WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Going off the radar and the 50kt ascat leading in, there may have been typhoon
strength winds in the core band. Without recon its a pointless argument.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM
SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF TS 33W. THE
LOCATION IS BASED ON A 221800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING STRONG CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MASS OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
(28-29 CELSIUS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
IS WEAK. TS 33W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. TS 33W WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY
TAU 24 BEFORE REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER
TAU 36 TS 33W WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DUE TO
INCREASED VWS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72 TS 33W
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN VIETNAM WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. BY THIS TIME LAND INTERACTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TS 33W AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN VIETNAM. TS
TEMBIN WILL EXIT BACK OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AROUND TAU 90 AS A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM WHERE IT WILL REMAIN IN UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
AND WILL FURTHER WEAKEN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PRIOR TO TAU 72. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72 THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY AND AN
INCREASED SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKS WITH THE JTWC TRACK IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS, WITH ONE MEMBER INDICATING A NORTHWARD
TURN AND THREE MEMBERS INDICATING A SOUTHWARD TURN. OVERALL THE JTWC
FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[doomhaMwx]

Map showing the estimated rainfall accumulations dumped by tropical storms Kai-tak and Tembin from the period Dec 13-22, 2017.


https://pmm.nasa.gov/extreme-weather/tr ... g-analysis

[euro6208]

Expected to become a typhoon before Palawan landfall.

WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS 33W. THE INITIAL
POSITION OF TS 33W IS BASED ON A 222257Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED
ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG WHILE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WEAK. TS 33W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 33W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STR WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. TS 33W WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24
AND MAINTAIN THAT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TS 33W WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DUE TO INCREASED VWS IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INTERACTION WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72, TS 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN VIETNAM
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THE WEAKENING OF THE STR WILL
EVENTUALLY ALLOW TS 33W TO BEGIN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AS IT
ROUNDS WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TS TEMBIN WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GULF OF THAILAND AROUND TAU 90 AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PRIOR TO TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72 MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT. OVERALL THE JTWC
FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

I expect the death toll from Tembin to surpass that of Kai-tak. I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches above a hundred. Initial reports have just come in from several towns in Zamboanga and Lanao provinces and they don't sound good at all.

[Alyono]

I expect the death toll from Tembin to surpass that of Kai-tak. I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches above a hundred. Initial reports have just come in from several towns in Zamboanga and Lanao provinces and they don't sound good at all.

already has. over 90 dead so far. Shaping up as a Washi possibly

Mindanao is simply exceptionally prone to flooding and mudslides

[dexterlabio]

already has. over 90 dead so far. Shaping up as a Washi possibly

Mindanao is simply exceptionally prone to flooding and mudslides

Casualties from Washi came from the cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan. There are several reports coming in from different Mindanao areas, this time with Tembin.

The government always claims to be better prepared after previous calamities, but I believe the real solution here is not simply setting up evacuation and relief centers. The issue here lies with poor urban planning, and that is where the government should start finding solutions.

[doomhaMwx]

Intensifying as it approaches Palawan.
JMA gave 60kts @ 06Z—just below typhoon intensity.

STS 1727 (Tembin)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 23 December 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 23 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°50' (7.8°)
E118°50' (118.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 370 km (200 NM)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

XPQ28 KNES 230957
TCSWNP

A. 33W (TEMBIN)

B. 23/0830Z

C. 7.6N

D. 118.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.0 IS BASED ON 1.75 DEG WELL DEFINED CDO. THE 0634Z
SSMI PASS ASSISTED IN DETERMING THE EXTENT OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET AND
PT ARE UNAVAILABLE AS SYSTEM WAS OVERLAND 24HRS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

silly x2 post

[mrbagyo]

Looks like it would pass very close or directly ovr Balabac Island, Southern Palawan. They will see significant impact.

[mrbagyo]

According to PAGASA, Tembin has made landfall over Balabac island at 11:00PM local time.

Idk if the exact center really did cross the island, Southern Palawan doesnt have radar coverage.
Anyway, Balabac group surely received significant impact.
I messaged one of the property owner in Bugsuk island, he said residents there are prepared for the storm. I have no idea what kind of preparation the residents did - Balabac group of islands rarely experience this kind of event. I hope they're ok

[Alyono]

still running well below Dvorak estimates

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas233.png

this we should give little weight to the Dvorak estimates for this typhoon, since they havn't exactly been that close

[Alyono]

this report says more than 200 killed

https://watchers.news/2017/12/23/more-t ... um=twitter

at this rate, this may be Washi 2.0 when all is said and done

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Typhoon at 65kts.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH TY 33W. THE CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL LOCATION IS BASED ON A 231800Z
HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING STRONG CONVECTION
INDICATIVE OF A TYPHOON STRENGTH STORM. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOW
FAVORABLE TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG
WITH GOOD NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM
BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. TY 33W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 48. THROUGH TAU 24, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS FORECAST FROM TAU 12
TO TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TY TEMBIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASED VWS, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTION WITH
LAND. TY 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 48 AS IT SKIRTS
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM. TY 33W WILL THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE
GULF OF THAILAND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, WHICH REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 33W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD A
WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. TY 33W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT, TY 33W WILL DISSIPATE BY
TAU 96. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 DEC 2017 Time : 211000 UTC
Lat : 7:57:17 N Lon : 115:06:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 982.4mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.0

Center Temp : -84.3C Cloud Region Temp : -84.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 100km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.5 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 232110
TCSWNP

A. 33W (TEMBIN)

B. 23/2030Z

C. 8.5N

D. 115.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI

H. REMARKS...1912Z SSMI DATA SHOWED AN EYE. IN CONVENTIONAL EIR IMAGERY
THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN B RESULTING IN A DT OF 5.0. PT AGREES WHILE
MET IS 4.5 BASED ON A 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. FT IS BASED ON
PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

23/1912Z 8.1N 115.6E SSMI


...TURK

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

JMA dropping the ball now with this typhoon.