Texas Winter 2017-2018

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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3441 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:01 am

NWS FTW will remain on the fence about next week as for precipitation, as for the temps looks like a few days of highs in the 30s.


Weak upglide will continue Wednesday as the southwest shortwave approaches, but precip should be limited to the southern third of the region where the shallower portion of the airmass is located. All precipitation should come to an end from northwest to southeast on Thursday as the shortwave finally shifts east of the Plains. A slight warm-up is in store Friday into Saturday as the persistent longwave trough across the CONUS shifts slightly east and weak ridging develops overhead. In fact, Friday and Saturday may be the only days we potentially reach 50 degrees or warmer, because a strong arctic front is still progged to blast through the region this weekend. Model discrepancies in the timing of the front, available moisture and just how cold the airmass will be when it arrives are making the forecast for next weekend a challenging one. The EURO is the fastest with the front, pushing it through the area Friday night, while the GFS is 24 hours slower on Saturday night. The current forecast sides more with the neutral Canadian, indicating FROPA on Saturday and quickly falling temperatures Saturday afternoon and evening. With a deep cold airmass in place Sunday through Tuesday, the question will be how much moisture and lift will be around to produce precipitation. At this time, we have leaned towards the cooler side of guidance for late weekend/early next week, but are remaining conservative with moisture and showing only a few bouts with rain/sleet/snow. I am optimistic that as we get through the next couple of days, we will have a much better idea of which parameters will be present and which will not, and have the temperature and precipitation forecast more accurately nailed down. Ether way, after a cold week this week, the start of the New Year looks even colder
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3442 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:02 am

Through 102hrs GFS looks remarkably similar to the 0z run. Might be another really cold run
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3443 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:04 am

Ntxw wrote:Through 102hrs GFS looks remarkably similar to the 0z run. Might be another really cold run


Canadian trending towards the GFS as well...trough stays NE of Hawaii, actually further south allowing the S/W's to dig further South and west, might be more favorable for precip
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3444 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:06 am

Storm digging more in the NW that I see, might feature a winter storm. Big cold in Montana and ND
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3445 Postby utweather » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:08 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:We’re in winter weather advisory up here until midnight. I didn’t even know we were expecting any frozen precip. I also noticed that they lowered the forecasted high today to 34.


That's what happens when winter gets canceled prematurely before it even starts. Especially when it snowed near the coast just weeks prior :lol: EPO always wins


We should probably perhaps focus more attention on the 24hr models. It sounds like they aren't very accurate either though??
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3446 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:10 am

Below freezing on NYE with freezing rain and sleet at DFW Sun. Cold air still pushing
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3447 Postby utweather » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:11 am

Can anyone post those colorful models of whats going to happen in the next 24hrs in smaller increments? Would love to see those each day as much as the long term ones.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3448 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:15 am

Single digits at DFW Mon morning
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3449 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:18 am

Quick look of the 12zCanadian it looks like it went to the GFS side....Has a 1050mb high in Nebraska on New years
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3450 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:18 am

Single digits again tuesday morning, freeze to the coast and near 20 in Houston
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3451 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:19 am

Wowsers! That some serious tropical vegetation killing cold coming this way!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3452 Postby ronyan » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:21 am

29F in Brownsville on the 12z GFS. That would be a very cold night for the state, I'm curious to see if the Euro begins to swing in this direction.
Last edited by ronyan on Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3453 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:22 am

Let’s see what models show Friday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3454 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:22 am

As many said above, CMC caved to GFS. Comparable cold
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3455 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:25 am

stormlover2013 wrote:Let’s see what models show Friday.


By Friday the big cold front will probably already be entering the US. Tomorrow and Thurs is probably last chance for major shifts, but is unlikely given upstream the event will be unfolding
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3456 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:29 am

GFS may actually score a coup on this one. Lordy.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3457 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:32 am

Until euro Caves towards Cmc and gfs I don’t buy it, Gfs has been over doing the cold for the last 3 weeks
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3458 Postby Tammie » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:32 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3459 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:33 am

Right now I have light drizzle with a temp of 37 and a dew point of 34. What a waste of a few degrees.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3460 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:35 am

stormlover2013 wrote:Until euro Caves towards Cmc and gfs I don’t buy it, Gfs has been over doing the cold for the last 3 weeks


Euro had us balmy from last week today. Its also been the model flipping and flopping the past few days. Not exactly the staple child either
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