Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, after looking at the 12z, at least we know whats not going to happen.

[weatherdude1108]

Ok, guys, I managed to schedule another Arctic front around New Year's. It gets pretty cold across Texas after all the snow ends. Seriously, I think some cold-mongerer has hacked the GFS...

You're going to have to work overtime to get that to verify!

Is the GFS pulling all this cold air from outer space?? Or out of its mainframe fantasyland ARRRSSSE?

[orangeblood]

GFS Ensembles continue to trend much colder for late next week...Mean High Temps of below freezing for half of the State over multiple days - some of these members are off the chart so GFS Op not the only one

[snowballzzz]

GFS Ensembles continue to trend much colder for late next week...Mean High Temps of below freezing for half of the State over multiple days - some of these members are off the chart so GFS Op not the only one

Isn't this exactly what it was doing last week for the Friday storm? And look where we are now... Way warmer temps than it showed last week.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS ensembles are still quite a bit colder than the operational for this weekend. We will see who is right

[gboudx]

GFS ensembles are still quite a bit colder than the operational for this weekend. We will see who is right

When? We have travel plans for Saturday and the comments on the previous page about wintry precip Friday night into Saturday have me concerned. The NWS says nothing of this potential.

[AubreyStorm]

Why so many people here posted LOL and LOL and LOL?

It’s disgusting!

[orangeblood]

GFS Ensembles continue to trend much colder for late next week...Mean High Temps of below freezing for half of the State over multiple days - some of these members are off the chart so GFS Op not the only one

Isn't this exactly what it was doing last week for the Friday storm? And look where we are now... Way warmer temps than it showed last week.

Actually no, the GFS Ensembles weren't showing anything too drastic for this weekend- within 0-5 Deg F of where they are projected now. It was the Single GFS Op and a few of the ENS Members that went overboard. I haven't noticed anything this cold, as a Mean Temp, showing up within 10 days until now for late next week.

[Tejas89]

The siren call of the models.

NWS FW has a note about the monumental snowstorm of December 20-21, 1929. Hillsboro got 26" in 24 hours (still a TX record), accompanied by thunder and lightening.
The snowtrack was just south of DFW, which received a mere trace. 14"+ from Hamilton to Athens. Waco 13".

[hriverajr]

Why so many people here posted LOL and LOL and LOL?

It’s disgusting!

How about ha ha ha :p

[Brent]

The siren call of the models.

NWS FW has a note about the monumental snowstorm of December 20-21, 1929. Hillsboro got 26" in 24 hours (still a TX record), accompanied by thunder and lightening.
The snowtrack was just south of DFW, which received a mere trace. 14"+ from Hamilton to Athens. Waco 13".

that storm would piss me off today.

[bubba hotep]

For anyone wondering, the Euro is dryer and warmer for DFW through D7. It looks like no freezes and barely more than a trace of rain... It keeps all the cold air bottled up north.

ETA: After looking closer, it does get a single freeze at DFW during Christmas. Still a far cry from a few days ago when it showed below freezing highs.

[Brent]

For anyone wondering, the Euro is dryer and warmer for DFW through D7. It looks like no freezes and barely more than a trace of rain... It keeps all the cold air bottled up north.

Amazing. Simply amazing.

[Ralph's Weather]

The siren call of the models.

NWS FW has a note about the monumental snowstorm of December 20-21, 1929. Hillsboro got 26" in 24 hours (still a TX record), accompanied by thunder and lightening.
The snowtrack was just south of DFW, which received a mere trace. 14"+ from Hamilton to Athens. Waco 13".

Looks like Tyler got around a foot from that storm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 500MB flow for the Euro sure looks like a cold one. No idea how DFW wont get to freezing with that. I dont believe that at all.

[Brent]

Euro has snow? in Dallas on December 29th

Sure this will verify

[Ralph's Weather]

Euro has snow? in Dallas on December 29th

Sure this will verify

Pretty much all models show something around then but i am going to avoid making 9 day forecasts for now.

[Brent]

looks like a big winter storm east of us but some light snow as it ends on the Euro

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW


.LONG TERM... /Issued 359 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

Low level warm air advection will increase through the day on
Thursday in response to the next low pressure system that will
move from the Great Basin into the Four Corners region. Thursday
will be the last warm day for awhile and possible the last day of
2017 with highs in the 70s.

The upper low is progged to drop south into the Desert Southwest
Thursday night and open up into a positively tilted long wave
trough. At the same time, a northern branch shortwave will move
east across the Northern Plains and send a cold front southward
across the Central Plains. The front should reach the northwest
zones around midnight Thursday and move southward through Friday
morning. Increasing large scale lift, coupled with lift along and
over the front, will bring increasing rain chances through the
night and into Friday. All the precipitation will fall as rain and
limited mid level instability should keep thunderstorm coverage
isolated.

Temperatures Friday will be noticeably colder than Thursday but
will vary greatly across the region due to the cold front. Highs
will range from the lower 40s in the northwest to the middle 60s
in the extreme south.

Rain chances will end from west to east Friday night with the
passing upper trough axis. Since temperature will be cooling both
at the surface and aloft, it will not be out of the question for
some light snow to mix with light rain near the Red River as the
trough axis passes. For now we will leave light rain as the
prevailing precipitation type Friday night.

Temperatures by Saturday morning will be near or slightly below
freezing across the northwest zones. However, all precipitation
will have ended before the onset of the freezing temperatures. Low
across the remainder of the region will be generally in the
middle and upper 30s.

Clouds will decrease on Saturday due to increasing large scale
subsidence. The return of the sun will offset low level cold air
advection and allow temperatures to warm into the middle 40s to
lower 50s.

Models begin to diverge a bit beginning Saturday night with the
GFS keeping north flow and dry/cold air in place while the ECMWF
tries to initiate weak return flow ahead short wave approaching
from the Central Rockies. At this point in time we tend to favor a
colder solution (closer to the GFS) since the airmass will not
modify much on Saturday and the best return flow should be
displaced west of the area. Therefore, expect most locations to
fall below freezing by Sunday morning with the exception of the
extreme southern zones.

The shortwave will move quickly across the Central Plains on
Sunday, sending a surge of arctic air southward into the Southern
Plains. The arctic front should come through dry but will bring
much colder and breezy conditions with afternoon highs generally
in the 40s and wind chills in the 30s. We were thinking a few
flurries may occur across the northern zones Sunday morning but
latest guidance suggests that it will be too dry to squeeze any
precipitation at all.

Dry northwest flow aloft is expected Christmas day and the day
after. Temperatures will be cold on Christmas with morning lows in
the 20s and highs in the 40s. Temperatures will begin to warm on
Tuesday when southerly winds return in response to another
developing low pressure system across the Pacific Northwest. This
system will likely be the last precipitation maker across North
and Central Texas for 2017.

[wxman22]

looks like a big winter storm east of us but some light snow as it ends on the Euro

12z Euro actually shows moderate to heavy snow across North Texas fwiw...