawsuit against the GFS for stimulating false hope on weather boards?

[orangeblood]

I hate to be redundant, but active subtropical jet plus pressing cold equals winter storm for the southern plains and Texas:

Agreed, you rarely ever see the Ensembles this adamant about moisture and sub-freezing temps without a southern plains winter storm....just need a little more patience to let this pattern evolve

[gpsnowman]

All time daily record set today for DFW. 2.35 inches of rain has fallen and still raining, heavily at my place in Irving near the airport. A very wet wonderful day.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GEFS is still quite a bit cooler than the operational.

Makes more sense given what we know about these fronts.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

18z gfs keep prolonging everything again and pushing it back lol

Before too long it'll have this sucker moved out to June.

[La Breeze]

18z GFS with the most epic winter storm ever as most of Texas and Louisiana are destroyed.

When is this "expected" to occur? I know, things change...., just wondering.

[OKMet83]

FRZ Rain looks poss if not likely to me along I-44 S/E Of Oklahoma City Metro Fri Evening/Sat AM... How far south is in question both OUN, Ft Worth upping the talk a bit on this as well in the afternoon afd's Snow most likely stays north of the river on Christmas eve morning... Next week truly looks interesting IMO...

Edit: Also I would add Unless we start seeing significant agreement it's time to throw the long-range models out and see what the nam gives us over the next 24-48 hrs

[Brent]

It's now to start 2018 but the op gfs has been struggling and keeps pushing it later

I'd just be real surprised if this pattern doesn't produce something by new years the signals are so consistent. But if it somehow doesn't produce might as well move onto spring lol

Given the recent model trends it may just pop up out of nowhere a day or two in advance literally

[bubba hotep]

FRZ Rain looks poss if not likely to me along I-44 S/E Of Oklahoma City Metro Fri Evening/Sat AM... How far south is in question both OUN, Ft Worth upping the talk a bit on this as well in the afternoon afd's Snow most likely stays north of the river on Christmas eve morning... Next week truly looks interesting IMO...

Edit: Also I would add Unless we start seeing significant agreement it's time to throw the long-range models out and see what the nam gives us over the next 24-48 hrs

Next week is the most impressive pattern I've seen in years for N. Texas. I was never really big on the Christmas system but it still has sneaky potential. The following week has big winter storm potential, IMO.

[aggiecutter]