Texas Winter 2017-2018

[JDawg512]

:uarrow:
That sure is impressive for an ensemble mean for just over a week out. Confidence is increasing that a big cold shot may be arriving in TX to start 2018.

It may be the climax of the cold dome that enveloped the continent starting late last week. Last Friday's front was first surge, with reinforcing shots throughout the coming week. As many posts have noted, STJ will be a problem and difficult to forecast.

Euro is running

Edit: The SOI is still running negative, so no surprise of the active STJ. Very odd for a Nina to go this long with -SOI for any period. In tandem with this, DFW is having a wetter than normal December against Nina climo.

Code: Select all

11 Dec 2017   1011.42   1009.65   -10.12   10.31   9.11
12 Dec 2017   1010.50   1008.95   -11.26   9.93   8.85
13 Dec 2017   1010.91   1008.20   -5.24   9.53   8.67
14 Dec 2017   1009.89   1007.85   -8.72   8.83   8.54
15 Dec 2017   1008.75   1007.45   -12.56   8.02   8.44
16 Dec 2017   1007.94   1007.90   -19.10   6.86   8.27
17 Dec 2017   1007.96   1008.10   -20.03   5.77   8.07
18 Dec 2017   1009.05   1007.15   -9.45   5.00   8.04
19 Dec 2017   1009.83   1007.30   -6.18   4.37   8.05
20 Dec 2017   1010.91   1007.55   -1.87   3.97   8.05
21 Dec 2017   1010.55   1007.30   -2.44   3.59   7.97
22 Dec 2017   1008.41   1006.55   -9.65   2.81   7.80
23 Dec 2017   1006.79   1005.50   -12.61   1.90   7.57
24 Dec 2017   1006.92   1005.10   -9.86   1.25   7.30

First off, hope everyone has a Merry Christmas!

If the PDO is still positive that may be what's helping sustain the more active subtropical jet. The question is how long will it stay active? Jan and Feb could end up being pretty dry.

[bubba hotep]

Merry Christmas all!

[DonWrk]

Merry Christmas! Here’s to ending and kicking off the New Year on a good note!

[Ntxw]

12z GFS -30s along the Montana/ND border. Widespread -20s in the northern plains. 1058mb high descending from Canada next weekend so far in the run

baja low is a little slower this run

[Brent]

1057 mb high over Omaha on New Years Day

DFW sitting in the lower 20s

only frozen precip is near New Orleans

CMC is just warm enough for a cold rain New Years Day with ice in Texarkana and points NE

[Ntxw]

CMC is about 24 hours slower, and actually splits it into two separate big highs

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is more digging in split flow out west after the cold dome settles. Might be a winter storm behind it

[gatorcane]

This New Year’s arctic front looks rather potent according to the GFS. Has a freeze all the way down into SW Florida Jan 2nd. Texas looks brutally cold. But we have been fooled before by the model.

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't bet on the specifics being correct beyond a couple of days. The 00Z ECMWF was about 24 to 36 hours faster with the front arriving early Saturday versus the New Years Eve/New Years Day solutions of the GFS/CMC.

[wxman22]

Canadian for the past few runs has been showing a storm a couple of days after New Years. But by far this is the most impressive its shown the storm so far, of course take it fwiw lol

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't bet on the specifics being correct beyond a couple of days. The 00Z ECMWF was about 24 to 36 hours faster with the front arriving early Saturday versus the New Years Eve/New Years Day solutions of the GFS/CMC.

Yeah I don't expect the models to catch the temps right. GFS runs all last night had DFW at 34F for a low . It got to 27...

Still though even with varying HP intensity run to run, model to model it's a good sign the air mass is quite cold. Origin of this air mass appears to be from the Canadian Archipelago. Keep this till Wednesday and we can track the cold air move

[Brent]

here comes the big January 3-4th storm on the GFS

It starts as rain and a lot of it

some frozen precip west and north of DFW

[Ntxw]

Short term, GFS doesn't get DFW much above 40 this week until Friday. Then pre-frontal 50s Sat before the plunge

Right now at 52.9F for the month is good enough for top 10 warmest but will lose that distinction next week or so.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking good. Keep giving us promising news, models.

[Ntxw]

For North Texas folks, keep your eyes on Tuesday night/Weds morning (tomorrow night). RGEM and NAM has surface temps around freezing with a weak disturbance overhead. 850mb temps around 0C and dewpoints in the low 20s. If the guidance is underestimating the STJ (it's going to be mostly cloudy today despite models saying we would be fair until evening) then it might get a little interesting

[opticsguy]

12Z Wednesday at DFW, wet bulb temp below freezing from 850mb down to the surface. None of the models predicted anything like the 3.5" of rain we got last week, FWIW

[Cpv17]

Merry Christmas everyone. That 12z run of the GFS didn’t quite make sense to me. The high pressure actually maintained its strength very well, as far south as southern Nebraska which is the farthest south I’ve seen it hold its strength on the past few runs. Yet, it only has my area get down to 29 degrees which is the warmest it’s showed yet. You would think it would’ve been the coldest run yet with the way that high pressure is setup.

[CaptinCrunch]

Merry Christmas

It was a nice 28 this morning, felt awesome outside drinking coffee.

This week still looks good to stay at or just below average temperature wise which is just fine with me. Not going to buy into the GFS this go around, I'm just going to be patient and see what happens.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I really want this cold blast next weekend, after that, i need some mountain snow in CO for my annual trip to Crested Butte!

[Cpv17]

The GFS has a 1058mb high and the Euro only has a 1047mb high on the 12z runs.