Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

Euro ends the run dropping the coldest air of the season into DFW (for DFW), temps are dropping into the 20s as the run ends.

[Ntxw]

FWIW, the FV3 (potential GFS replacement down the road) looks a lot the Euro on NYE. Note that the run for it is 06z. The data takes longer to come out by a run or so given experimental. It's also really cold going sub 16F for lows

[Cpv17]

The CPC isn’t buying what the models are saying. They’re not very enthusiastic about cold coming into TX.

[Ntxw]

The CPC isn’t buying what the models are saying. They’re not very enthusiastic about cold coming into TX.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

They seem to be siding more with the EPS which slides it more to the northeastern US

[Cpv17]

The CPC isn’t buying what the models are saying. They’re not very enthusiastic about cold coming into TX.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

They seem to be siding more with the EPS which slides it more to the northeastern US

Yeah, but the last time models showed big time cold in TX a week or two ago the CPC agreed and it never came to fruition. They were wrong then and could be wrong again.

[Brent]

FWD definitely buying it to a point for being so far out

Sunday mentioning freezing rain

Lows around 20 NYE with wind chills around 5

Mid 30s NYD

Sunday is more likely to be cooler given that even the slower GFS
solution brings the frontal boundary through Central TX by
daybreak. Interestingly enough, the European brings another front
through the day on Sunday. Both models produce QPF, so I`ll
continue with a mention of low PoPs across just about the entire
area. The cold air in place warrants some light freezing/frozen
precipitation and for now, I`ll carry a very light winter mix
along the Red River, with just a cold rain elsewhere.

[Ntxw]

The CPC isn’t buying what the models are saying. They’re not very enthusiastic about cold coming into TX.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

They seem to be siding more with the EPS which slides it more to the northeastern US

Yeah, but the last time models showed big time cold in TX a week or two ago the CPC agreed and it never came to fruition. They were wrong then and could be wrong again.

Well technically they only put out probability of it being below normal. The maps don't depict intensity only odds of below. Which did verify since we are below normal now since Friday. The dark blues are areas of greatest confidence of consistent below averages

[Cpv17]

They seem to be siding more with the EPS which slides it more to the northeastern US

Yeah, but the last time models showed big time cold in TX a week or two ago the CPC agreed and it never came to fruition. They were wrong then and could be wrong again.

Well technically they only put out probability of it being below normal. The maps don't depict intensity only odds of below. Which did verify since we are below normal now since Friday. The dark blues are areas of greatest confidence of consistent below averages

Yeah I know, but I don’t look at it that way I look at it as the darker blues and purples being way below normal and the light blues only being slightly below normal. I think that’s just human nature to view it that way.

[dhweather]

Merry Christmas to everybody! I hope you have had a great day

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is a bit slower with front, but sends a behemoth 1061mb high

[Brent]

1061 mb high

Rain NYE

then temps plunge next Monday all day

[Ntxw]

This is quite a cold run, low teens at DFW and single digits approaching Red River. Low to mid 20s down to Houston and freezes along the coast.

[Brent]

Tuesday gonna be lucky to see 25 degrees in DFW

[Ntxw]

Tuesday gonna be lucky to see 25 degrees in DFW

We need NYE to deliver some snow like on the Euro. That way it can stick around for a couple days

[gto67]

Would you please tell me what NYE means? Thanks

[Brent]

yeah its that cold without snow

NYE=New Years Eve

[Cpv17]

Pretty cold run on the 18z GFS. Void of precipitation though

[Brent]

then it warms up and rains after that of course

[stormlover2013]

Don’t pay attention to models until about 2 days before the event !

[gto67]

I'm bad.