Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5027
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3421 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:52 am

Brent wrote:DFW barely even touches 32 on the Euro once

:roflmao:

What cold?


The 0z runs of the Euro have had a warm bias. 12z runs have been much colder.
0 likes   

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3422 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:54 am

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow:
Yep it happens though. Since the UKMET and Canadian are in better agreement with the Euro, I'm siding closer to those models.


West Coast Ridge is completing breaking down on tonight's Euro, subsequently weakening and forcing the Arctic HP toward the eastern US..looks very suspect considering the strength of the HP coming down out of Canada. GFS ENS Mean keeps ridge/strength of HP in place (not just the Operational) and is still adamant this could be a record breaking cold snap!!!

Looks like an outlier Euro run to me which can happen around this time frame

Image
Last edited by orangeblood on Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4235
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3423 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:54 am

:uarrow: Don't think so. Canadian and UKMET are in much closer agreement with the Euro. GFS and its ensembles are on its own. When that happens, I wouldn't bet a dime on the GFS panning out. I still think it will get cold, just not record breaking cold. Likely colder than the Euro is indicating, and probably closer to the Canadian.

Decent rain event on the Euro for January 3. Lots of Pacific energy crashing into the West Coast leading to warm temperatures on this run of the Euro.
1 likes   

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3424 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:03 am

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Don't think so. Canadian and UKMET are in much closer agreement with the Euro. GFS and its ensembles are on its own. When that happens, I wouldn't bet a dime on the GFS panning out. I still think it will get cold, just not record breaking cold. Likely colder than the Euro is indicating, and probably closer to the Canadian.

Decent rain event on the Euro for January 3. Lots of Pacific energy crashing into the West Coast leading to warm temperatures on this run of the Euro.


GFS and Canadian Ensembles looks fairly similar...it's just the operationals that aren't aligned. When you see 1054 plus HPs showing up on the NAM in that area of Western Canada, record cold could still be on the table!!

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5027
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3425 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:04 am

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Don't think so. Canadian and UKMET are in much closer agreement with the Euro. GFS and its ensembles are on its own. When that happens, I wouldn't bet a dime on the GFS panning out. I still think it will get cold, just not record breaking cold. Likely colder than the Euro is indicating, and probably closer to the Canadian.

Decent rain event on the Euro for January 3. Lots of Pacific energy crashing into the West Coast leading to warm temperatures on this run of the Euro.


Yeah, the CPC forecast today isn’t buying the GFS either. They expect the cold to head east.
0 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4235
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3426 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:19 am

Yeah you can't rule out the possibility of record cold here next week, just think the chances are still low. We could see temperatures reach the teens in north TX, but I'm not buying the single digits in DFW yet.

0z Euro Ensemble agrees with the Euro Op in keeping the coldest air north and east of TX.
1 likes   

Lagreeneyes03
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 558
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3427 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:33 am

Cpv17 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The GFS is showing very dry conditions over the next 2 weeks across TX. Much of the state gets less than 0.50 inch of precip.


Yep. Probably because it’s just way too cold for any precipitation. The strength of that high would push out all the moisture into the Gulf.


Why is it that around here, if it's that cold we can't get precipitation, but in other parts of the country they have snow and blizzards with those kind of extreme cold temps?
1 likes   
I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3270
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3428 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:08 am

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The GFS is showing very dry conditions over the next 2 weeks across TX. Much of the state gets less than 0.50 inch of precip.


Yep. Probably because it’s just way too cold for any precipitation. The strength of that high would push out all the moisture into the Gulf.


Why is it that around here, if it's that cold we can't get precipitation, but in other parts of the country they have snow and blizzards with those kind of extreme cold temps?

For the most part around here if we are very cold then that means we are under strong surface high pressure. Places further north can get extreme temps while not directly under the influence of a surface high. Even around here we do get some snow with temps in the teens or 20s, but it is pretty rare as we need a strong shortwave or upper low to pass by within am Arctic air mass.
1 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3429 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:33 am

6z stays consistent.... This is a classic battle setting up between Euro and GFS.
1 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3270
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3430 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:49 am

6Z GFS has me at 15 for a high on NY.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3431 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:54 am

I just can't put any faith in the GFS.
2 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3432 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:04 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:6z stays consistent.... This is a classic battle setting up between Euro and GFS.


Yep, classic battle - one of the key culprits seems to be the handling of the ULL Northeast of Hawaii - check out the differences between the GFS and Euro with their handling of that energy. Euro slams it into the West Coast while GFS keeps it NE of Hawaii. This has big implications downstream across our part of the world

GFSImage
Euro
Image


The Latest NAM is siding with the GFS, FWIW

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3433 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:05 am

bubba hotep wrote:I just can't put any faith in the GFS.



Me either, but this is about as clear a signal for a model duel as we have seen this Winter.

At least the Euro is still cool to cold, just not bone rattling cold.
0 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3434 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:08 am

I'd also say that the base ingredients are there this time for a major cold outbreak if the upper air allows. They were not there last week (source region, snow pack).
1 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1798
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3435 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:09 am

We’re in winter weather advisory up here until midnight. I didn’t even know we were expecting any frozen precip. I also noticed that they lowered the forecasted high today to 34.
1 likes   
#neversummer

Snowman67
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 633
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 12:44 pm
Location: Tomball, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3436 Postby Snowman67 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:20 am

Temps close to -30F near Chester, MT (near the Canadian border).
0 likes   
Any forecast I make is based on my opinion only. Please refer to the NWS or NHC for official forecasts.

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3270
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3437 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:26 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:We’re in winter weather advisory up here until midnight. I didn’t even know we were expecting any frozen precip. I also noticed that they lowered the forecasted high today to 34.

Today is one of tbose sneaky days where the cold air forecast keeps creeping down and there is a chance of showers. Most of N and NE TX could see very light rain, sleet and or freezing rain with temps in the 30 to 38 range.
1 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22796
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3438 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:35 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:We’re in winter weather advisory up here until midnight. I didn’t even know we were expecting any frozen precip. I also noticed that they lowered the forecasted high today to 34.


That's what happens when winter gets canceled prematurely before it even starts. Especially when it snowed near the coast just weeks prior :lol: EPO always wins
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

losf1981
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 109
Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:09 pm
Location: Wichita Falls, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3439 Postby losf1981 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:42 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:We’re in winter weather advisory up here until midnight. I didn’t even know we were expecting any frozen precip. I also noticed that they lowered the forecasted high today to 34.


just noticed this too.....I guess my dad was right.
1 likes   

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1798
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3440 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:43 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:We’re in winter weather advisory up here until midnight. I didn’t even know we were expecting any frozen precip. I also noticed that they lowered the forecasted high today to 34.


That's what happens when winter gets canceled prematurely before it even starts. Especially when it snowed near the coast just weeks prior :lol: EPO always wins

Drizzle just started a little while ago. It’s going to rough hunting in this, this afternoon but I’ll take any form of winter I can get.
1 likes   
#neversummer


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests