Big ones for 2018
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- Hurricaneman
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Big ones for 2018
Here is my list of storms for 2018 with big hits in caps
Alberto: forms off the east coast from a frontal trough June 15th and peaks as it moves northeast at 50 mph June 17
Beryl: forms in the western Caribbean on June 16th and moves west making landfall in Belize on June 17 at peak intensity at 45mph
Chris: first hurricane of the season forms in the Bahamas from a stalled front July 3rd and peaks at 80mph near Bermuda July 8th
DEBBY: forms in the eastern Caribbean on July 15 and intensifies into a 135mph hurricane upon first landfall in western Cuba July 17 and re-emerges as a 110mph hurricane and gains peak intensity in the central GOM as a 140mph hurricane on July 18th and makes landfall as a 120mph hurricane around Morgan City LA on July 19th
Ernesto: forms near the coast of Africa August 12th and peaks at 125mph August 15th and goes north and out to sea
Florence: forms at 10n 45w on August 16th but is sheared by Ernesto until 60w on August 17th and reaches peak intensity in the central Caribbean as an 85 mph hurricane August 19th and landfalls in Honduras as a 60 mph tropical storm August 20th
Gordon: forms in the GOM August 17 and make landfall in Brownsville as a 50mph TS on August 18th
HELENE: forms north of PR August 20th and rapidly intensifys into a 160 mph hurricane at Bahamas landfall August 22nd and peaks the first time later that day at 185mph into Kendall, Fl and re-emerges as a 135mph hurricane later that day and peaks again at 195mph in the central GOM turning north with a little east hitting shear and dry air land falling in Mobile AL as a 120mph hurricane August 25th
Isaac: forms from tropical wave near CV islands August 27th and peaks as a 80mph hurricane in the central Atlantic August 29th and gets blasted by shear and dies
Joyce: forms near Tampa September 1st and stalls in Tampa bay and peaks as a 40mph TS heading north dying over Gainesville
Kirk: forms near Bermuda from a combination of a front and tropical wave on September 3rd making landfall in Bermuda at peak intensity of 80mph on September 4th
Leslie: forms near the Azores September 6th and peaks at 85mph September 8th and makes landfall in Normandy France as a 50mph Ts September 11
MICHAEL: forms from a tropical wave around Antigua September 13 and intensifies as it approaches the Bahamas as a 170mph hurricane September 15 as it turns north hitting Cape Hatteras as a 135mph hurricane September 18 and a second landfall near Levittown NY as a 120 mph hurricane the next day
Nadine: forms from a tropical wave NE of the islands September 21 and peaks the next day at 45mph as it gets sheared out by the tutt
Oscar: forms near Hispaniola September 25th and peaked near Bermuda as a 125mph hurricane missing landfall on September 28th
Patty: last MDR storm of the year forms in the central Atlantic October 1st and peaks at 100mph on its way out to sea October 5th
Rafael: forms in the eastern Caribbean October 5th and peaks at 75mph whole land falling in PR October 7th
SARA: strongest storm of the season forms October 12th in the western Caribbean and kind of meanders northeast of Honduras rapidly intensifying to 205mph and a similar pressure to Wilma October 15th before moving to the Yucatán channel October 18 and turning northeast into Tampa as a 160mph hurricane October 20th making another landfall in Wilmington NC as a 120mph hurricane October 21 and another landfall in Buzzards Bay, MA as a 80 mph hurricane late that day
TONY: form from a feeder band from Sara October 18 and rapidly intensifies to 145mph before moving west into Honduras as a 130 mph hurricane October 20th
Valerie: Forms 25n 50w October 31 and peaks at 60mph November 2nd
William: forms in the western Caribbean November 4th and peaks at 85mph November 6th and makes landfall in Beaumont as a 50 mph Ts November 10
Alpha: forms near the Canary Islands November 30 and hits Morocco at peak as a 50mph TS December 2nd
Beta: forms near key west December 15th and peaks off the Carolinas as a 65mph Ts December 16th
Equals 23/15/8
Alberto: forms off the east coast from a frontal trough June 15th and peaks as it moves northeast at 50 mph June 17
Beryl: forms in the western Caribbean on June 16th and moves west making landfall in Belize on June 17 at peak intensity at 45mph
Chris: first hurricane of the season forms in the Bahamas from a stalled front July 3rd and peaks at 80mph near Bermuda July 8th
DEBBY: forms in the eastern Caribbean on July 15 and intensifies into a 135mph hurricane upon first landfall in western Cuba July 17 and re-emerges as a 110mph hurricane and gains peak intensity in the central GOM as a 140mph hurricane on July 18th and makes landfall as a 120mph hurricane around Morgan City LA on July 19th
Ernesto: forms near the coast of Africa August 12th and peaks at 125mph August 15th and goes north and out to sea
Florence: forms at 10n 45w on August 16th but is sheared by Ernesto until 60w on August 17th and reaches peak intensity in the central Caribbean as an 85 mph hurricane August 19th and landfalls in Honduras as a 60 mph tropical storm August 20th
Gordon: forms in the GOM August 17 and make landfall in Brownsville as a 50mph TS on August 18th
HELENE: forms north of PR August 20th and rapidly intensifys into a 160 mph hurricane at Bahamas landfall August 22nd and peaks the first time later that day at 185mph into Kendall, Fl and re-emerges as a 135mph hurricane later that day and peaks again at 195mph in the central GOM turning north with a little east hitting shear and dry air land falling in Mobile AL as a 120mph hurricane August 25th
Isaac: forms from tropical wave near CV islands August 27th and peaks as a 80mph hurricane in the central Atlantic August 29th and gets blasted by shear and dies
Joyce: forms near Tampa September 1st and stalls in Tampa bay and peaks as a 40mph TS heading north dying over Gainesville
Kirk: forms near Bermuda from a combination of a front and tropical wave on September 3rd making landfall in Bermuda at peak intensity of 80mph on September 4th
Leslie: forms near the Azores September 6th and peaks at 85mph September 8th and makes landfall in Normandy France as a 50mph Ts September 11
MICHAEL: forms from a tropical wave around Antigua September 13 and intensifies as it approaches the Bahamas as a 170mph hurricane September 15 as it turns north hitting Cape Hatteras as a 135mph hurricane September 18 and a second landfall near Levittown NY as a 120 mph hurricane the next day
Nadine: forms from a tropical wave NE of the islands September 21 and peaks the next day at 45mph as it gets sheared out by the tutt
Oscar: forms near Hispaniola September 25th and peaked near Bermuda as a 125mph hurricane missing landfall on September 28th
Patty: last MDR storm of the year forms in the central Atlantic October 1st and peaks at 100mph on its way out to sea October 5th
Rafael: forms in the eastern Caribbean October 5th and peaks at 75mph whole land falling in PR October 7th
SARA: strongest storm of the season forms October 12th in the western Caribbean and kind of meanders northeast of Honduras rapidly intensifying to 205mph and a similar pressure to Wilma October 15th before moving to the Yucatán channel October 18 and turning northeast into Tampa as a 160mph hurricane October 20th making another landfall in Wilmington NC as a 120mph hurricane October 21 and another landfall in Buzzards Bay, MA as a 80 mph hurricane late that day
TONY: form from a feeder band from Sara October 18 and rapidly intensifies to 145mph before moving west into Honduras as a 130 mph hurricane October 20th
Valerie: Forms 25n 50w October 31 and peaks at 60mph November 2nd
William: forms in the western Caribbean November 4th and peaks at 85mph November 6th and makes landfall in Beaumont as a 50 mph Ts November 10
Alpha: forms near the Canary Islands November 30 and hits Morocco at peak as a 50mph TS December 2nd
Beta: forms near key west December 15th and peaks off the Carolinas as a 65mph Ts December 16th
Equals 23/15/8
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- galaxy401
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Re: Big ones for 2018
Isaac. Got to have that last original I name retired eventually. Florence and Gordon might cause trouble.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: Big ones for 2018
Self-explanatory. Initially, this was written not as a prediction, but given the increasing favorability of the Atlantic basin for tropical cyclogenesis next season here you go
http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season_(Xtyphooncyclonex)
http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season_(Xtyphooncyclonex)
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Re: Big ones for 2018
Here's how I fantasize the season, based on how we have been describing things.
20 named storms, 13 hurricanes, 7 majors
H Alberto
February 22 - 24 (indeed, uses warm Gulf Stream and hybrid characteristics)
70 kt / 984 mb
TS Beryl
May 25 - 28
45 kt / 1006 mb
Landfall Florida: 45 kt / 1006 mb
TS Chris
June 30 - July 6
60 kt / 997 mb
Landfall Guyana: 55 kt / 999 mb
MH Debby
July 15 - 20
110 kt / 960 mb
Landfall NE Honduras: 90 kt / 979 mb
Landfall Belize: 100 kt / 968 mb
TS Ernesto
July 31 - August 3
55 kt / 992 mb
MH Florence
August 2 - 21
130 kt / 932 mb
Landfall Fogo Island: 115 kt / 952 mb
Landfall Guadeloupe: 105 kt / 946 mb
Landfall S Dominican Rep.: 130 kt / 932 mb
Landfall E tip Cuba: 60 kt / 989 mb
Landfall SE Florida: 105 kt / 961 mb
H Gordon
August 5 - 9
65 kt / 995 mb
Landfall Yucatan: 50 kt / 1000 mb
Landfall NE Mexico: 65 kt / 995 mb
MH Helene
August 21 - September 2
155 kt / 904 mb
Landfall St. Vincent: 150 kt / 929 mb
Landfall Jamaica: 150 kt / 910 mb
Landfall Cayman Brac: 125 kt / 932 mb
Landfall W tip Cuba: 115 kt / 934 mb
Landfall Louisiana: 100 kt / 946 mb
TS Isaac
August 23 - 24
35 kt / 1011 mb
H Joyce
September 3 - 8
80 kt / 986 mb
Landfall W tip Cuba: 60 kt / 997 mb
Landfall Florida: 50 kt / 992 mb
MH Kirk
September 4 - 13
110 kt / 954 mb
MH Leslie
September 7 - 18
125 kt / 938 mb
H Michael
September 15 - 22
90 kt / 972 mb
MH Nadine
September 28 - October 8
105 kt / 946 mb
Landfall Madeira: 100 kt / 946 mb
Landfall Spain: 80 kt / 966 mb
TS Oscar
October 6 - 9
40 kt / 1006 mb
TS Patty
October 7 - 8
35 kt / 1005 mb
Landfall S Mexico: 35 kt / 1005 mb
H Rafael
October 11 - 16
75 kt / 976 mb
MH Sara
October 14 - 24
185 kt / 867 mb (no, not misprints; resembles Patricia)
Landfall Trinidad: 30 kt / 1010 mb
Landfall Bonaire: 75 kt / 990 mb
Landfall Curacao: 70 kt / 991 mb
Landfall Aruba: 70 kt / 992 mb
Landfall N tip Colombia: 55 kt / 992 mb
Landfall Providenciales: 95 kt / 967 mb
Landfall Florida: 120 kt / 930 mb
Landfall North Carolina: 90 kt / 942 mb
Landfall New Jersey: 75 kt / 948 mb
TS Tony
October 30 - November 2
60 kt / 981 mb
H Valerie
November 11 - 15
75 kt / 991 mb
Landfall Panama: 75 kt / 991 mb
20 named storms, 13 hurricanes, 7 majors
H Alberto
February 22 - 24 (indeed, uses warm Gulf Stream and hybrid characteristics)
70 kt / 984 mb
TS Beryl
May 25 - 28
45 kt / 1006 mb
Landfall Florida: 45 kt / 1006 mb
TS Chris
June 30 - July 6
60 kt / 997 mb
Landfall Guyana: 55 kt / 999 mb
MH Debby
July 15 - 20
110 kt / 960 mb
Landfall NE Honduras: 90 kt / 979 mb
Landfall Belize: 100 kt / 968 mb
TS Ernesto
July 31 - August 3
55 kt / 992 mb
MH Florence
August 2 - 21
130 kt / 932 mb
Landfall Fogo Island: 115 kt / 952 mb
Landfall Guadeloupe: 105 kt / 946 mb
Landfall S Dominican Rep.: 130 kt / 932 mb
Landfall E tip Cuba: 60 kt / 989 mb
Landfall SE Florida: 105 kt / 961 mb
H Gordon
August 5 - 9
65 kt / 995 mb
Landfall Yucatan: 50 kt / 1000 mb
Landfall NE Mexico: 65 kt / 995 mb
MH Helene
August 21 - September 2
155 kt / 904 mb
Landfall St. Vincent: 150 kt / 929 mb
Landfall Jamaica: 150 kt / 910 mb
Landfall Cayman Brac: 125 kt / 932 mb
Landfall W tip Cuba: 115 kt / 934 mb
Landfall Louisiana: 100 kt / 946 mb
TS Isaac
August 23 - 24
35 kt / 1011 mb
H Joyce
September 3 - 8
80 kt / 986 mb
Landfall W tip Cuba: 60 kt / 997 mb
Landfall Florida: 50 kt / 992 mb
MH Kirk
September 4 - 13
110 kt / 954 mb
MH Leslie
September 7 - 18
125 kt / 938 mb
H Michael
September 15 - 22
90 kt / 972 mb
MH Nadine
September 28 - October 8
105 kt / 946 mb
Landfall Madeira: 100 kt / 946 mb
Landfall Spain: 80 kt / 966 mb
TS Oscar
October 6 - 9
40 kt / 1006 mb
TS Patty
October 7 - 8
35 kt / 1005 mb
Landfall S Mexico: 35 kt / 1005 mb
H Rafael
October 11 - 16
75 kt / 976 mb
MH Sara
October 14 - 24
185 kt / 867 mb (no, not misprints; resembles Patricia)
Landfall Trinidad: 30 kt / 1010 mb
Landfall Bonaire: 75 kt / 990 mb
Landfall Curacao: 70 kt / 991 mb
Landfall Aruba: 70 kt / 992 mb
Landfall N tip Colombia: 55 kt / 992 mb
Landfall Providenciales: 95 kt / 967 mb
Landfall Florida: 120 kt / 930 mb
Landfall North Carolina: 90 kt / 942 mb
Landfall New Jersey: 75 kt / 948 mb
TS Tony
October 30 - November 2
60 kt / 981 mb
H Valerie
November 11 - 15
75 kt / 991 mb
Landfall Panama: 75 kt / 991 mb
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
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Re: Big ones for 2018
Would be VERY surprised to see another high-latitude Tropical Atlantic Irma-like track that does what it did anytime soon. Something heading North or Northeast out of the Western Caribbean in October similar to Irene (1999) or Wilma would not surprise me. Kind of surprised that we didn’t see anything more significant in the Western Caribbean this past October.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Big ones for 2018
I expect a couple big ones for 2018, most likely between August and October. Watch out in the F-M part of the alphabet.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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- Professional-Met
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Re: Big ones for 2018
Something to note: on the 2018 list, only four names have been retired since the list was introduced (Gilbert, Joan, Keith and Sandy), and there have been no double-retirements.
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- Andrew92
- S2K Supporter
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Re: Big ones for 2018
Gordon.
Every year ending with an 8 since 1968 has seen either a nasty one or a solid candidate for such a storm starting with the letter G.
1968 - Gladys
1978 - Greta
1988 - Gilbert
1998 - Georges
2008 - Gustav
-Andrew92
Every year ending with an 8 since 1968 has seen either a nasty one or a solid candidate for such a storm starting with the letter G.
1968 - Gladys
1978 - Greta
1988 - Gilbert
1998 - Georges
2008 - Gustav
-Andrew92
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-
- Tropical Depression
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Re: Big ones for 2018
Helene.... Isaac.... Joyce..... the big three of '18?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Big ones for 2018
My biggies are: Debby-Joyce-Leslie.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: Big ones for 2018
In my hypothetical and probably unrealistic hurricane season scenario for 2018 on the Hypothetical Hurricanes Blog, the big ones are Joyce, Leslie, Oscar, and William but I think the first two would be among the most significant hurricanes of the season.
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
- weathaguyry
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Re: Big ones for 2018
Something about Michael and Sara (My dad's name and my sister's name) gives me the chills
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Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Re: Big ones for 2018
There's something in the bones for either Issac and/or Joyce.
Also Sara...shivers...
Also Sara...shivers...
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Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kazmit
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Re: Big ones for 2018
Gordon, Isaac, Joyce, Oscar.
At least two of these will be "the big ones". These names give me that feeling.
At least two of these will be "the big ones". These names give me that feeling.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Big ones for 2018
Hurricaneman wrote:Here is my list of storms for 2018 with big hits in caps
...
Equals 23/15/8
I made a map based on your scenario:
Needless to say, this would probably be the ceiling for 2018.
El Niño? Slightly below average.
Cool neutral? Hyperactive.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- DANKENGINE420
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Re: Big ones for 2018
atlantic: gordon x hélène x michael
east pacific: kristy x lane
east pacific: kristy x lane
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♥ lane ♥ 20 ♥ she/her/hers/herself ♥ aussie
- DANKENGINE420
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Re: Big ones for 2018
we already have a huge arse marcus in the australian basin mate
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♥ lane ♥ 20 ♥ she/her/hers/herself ♥ aussie
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- DANKENGINE420
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Re: Big ones for 2018
HurricaneRyan wrote:Helene gives me powerful vibes as does Michael.
same here mate
what about epac so you have any for those
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♥ lane ♥ 20 ♥ she/her/hers/herself ♥ aussie
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Re: Big ones for 2018
I don't have any "big ones" for 2018 because I expect El Niño to be in place. 2019 has the potential to feature some big names as El Niño weakens/dissipates. The Atlantic is likely to be extremely warm in 2019, given post-El Niño heat transfer so soon after the last big El Niño (2015–16). The heat transfer from that event was evident in the warm +AMO in 2017 vs. 2015–16. That heat has not fully dissipated and is likely to be a factor combined with even more heat transfer in 2019. 2019 has the potential to be on a par with 2017 or 1933 if other cards are played right. The PDO is likely to be more negative in 2019 than in the past several years combined, which would favour a stronger subtropical ridge, combined with warm +AMO and likely lower sea-level pressures than in 2018. Don't be surprised if 2019 becomes one of the greatest (most active and intense) Atlantic seasons of all time. Yes, this is a bold hypothesis, but I'm willing to make it.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
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