Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TheProfessor]

NAM and Canadian trending together on the shortwave tomorrow night. Both show it moving too far west to get DFW snow. Areas just W and NW of DFW will likely see ice and snow. We will have to watch to see the exact track the shortwave takes. Rainwise it looks like another good rain event with several inches possible again over NE TX. Strong storms again possible. Hope no more tornados.

Starting to think this will be the story of this winter for DFW. "Cold Rain"......yuck. I'd rather have it 100 degrees.

Now hold on there. Cold rain ain't too bad. Sure it's not as pretty as snow, but it's much better than freezing rain and in most cases better than sleet imo. Cold rain is great for areas in drought and for animals that want delicious rain water. Cold rain is amazing... Unless you happen to get some tight gradients and it cold rain being thrown at you at 50 mph.

[Lagreeneyes03]

NAM and Canadian trending together on the shortwave tomorrow night. Both show it moving too far west to get DFW snow. Areas just W and NW of DFW will likely see ice and snow. We will have to watch to see the exact track the shortwave takes. Rainwise it looks like another good rain event with several inches possible again over NE TX. Strong storms again possible. Hope no more tornados.

Starting to think this will be the story of this winter for DFW. "Cold Rain"......yuck. I'd rather have it 100 degrees.

Now hold on there. Cold rain ain't too bad. Sure it's not as pretty as snow, but it's much better than freezing rain and in most cases better than sleet imo. Cold rain is great for areas in drought and for animals that want delicious rain water. Cold rain is amazing... Unless you happen to get some tight gradients and it cold rain being thrown at you at 50 mph.

I'll compromise, 80 degrees and rain is fine. Cold rain is the worst weather known to man, IMO. I'd rather have sleet. At least it kind of looks like snow.

[losf1981]

NBC met here in Wichita Falls emphatically stated this morning that there will be no winter precipitation this weekend.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Wow. Hardly any activity overnight which means only one thing.

Winter Cancel!

Now that should get the Arctic Express back on track.....

[Ntxw]

Wow. Hardly any activity overnight which means only one thing.

It's a combination of things. Not too much model support, and frankly uninteresting runs overnight partially.

Second people are now starting to leave for their trips so postings might be limited.

Third, as mentioned the cynicism and pessimism often deters posters from discussing things beyond. As I said before, it's bled from the tropical threads and persons who posts something to discuss down the road potential can feel discouraged to share when flooded with "always 10 days out, not real etc etc." That's how a thread dies when discussion is not progressive.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Our forecast has changed a little overnight. Not as warm today as it was showing yesterday, however the cool temps have warmed a few degrees and the snow that was forecasted has been replaced with a chance of a winter mix. Also, today is the first day that the Norman office has actually mentioned the winter precipitation in their discussion, paired with a "changeover" map.

[Yukon Cornelius]

NBC met here in Wichita Falls emphatically stated this morning that there will be no winter precipitation this weekend.

Our Norman forecasting office says Wichita Falls and the surrounding areas still has a chance for a snow/rain/ice mix.

[orangeblood]

I've been big on the teleconnections pointing towards cold but the WPO and EPO are now not looking as negative and are looking to rebound much faster than just a couple of days ago. That could always trend back the other way but they don't look nearly as good as they did just on Monday.

Yep, the culprit of all of the hype on the models appeared to their overestimating the extent of the -EPO...they were way off and have been back tracking off the cold push, this far south, on every subsequent model run. The teleconnection forecast are unreliable past 6-7 days, which has huge implications on model output. Model output, even the ensembles, past 7 days is strictly for entertainment purposes - they really are worthless!! And to think we spend trillions of dollars fighting "global warming" based on forecasts for 10, 25, 50 years from now

[losf1981]

NBC met here in Wichita Falls emphatically stated this morning that there will be no winter precipitation this weekend.

Our Norman forecasting office says Wichita Falls and the surrounding areas still has a chance for a snow/rain/ice mix.

He either changed his mind or I just missed it but during his final forecast before switching to the today show he through in a 15-20% of winter mix tomorrow night.

[Cpv17]

Yeah right..this will definitely happen

[Yukon Cornelius]

NBC met here in Wichita Falls emphatically stated this morning that there will be no winter precipitation this weekend.

Our Norman forecasting office says Wichita Falls and the surrounding areas still has a chance for a snow/rain/ice mix.

He either changed his mind or I just missed it but during his final forecast before switching to the today show he through in a 15-20% of winter mix tomorrow night.

So, are you from the Wichita Falls area?

[ronyan]

Yeah right..this will definitely happen

That's practically 1899 level, Canadian is definitely on crack.

[orangeblood]

The most asinine Canadian run I've ever seen...wonder how far off that forecast will end up being - over/under on 30 Deg F difference ?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I hope it happens just to see people's heads explode.

We'd all have to bow down to Canadian "Wild Thing" Closer.

[orangeblood]

Wow. Hardly any activity overnight which means only one thing.

It's a combination of things. Not too much model support, and frankly uninteresting runs overnight partially.

Second people are now starting to leave for their trips so postings might be limited.

Third, as mentioned the cynicism and pessimism often deters posters from discussing things beyond. As I said before, it's bled from the tropical threads and persons who posts something to discuss down the road potential can feel discouraged to share when flooded with "always 10 days out, not real etc etc." That's how a thread dies when discussion is not progressive.

I agree, things need to stay positive and progressive around here but when your forecasting resources are essentially worthless past 7 days, it is difficult to make these medium to long range discussions more than just pure fantasy. But I guess that is winter life below the 35 N parallel

[Cpv17]

:uarrow: The most asinine Canadian run I've ever seen...wonder how far off that forecast will end up being - over/under on 30 Deg F difference ?

Probably we need to get some of these colder and wetter runs under 150 hours before I even start to get the least bit excited

[CaptinCrunch]

As we all knew deep down inside, the garbage in, garbage out of the models for Xmas was going to get everyone excited. But as others have said, cold rain and mid to lower 40s for the holidays is tons better than the 80s of last year. Just be cold for Xmas and I'm good.

Now let's focus on New Years and start the hype train up again.

[Yukon Cornelius]

NBC met here in Wichita Falls emphatically stated this morning that there will be no winter precipitation this weekend.

Our Norman forecasting office says Wichita Falls and the surrounding areas still has a chance for a snow/rain/ice mix.

He either changed his mind or I just missed it but during his final forecast before switching to the today show he through in a 15-20% of winter mix tomorrow night.

Here what Norman has up currently. May change.

[Ntxw]

Wow. Hardly any activity overnight which means only one thing.

It's a combination of things. Not too much model support, and frankly uninteresting runs overnight partially.

Second people are now starting to leave for their trips so postings might be limited.

Third, as mentioned the cynicism and pessimism often deters posters from discussing things beyond. As I said before, it's bled from the tropical threads and persons who posts something to discuss down the road potential can feel discouraged to share when flooded with "always 10 days out, not real etc etc." That's how a thread dies when discussion is not progressive.

I agree, things need to stay positive and progressive around here but when your forecasting resources are essentially worthless past 7 days, it is difficult to make these medium to long range discussions more than just pure fantasy. But I guess that is winter life below the 35 N parallel

Models will be models, always will be. What I fear is we don't end up in the rabbit hole that discussion will fall off as discussions become less progressive and more antagonizing. At the point what is the purpose of a winter thread to discuss winter weather? Might as well just do as the Florida folks with one long thread for all seasons if discussion is limited right? Next 10 days 70 and sunny, cold runs fantasy talk.

[losf1981]

Our Norman forecasting office says Wichita Falls and the surrounding areas still has a chance for a snow/rain/ice mix.

He either changed his mind or I just missed it but during his final forecast before switching to the today show he through in a 15-20% of winter mix tomorrow night.

So, are you from the Wichita Falls area?

I live in Wichita Falls.