Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Until euro Caves towards Cmc and gfs I don’t buy it, Gfs has been over doing the cold for the last 3 weeks

Probably would be smart to blend as a forecaster, but the Euro has been piss poor lately too.

[gatorcane]

As many said above, CMC caved to GFS. Comparable cold

Yep and just posted in Florida thread with both models showing a freeze deep into the FL peninsula. Might have to go back to January 2010-11 to see temps this cold for Florida if it verifies. I am skeptical though just like you all as the Euro shows nothing like what the GFS and CMC are showing.

[stormlover2013]

They all have been horrible!!!

[Ntxw]

As many said above, CMC caved to GFS. Comparable cold

Yep and just posted in Florida thread with both models showing a freeze deep into the FL peninsula. Might have to go back to January 2010-11 to see temps this cold for Florida if it verifies.

There is a lot of cold sitting in Canada. Whether you believe the insane runs or not, to some degree at least it will overwhelm the pattern. Its coming from Siberia.

[losf1981]

so the source cold is looking better this time? as compared to last week leading up to Christmas weekend??

[orangeblood]

Last nights Euro looked like an outlier, completely mishandled the energy coming into the eastern Pacific...probably prudent to throw out. I'd suspect it will get a better grasp on Pacific energy during today's run

[Ntxw]

so the source cold is looking better this time? as compared to last week leading up to Christmas weekend??

Forget the source region, its -10s to -20s northern US right now! Even colder in Canada. Source is not an issue. Its trajectory

[Ralph's Weather]

so the source cold is looking better this time? as compared to last week leading up to Christmas weekend??

That would be a massive understatement. Source is 30 degrees colder this time.

[Rgv20]

Don't look now but the 12zUKMET looks way colder on the 500mb pattern by the 31st and New years day..

[stormlover2013]

Difference between GFS/CMC/NAM and the Euro is how our feature NE of Hawaii plays out. It affects the trajectory of the cold air.

From a guy that knows his stuff

[ThunderSleetDreams]

In the short term it looks like my Texas Bowl Tailgate looks damn chilly and a bit wet tomorrow. Sitka up!

[Yukon Cornelius]

In the short term it looks like my Texas Bowl Tailgate looks damn chilly and a bit wet tomorrow. Sitka up!

Sitka up! Also check out KUIU. Half the price of Sitka and just as warm.

[Ralph's Weather]

Difference between GFS/CMC/NAM and the Euro is how our feature NE of Hawaii plays out. It affects the trajectory of the cold air.

From a guy that knows his stuff

As we have discussed over the past couple pages, it seems unlikely that the Hawaiian low will eject towards the West coast. If it is goimg to eject we will see the signs very soon in real time. This is not a 7 to 10 forecast like we hav ebeen dealing with. At this range the features are on the table or will be very soon.

[vbhoutex]

IF the models are to be believed temperature wise SE TX is looking at sustained freezing temperatures we haven't seen in years with our area dipping into the teens to 20s and staying below freezing up to 4 days from Jan 1 on for the next week or so. Again the operative word here is IF!!! When the models show this in 3 days I will start to buy into it more. Basically it appears the North Pole has been transplanted to the Central Plains on the GFS!!

[Ntxw]

Lost in the cold is potential for maybe a bigger NYE System. A little more digging and with such a tight gradient, maybe end up a bigger event as we get closer?

[DonWrk]

As many said above, CMC caved to GFS. Comparable cold

Yep and just posted in Florida thread with both models showing a freeze deep into the FL peninsula. Might have to go back to January 2010-11 to see temps this cold for Florida if it verifies.

There is a lot of cold sitting in Canada. Whether you believe the insane runs or not, to some degree at least it will overwhelm the pattern. Its coming from Siberia.

The great talks of the Siberian Express of 2011 is what drew me to this forum!

[utweather]

Can anyone post those colorful models of whats going to happen in the next 24hrs in smaller increments? Would love to see those each day as much as the long term ones.

Actually reliable 48hr models would be perfect:-)
Whats the best at that?

[Ntxw]

Can anyone post those colorful models of whats going to happen in the next 24hrs in smaller increments? Would love to see those each day as much as the long term ones.

Actually reliable 48hr models would be perfect:-)
Whats the best at that?

NAM and Rgem would be go to models for that range. Posting loops of them would be too big for image hosts.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thats a cold run. Its been a while since we had a full day or multiple days below freezing here in SE Tx.

The trajectory of the trough has changed significantly over the last few GFS runs. Leaning towards 1989 esque, but the trough still dug deeper, all the way to the coast.

Maybe if it pans out like this, we could get the energy to hang further west, be a dream scenario but were all dreamers in here. That little guy near the baja would need to slow down.

[Ntxw]

Thats a cold run. Its been a while since we had a full day or multiple days below freezing here in SE Tx.

The trajectory of the trough has changed significantly over the last few GFS runs. Leaning towards 1989 esque, but the trough still dug deeper, all the way to the coast.

Maybe if it pans out like this, we could get the energy to hang further west, be a dream scenario but were all dreamers in here. That little guy near the baja would need to slow down.

I didn't even think of 1989 until you mentioned it. We don't have a big Alaskan ridge like 1983 here, but closer to 1989 as source region was bitter cold.

GFS run would likely be coldest NY blast on record, if that verified.