Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro coming in a bit more amped up over the Pacific, does that allow the trough to dig into the SW or will NW flow win out again?

[Brent]

cold rain on the Euro

especially Thursday

cold drizzle Tuesday/Wednesday

No shortage of cold and dreary

then its east of us by Friday

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro was a step back in the right direction.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro was a step back in the right direction.

Sure was. And take a look at that nice trough digging into the SW at the end of the run. Starting to get some agreement on that.

[Ntxw]

Yeah Euro has a southern stream connection with low 40s. 850s marginal, kind of like the GFS and CMC mid to late week

[TheProfessor]

If one of the storms is to pan out it will probably be next week. I was lucky to win the student ticket lottery for the Ohio State bowl game, which just so happens to be at AT&T stadium on the 29th. would not surprise me if we got a winter storm that makes travel difficult around that time.

[EnnisTx]

If one of the storms is to pan out it will probably be next week. I was lucky to win the student ticket lottery for the Ohio State bowl game, which just so happens to be at AT&T stadium on the 29th. would not surprise me if we got a winter storm that makes travel difficult around that time.

I've already guaranteed it will happen, I'm going to the game.

[Ntxw]

Hopeful for a good pattern. From EPS

[Cpv17]

Hopeful for a good pattern. From EPS

That looks pretty good!

[TheProfessor]

If one of the storms is to pan out it will probably be next week. I was lucky to win the student ticket lottery for the Ohio State bowl game, which just so happens to be at AT&T stadium on the 29th. would not surprise me if we got a winter storm that makes travel difficult around that time.

I've already guaranteed it will happen, I'm going to the game.

Nice! I think It's going to be a great game.

[EnnisTx]

If one of the storms is to pan out it will probably be next week. I was lucky to win the student ticket lottery for the Ohio State bowl game, which just so happens to be at AT&T stadium on the 29th. would not surprise me if we got a winter storm that makes travel difficult around that time.

I've already guaranteed it will happen, I'm going to the game.

Nice! I think It's going to be a great game.

I think it's going to be a barn burnner !

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS comes close to phasing the southern and northern stream disturbances across the SW. As it is, it looks like there will be some energy coming out of the SW as the cold air crashes in.

[Cpv17]

GFS is beginning to look a bit interesting in the 7-10 day timeframe.

[Brent]

Arctic front and winter storm to welcome in 2018 literally lol

[Cpv17]

Arctic front and winter storm to welcome in 2018 literally lol

yep, but won’t get excited yet. Maybe if it’s still showing it on Wednesday then I will.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS is beginning to look a bit interesting in the 7-10 day timeframe.

It is, but I'm not sold, and I'm not looking to get burned again
One thing I notice is that pressure is not rising very impressively over NW Canada or Alaska. There some minor positive height anomalies in that region during the time in question (hr 180-210), which I believe are responsible for the cold air push that the gfs shows during that time, but it seems far from convincing. This seems to be more of a bowling ball ULL setup than the classic -EPO setup we were chasing the last 2 weeks. The models do seem to be on a more cautiously positive trend though. Once again we'll just have to wait and see.

[Cpv17]

GFS is beginning to look a bit interesting in the 7-10 day timeframe.

It is, but I'm not sold, and I'm not looking to get burned again
One thing I notice is that pressure is not rising very impressively over NW Canada or Alaska. There some minor positive height anomalies in that region during the time in question (hr 180-210), which I believe are responsible for the cold air push that the gfs shows during that time, but it seems far from convincing. This seems to be more of a bowling ball ULL setup than the classic -EPO setup we were chasing the last 2 weeks. The models do seem to be on a more cautiously positive trend though. Once again we'll just have to wait and see.

We’ll see one of these times if it’s actually right lol

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah I'm not believing anything the gfs shows past 24 hours. Every week it shows some degree of cold and winter storm for parts of the south, only to keep pushing it back by 7-10 days as time progresses. One of the worst models this winter by far. Amazing how much better it is during the summer but is beyond atrosious for winter for the southern US.

[JeremyC]

Hello everyone...new to posting on here...I stumbled upon this site a few years ago, when I lived in Houston, and always enjoyed reading the commentary and analysis from the folks on here. It's really cool to even just read messages from other fellow like-minded weather enthusiasts--from the first indication of whether a possible event is on the horizon and may/may not happen, to just prior to an event that has already been deemed as inevitable (and preparations are underway and it's exciting in many respects), to the actual event itself, and what other people are actually seeing on the ground firsthand--I find it all very fascinating. I'm glad to finally join on here--during school times I get quite busy, but I will keep up and post several things that cross my mind that I think are worth relating to the overall convo.

[Tireman4]

Hello everyone...new to posting on here...I stumbled upon this site a few years ago, when I lived in Houston, and always enjoyed reading the commentary and analysis from the folks on here. It's really cool to even just read messages from other fellow like-minded weather enthusiasts--from the first indication of whether a possible event is on the horizon and may/may not happen, to just prior to an event that has already been deemed as inevitable (and preparations are underway and it's exciting in many respects), to the actual event itself, and what other people are actually seeing on the ground firsthand--I find it all very fascinating. I'm glad to finally join on here--during school times I get quite busy, but I will keep up and post several things that cross my mind that I think are worth relating to the overall convo.

Welcone to the family. It can get crazy...