Texas Winter 2017-2018

[weatherdude1108]

Anyone know if what is showing up on radar around Lubbock is reaching the ground or accumulating? Looks much more impressive on radar right now out there than models had shown.

A friend on FB in Lubbock said it was snowing there. He didn't say if it was accumulating. It looked like it was accumulating on roofs in places with webcams in the area.

[Ntxw]

The real silver lining in all of this is the -SOI continues it's streak. It's anomalous in a La Nina and we've had a fairly wet pattern ever since. That at least should continue, so in general one would think to side with more qpf to curb growing drought.

Code: Select all

5 Dec 2017   1012.14   1005.40   15.67   10.64   9.10
6 Dec 2017   1011.16   1005.40   10.59   10.86   9.21
7 Dec 2017   1011.15   1006.10   6.90   10.98   9.35
8 Dec 2017   1012.17   1006.60   9.60   10.69   9.45
9 Dec 2017   1013.21   1007.35   11.11   10.71   9.44
10 Dec 2017   1012.44   1008.50   1.14   10.63   9.30
11 Dec 2017   1011.42   1009.65   -10.12   10.31   9.11
12 Dec 2017   1010.50   1008.95   -11.26   9.93   8.85
13 Dec 2017   1010.91   1008.20   -5.24   9.53   8.67
14 Dec 2017   1009.89   1007.85   -8.72   8.83   8.54
15 Dec 2017   1008.75   1007.45   -12.56   8.02   8.44
16 Dec 2017   1007.94   1007.90   -19.10   6.86   8.27
17 Dec 2017   1007.96   1008.10   -20.03   5.77   8.07
18 Dec 2017   1009.05   1007.15   -9.45   5.00   8.04
19 Dec 2017   1009.83   1007.30   -6.18   4.37   8.05
20 Dec 2017   1010.91   1007.55   -1.87   3.97   8.05
21 Dec 2017   1010.55   1007.30   -2.44   3.59   7.97
22 Dec 2017   1008.41   1006.55   -9.65   2.81   7.80

[weatherdude1108]

The real silver lining in all of this is the -SOI continues it's streak. It's anomalous in a La Nina and we've had a fairly wet pattern ever since. That at least should continue, so in general one would think to side with more qpf to curb growing drought.

Code: Select all

5 Dec 2017   1012.14   1005.40   15.67   10.64   9.10
6 Dec 2017   1011.16   1005.40   10.59   10.86   9.21
7 Dec 2017   1011.15   1006.10   6.90   10.98   9.35
8 Dec 2017   1012.17   1006.60   9.60   10.69   9.45
9 Dec 2017   1013.21   1007.35   11.11   10.71   9.44
10 Dec 2017   1012.44   1008.50   1.14   10.63   9.30
11 Dec 2017   1011.42   1009.65   -10.12   10.31   9.11
12 Dec 2017   1010.50   1008.95   -11.26   9.93   8.85
13 Dec 2017   1010.91   1008.20   -5.24   9.53   8.67
14 Dec 2017   1009.89   1007.85   -8.72   8.83   8.54
15 Dec 2017   1008.75   1007.45   -12.56   8.02   8.44
16 Dec 2017   1007.94   1007.90   -19.10   6.86   8.27
17 Dec 2017   1007.96   1008.10   -20.03   5.77   8.07
18 Dec 2017   1009.05   1007.15   -9.45   5.00   8.04
19 Dec 2017   1009.83   1007.30   -6.18   4.37   8.05
20 Dec 2017   1010.91   1007.55   -1.87   3.97   8.05
21 Dec 2017   1010.55   1007.30   -2.44   3.59   7.97
22 Dec 2017   1008.41   1006.55   -9.65   2.81   7.80

What is the SOI again?

[Brent]

HRRR captures it pretty well. A burst of snow later this evening from Wichita Falls, to S-Central Oklahoma and Northeastern Oklahoma. The rich get richer

I guess we still have all of January and February left! #brightside

Hopefully....

[Ntxw]

The real silver lining in all of this is the -SOI continues it's streak. It's anomalous in a La Nina and we've had a fairly wet pattern ever since. That at least should continue, so in general one would think to side with more qpf to curb growing drought.

Code: Select all

5 Dec 2017   1012.14   1005.40   15.67   10.64   9.10
6 Dec 2017   1011.16   1005.40   10.59   10.86   9.21
7 Dec 2017   1011.15   1006.10   6.90   10.98   9.35
8 Dec 2017   1012.17   1006.60   9.60   10.69   9.45
9 Dec 2017   1013.21   1007.35   11.11   10.71   9.44
10 Dec 2017   1012.44   1008.50   1.14   10.63   9.30
11 Dec 2017   1011.42   1009.65   -10.12   10.31   9.11
12 Dec 2017   1010.50   1008.95   -11.26   9.93   8.85
13 Dec 2017   1010.91   1008.20   -5.24   9.53   8.67
14 Dec 2017   1009.89   1007.85   -8.72   8.83   8.54
15 Dec 2017   1008.75   1007.45   -12.56   8.02   8.44
16 Dec 2017   1007.94   1007.90   -19.10   6.86   8.27
17 Dec 2017   1007.96   1008.10   -20.03   5.77   8.07
18 Dec 2017   1009.05   1007.15   -9.45   5.00   8.04
19 Dec 2017   1009.83   1007.30   -6.18   4.37   8.05
20 Dec 2017   1010.91   1007.55   -1.87   3.97   8.05
21 Dec 2017   1010.55   1007.30   -2.44   3.59   7.97
22 Dec 2017   1008.41   1006.55   -9.65   2.81   7.80

What is the SOI again?

SOI is the southern oscillation index. It is the reading (formulated) pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. It measures well where convection is in the tropical Pacific. -SOI is consistent with El Nino and +SOI is consistent with La NIna. When you have big dips in SOI into negative terrority, it is usually a sign the Pacific could enhance precipitation. As has been the case the past 2 weeks.

[Ntxw]

Here is an example to illustrate monthly SOI.

2011 we all agree is a very dry year. La Nina present, and SOI predominantly above 0, often above +10



2015 was a very wet year and an El Nino, predominantly -SOI with it being below 0, often below -10

[Quixotic]

You know, when all is said and done, the models weren’t all that wrong. Drop the column 6 or 7 degrees and today would have been a monster.

[iorange55]

You know, when all is said and done, the models weren’t all that wrong. Drop the column 6 or 7 degrees and today would have been a monster.

Yeah in the longer range, but they lost the storm mid range and had us pretty dry. Then it was picked up by CMC and NAM

[gpsnowman]

Pouring rain in Irving. Man I wish the temps were about eight degrees colder. Grrrrrrrr.

[Quixotic]

FWIW, this year is acting a lot like 11-12. A Nina that acts like a nino.

[orangeblood]

FWIW, this year is acting a lot like 11-12. A Nina that acts like a nino.

Sure hope not...hoping it's more like 95-96 where core of the cold was aimed at the northeast early on and then retrograded back west as the winter progressed

[Quixotic]

FWIW, this year is acting a lot like 11-12. A Nina that acts like a nino.

Sure hope not...hoping it's more like 95-96 where core of the cold was aimed at the northeast early on and then retrograded back west as the winter progressed

Amen. I hope you’re right. I’ll take 88-89 where we got blasted in February and March. I think March had som -38 departures.

[Brent]

FWIW, this year is acting a lot like 11-12. A Nina that acts like a nino.

Sure hope not...hoping it's more like 95-96 where core of the cold was aimed at the northeast early on and then retrograded back west as the winter progressed

Amen. I hope you’re right. I’ll take 88-89 where we got blasted in February and March. I think March had som -38 departures.

Anything but 11-12 ugh

[bubba hotep]

Nice cold t-storm rolling through my area.

[Ntxw]

Sure hope not...hoping it's more like 95-96 where core of the cold was aimed at the northeast early on and then retrograded back west as the winter progressed

Amen. I hope you’re right. I’ll take 88-89 where we got blasted in February and March. I think March had som -38 departures.

Anything but 11-12 ugh

2008-2009 is another option. Hurricane hit (Ike) and early December Houston snow. Also second year Nina

[Ntxw]

Only 2 weeks out, not that long

[Lagreeneyes03]

35 degrees in Grapevine and surrounding areas, not sure that this was forecast. Rain still falling.. Just need 3-4 more degrees! Could it happen?

[aggiecutter]

8" of rain in Texarkana over the past 10 days from 4 different systems total.

[wxman57]

Only 2 weeks out, not that long

http://i67.tinypic.com/rad9q1.png

I'm quite sure that snow storm for the DFW area on the 5th of January will happen. Something is definitely making the GFS act very strangely of late. I don't think I've ever seen it perform so poorly.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Only 2 weeks out, not that long

http://i67.tinypic.com/rad9q1.png

I'm quite sure that snow storm for the DFW area on the 5th of January will happen. Something is definitely making the GFS act very strangely of late. I don't think I've ever seen it perform so poorly.

Wasn't the GFS "Upgraded" not too long ago?