2017 WPAC Season
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
GFS has a triple threat for Vietnam. One from a SCS system which has support from multiple models...The system south of Guam...And another originating near the dateline.
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
A LPA may form in the vicinity of Palau and Yap islands within the next 24/48hrs. The global models(GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NAVGEM) indicate the possibility of gradual organization and strengthening over the Philippine Sea this coming week. At the moment, uncertainty exists on the extent of development and with regards to its track.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
When will this season ever end? 174 hours out...Past runs showed a Mindanao landfall.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
ECMWF have a strong Typhoon slamming the Mindanao/Visayas area while GFS recurve future 97W.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Less than halfway through the end of the season, the models are still insisting on more development.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
If season ends now, 2017 would be Philippines' 1st typhoon free year since 2005 (10 min)
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
GFS has another TS in just 198 hours...Impacts Palau and weakening before reaching the P.I.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
GFS takes the TS to Guam on Christmas day and Luzon. Development in 120 hours out.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
NWS starting to notice.
Little change in the forecast as the monsoon trough stays
well to the south of the Marianas. Couple of trade-wind surges
are visible upstream in the satellite imagery but are somewhat
difficult to time. Expect some brief periods of showers and
moderate to fresh winds with each arrival. Models have toned down
the development of the weak circulation south of Kosrae and just
north of the equator near 165E, but it still bares watching just
in case it gains more latitude than what is expected.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
GFS spins this up pretty quickly. Full blown TS in just 24 hours.
Strikes Pohnpei.
Christmas day passing south of Guam.
Peak.
Recurves.
Strikes Pohnpei.
Christmas day passing south of Guam.
Peak.
Recurves.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
It's literally straggling the equator.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Looks like it's spinning a bit now - painfully close to equator.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
ASCAT does show a weak circulation embedded in a near equatorial trough. It's not suddenly becoming a tropical storm 24 hours from now like the GFS keeps insisting, but it might be invest worthy.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Looks like the GFS is alone with this one, although the latest Euro run recognizes this area and develops it somehow into a disturbance. I don't know, GFS is telling me not to let my guard down but after all the sub-900s typhoon scare recently, I am not holding my breath.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
And the GFS changes big time
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
NWS discounting GFS for now.
Little change in the forecast as the Marianas are dominated by
moderate to fresh trade-wind flow in high pressure. A couple of
surges can be seen upstream, similar to today`s passage with the next
one pass through Friday night. GFS model suggest winds, especially
in the northern portion of our AOR...in the vicinity of Saipan and
Tinian may temporarily reach 25 knots which would result in a short
term small craft advisory for them. This will be more clear tomorrow
as to the timing and intensity of this event. Completely disregarded
the GFS run for the circulation southeast of Kosrae as it is the only
model we have that predicts any development...and if past record is
any indication...it `ain`t` going to happen.
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