Texas Winter 2017-2018
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:I hope the 0z GFS is wrong with those cold temperatures. That would likely be a damaging arctic outbreak.
Thankfully it's on it's own right now. 0z Canadian doesn't show extreme cold. 20s-30s.
1063mb would make it top 3 strongest on record in the lower 48. I'm not sure I believe it. It's like a model predicting a Cat 5 but HP version. And it's not 200+ hours
Yeah I'm not worried about it yet. The GFS really has been bad lately. If other models come on board I will become concerned.
Having the NAM show 1052mb in it's far range kind of gets me thinking though. And the Euro has been trending with more HP. Either way, no matter what model you pick it's likely going to be a cold outbreak in what is already cold air in place. That's often how you can get very cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Precipitation when it's that cold would be downright devastating for Texas. 

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

74 in Houston when its 24 in DFW. Thats rare.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Looking on the GFS I was trying to find origin of this air mass and HP comes from. The HP is a lobe coming from Greenland while the air mass is partially with the drainage of Siberia this week. Siberia is in the -40s and -50s right now and it all gets shoved over the pole from the big Arctic 500mb ridge as the days go and they go above normal into the "-10s and -20s"


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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
0z UKMET looks much warmer than the GFS. Kinda similar to the Canadian.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Cpv17 wrote:For it to show it at hour 150 will turn some heads. That’s less than a week out. One thing for sure is that it’s looking quite cold next week.
Yeah, the single digits runs are usually 200+ and more often 300+ hours out. You never seen them under 200 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
The GFS is showing very dry conditions over the next 2 weeks across TX. Much of the state gets less than 0.50 inch of precip.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
South Texas Storms wrote:The GFS is showing very dry conditions over the next 2 weeks across TX. Much of the state gets less than 0.50 inch of precip.
Yep. Probably because it’s just way too cold for any precipitation. The strength of that high would push out all the moisture into the Gulf.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Ntxw wrote:Cpv17 wrote:For it to show it at hour 150 will turn some heads. That’s less than a week out. One thing for sure is that it’s looking quite cold next week.
Yeah, the single digits runs are usually 200+ and more often 300+ hours out. You never seen them under 200 hours.
I was just thinking... remember when New Years was 300+ hours out and the GFS showed single digits in DFW that one run?
Now here we are...

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:Ntxw wrote:Cpv17 wrote:For it to show it at hour 150 will turn some heads. That’s less than a week out. One thing for sure is that it’s looking quite cold next week.
Yeah, the single digits runs are usually 200+ and more often 300+ hours out. You never seen them under 200 hours.
I was just thinking... remember when New Years was 300+ hours out and the GFS showed single digits in DFW that one run?
Now here we are...
Same thing for those massive highs. Even saw some over 1070mb a week or so ago that kept showing up over 200+ hours out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Looks to be another cold run for the Euro. 1052mb high in sw Canada at hour 96 around the same place the Nam had it earlier.
Edit: scratch that. This run of the Euro is not that cold at all.
Edit: scratch that. This run of the Euro is not that cold at all.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
0z Euro is much closer to the Canadian than the GFS. Don't think the Euro will be showing record breaking cold this run.
The difference between the Euro and GFS is huge at 144 hours.
The difference between the Euro and GFS is huge at 144 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
South Texas Storms wrote:0z Euro is much closer to the Canadian than the GFS. Don't think the Euro will be showing record breaking cold this run.
The difference between the Euro and GFS is huge at 144 hours.
yup nothing extreme through NYE
around 40 for highs next weekend(doesn't warmup like the GFS before the front either)
Temps actually rising Sunday Night on the Euro well above freezing

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:0z Euro is much closer to the Canadian than the GFS. Don't think the Euro will be showing record breaking cold this run.
The difference between the Euro and GFS is huge at 144 hours.
yup nothing extreme through NYE
around 40 for highs next weekend(doesn't warmup like the GFS before the front either)
Temps actually rising Sunday Night on the Euro
Yep GFS is all on it's own regarding the extreme cold temps next week. What a surprise.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
looks like the Euro is again east of us with the worst of the cold
40s and rain on New Years Day on the Euro, a far cry from the 14 degree high of the GFS...
40s and rain on New Years Day on the Euro, a far cry from the 14 degree high of the GFS...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
South Texas Storms wrote:Brent wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:0z Euro is much closer to the Canadian than the GFS. Don't think the Euro will be showing record breaking cold this run.
The difference between the Euro and GFS is huge at 144 hours.
yup nothing extreme through NYE
around 40 for highs next weekend(doesn't warmup like the GFS before the front either)
Temps actually rising Sunday Night on the Euro
Yep GFS is all on it's own regarding the extreme cold temps next week. What a surprise.
At around 5-6 days out it’s crazy how big of a difference it is between the Euro and GFS. 10+ days out sure, but not at this range.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

Yep it happens though. Since the UKMET and Canadian are in better agreement with the Euro, I'm siding closer to those models.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
DFW barely even touches 32 on the Euro once

What cold?

What cold?
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