Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is another run of Arctic dump around New Years. 1050+HP and -20s from Montana to Minnesota.

Check out the tight gradient

-20s into Kansas and DFW in the low teens

[South Texas Storms]

Baja low comes out a bit too fast for frozen precip across TX this run.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is horrible !! So many phantom winter storms

[Cpv17]

Gfs is horrible !! So many phantom winter storms

Don’t pay attention to precipitation this far out. No model can accurately predict that a week out. Just focus on the cold. As long as it keeps showing cold then I like our chances at a winter storm.

[Ntxw]

Canadian has a strong front for the same time. Low and mid teens NY and the day after, highs in the 20s. For once I think the GFS is colder than the Canadian

Will the Euro dump cold again? Or set a new trend?

[wxman22]

Gfs is horrible !! So many phantom winter storms

I don't think this is a phantom storm, the question is will it be just rain showers, or will we have enough moisture and energy to work with once the cold air is in place for frozen precip? Only time will tell...

[South Texas Storms]

CMC hints at some light frozen precip across portions of north and central TX at the end of the run.

I think we're gonna have some chances for wintry mischief late this month into the first half of January. Looks like the cold will be here, just need to time it right with a disturbance.

[Ntxw]

Gfs is horrible !! So many phantom winter storms

I don't think this is a phantom storm, the question is will it be just rain showers, or will we have enough moisture and energy to work with once the cold air is in place for frozen precip? Only time will tell...

There hasn't been any phantom storms within 200 hours. They have mostly materialized, it's just that they have not been as cold as modeled.

[Brent]

Canadian has a strong front for the same time. Low and mid teens NY and the day after, highs in the 20s. For once I think the GFS is colder than the Canadian

Will the Euro dump cold again? Or set a new trend?

CMC is in the 60s NYE before the temps plunge to the 20s

Yeah I don't think I've ever seen the CMC warmer even the Euro is colder than that

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS is showing a similar pattern to the Canadian in 9-10 days. Both models have a trough digging SE out of the Rockies towards TX with cold temps in place. This may be another time period to watch for potential frozen precip across TX.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That gradient is REALLY tight Ntx. Thats brutal cold with the wind factored in. I just hope the cold doesnt get wrapped in with the ULL/Polar vortex. (It may not be the actual PV)

The GFS seems to be coming some of the energy with the low. I think this is a problem with the GFS though, could be wrong. That big high should crash into the GOM, but it wants to shunt it east.

Look at the temps. Its cold in the source region now .

[Cpv17]

That gradient is REALLY tight Ntx. Thats brutal cold with the wind factored in. I just hope the cold doesnt get wrapped in with the ULL/Polar vortex. (It may not be the actual PV)

The GFS seems to be coming some of the energy with the low. I think this is a problem with the GFS though, could be wrong. That big high should crash into the GOM, but it wants to shunt it east.

Look at the temps. Its cold in the source region now .

I’ve noticed that on most of the models this year, the coldest anomalies are going more south and east vs straight south. Why is this?? High pressure to the west??

[stormlover2013]

Gfs has been so inconsistent the last 2 weeks, can’t trust a model unless it’s 2 days out

[Ntxw]

That gradient is REALLY tight Ntx. Thats brutal cold with the wind factored in. I just hope the cold doesnt get wrapped in with the ULL/Polar vortex. (It may not be the actual PV)

The GFS seems to be coming some of the energy with the low. I think this is a problem with the GFS though, could be wrong. That big high should crash into the GOM, but it wants to shunt it east.

Look at the temps. Its cold in the source region now .

In the next few days, air is draining from Siberia across the pole and seeding Canada. But you're right, it's pretty cold up there now.



Day 7 forecast

[Ntxw]

That gradient is REALLY tight Ntx. Thats brutal cold with the wind factored in. I just hope the cold doesnt get wrapped in with the ULL/Polar vortex. (It may not be the actual PV)

The GFS seems to be coming some of the energy with the low. I think this is a problem with the GFS though, could be wrong. That big high should crash into the GOM, but it wants to shunt it east.

Look at the temps. Its cold in the source region now .

I’ve noticed that on most of the models this year, the coldest anomalies are going more south and east vs straight south. Why is this?? High pressure to the west??

The +PNA. You want it off or along the west coast, not into the Rockies.

December temp anomaly tendencies with a +PNA

[Cpv17]

That gradient is REALLY tight Ntx. Thats brutal cold with the wind factored in. I just hope the cold doesnt get wrapped in with the ULL/Polar vortex. (It may not be the actual PV)

The GFS seems to be coming some of the energy with the low. I think this is a problem with the GFS though, could be wrong. That big high should crash into the GOM, but it wants to shunt it east.

Look at the temps. Its cold in the source region now .

I’ve noticed that on most of the models this year, the coldest anomalies are going more south and east vs straight south. Why is this?? High pressure to the west??

The +PNA. You want it off or along the west coast, not into the Rockies.

Gotcha. Well that is hurting our chances. Still looks really cold, but nothing like the cold forecasted from Louisiana all the way into the Northeast.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS doesn't show much in the way of cold air in the long range, but it sure looks active. Several troughs digging into the SW U.S. and Mexico.

6+ inches of rain across portions of southeast TX over the next 16 days.

[bubba hotep]

Not surprising, the GFS in the longer range is showing a series of systems kicking out of the SW with lots of rain for Texas. This would fit with the MJO cycling into 2/3 in January during a Nina. The Pacific pattern should retrograde allowing for a mean trough across the SW with Texas in the ejection zone. Biggest problem, this kind of pattern has Pacific air flooding WCAN and there wouldn't be much cold air to work with.

[South Texas Storms]

Not surprising, the GFS in the longer range is showing a series of systems kicking out of the SW with lots of rain for Texas. This would fit with the MJO cycling into 2/3 in January during a Nina. The Pacific pattern should retrograde allowing for a mean trough across the SW with Texas in the ejection zone. Biggest problem, this kind of pattern has Pacific air flooding WCAN and there wouldn't be much cold air to work with.

And that would still be awesome. Precipitation is much more important than cold air, especially in a La Nina. It's going to be critical that we keep the soils wet across the state. The wetter soil would lead to a lower chance of a crippling drought next summer.

[Cpv17]

Well that run of the GFS wasn’t quite as cold as the 18z earlier. Still very cold though. The high pressure wasn’t quite as strong and didn’t push as far south as it did on the 18z. Hopefully it’s not a trend of warmer runs.