Texas Winter 2017-2018

[DonWrk]

Don’t pay attention to models until about 2 days before the event !

Then how do you know if there’s going to be an event in the first place?

[Cpv17]

Don’t pay attention to models until about 2 days before the event !

Then how do you know if there’s going to be an event in the first place?

He’s salty because of how bad the models burned us last time. I can understand that though.

[DonWrk]

Don’t pay attention to models until about 2 days before the event !

Then how do you know if there’s going to be an event in the first place?

He’s salty because of how bad the models burned us last time. I can understand that though.

Totally understand but no need to repeat the same every page. Now back to winter weather.

[stormlover2013]

No, just saying don’t get excited right now. Models have had a hard time, 2 days before the event is where u need pay attention, they have been so up and down.

[Ntxw]

Tomorrow is Tuesday so it will be coming in less than a week. If there were any significant shifts, they probably would have already happened. Euro had a major shift over the past weekend, I don't think it will change too drastically except for maybe pinning down timing of front and precise temps.

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies keep N. Texas at avg. rainfall and below avg. temps. However, it gets wetter and warmer as the run wears on. The run ends in Feb and it looks like a wet & warm pattern by that point.

[bubba hotep]

I like how the NAM skips over most N. Texas lol

[Ntxw]

NAM has DFW 33-35 and 850s dangerously close to 0C tomorrow night into Weds morning with precip in the vicinity. Highs tomorrow could be mid 30s

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Any surprises possible for NoTex tomorrow? Dew points are in the low 20s right now.

[bubba hotep]

NAMs are coming in wetter for DFW, I think temps might not be an issue and pleasantly surprised to see QPF going up.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Not to raise too many eyebrows, but the setup as the HP is crossing into the US looks quite similar to 1989. -EPO or +PNA quite some time before it, then cold air builds and spills into the US.

Around the 22nd or 23rd of 1989, the trough then expanded down to the Gulf coast to drag the HP down to the GOM. This coming weekend, the trough isnt expected to do this. Other than that. Looks fairly similar. What do you guys think?

[JayDT]

So is there a bit of a chance for tomorrow?

[Ntxw]

So is there a bit of a chance for tomorrow?

Likely not, but you never know. If the weak disturbance and STJ are more than modeled, temps will be very close. It's very cold, if we can just wring out some good moisture it could. The 41F FW is forecasting for the airport might be a bit optimistic or maybe a midnight high

[Ntxw]

Also we likely repeat Wednesday the same as tomorrow. Probably mid 30s, weak disturbance again overhead

[Ntxw]

End of the NAM run. 1052mb high makes an appearance in the Canadian front range/prairies.

[JayDT]

So is there a bit of a chance for tomorrow?

Likely not, but you never know. If the weak disturbance and STJ are more than modeled, temps will be very close. It's very cold, if we can just wring out some good moisture it could. The 41F FW is forecasting for the airport might be a bit optimistic or maybe a midnight high

Ohh ok. Well I hope we can get a pleasant little surprise. Is this one of those setups where it has to be 32 degrees or below to get snow or sleet or whatever is possible?? Or could we get lucky at 33 or 34? lol

[JayDT]

Also we likely repeat Wednesday the same as tomorrow. Probably mid 30s, weak disturbance again overhead

This I did not know... I really thought today was gonna be the coldest day out of these next three days. Turns out it might be the warmest

[Ntxw]

Also we likely repeat Wednesday the same as tomorrow. Probably mid 30s, weak disturbance again overhead

This I did not know... I really thought today was gonna be the coldest day out of these next three days. Turns out it might be the warmest

Today is the warmest day of the next 3. Sprawling high pressure comes down in the mid 1040s. It just looked warmer from last week because the models generally held it up to the north due to semi zonal flow aloft, but as you know it's bleeding south. GFS middle of last week had us in the 50s and 60s for tomorrow and Weds....

Ohh ok. Well I hope we can get a pleasant little surprise. Is this one of those setups where it has to be 32 degrees or below to get snow or sleet or whatever is possible?? Or could we get lucky at 33 or 34? lol

850s are pretty chilly, so I think it's probably sleet/snow if it happens or just plain very chilly rain.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

End of the NAM run. 1052mb high makes an appearance in the Canadian front range/prairies.

This would be in a better position then what the GFS is showing, and much stronger.

[Ntxw]

truncated it is much better. Colder in W Canada than Central Canada. PV lobe is further west and more primed to ooze along the front range. Euro and CMC is closer to that look, GFS is furthest east with the high. Wonder if it will cave west?