Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

Lost in the cold is potential for maybe a bigger NYE System. A little more digging and with such a tight gradient, maybe end up a bigger event as we get closer?

Yep, 12Z GFS ENS more aggressive on frozen precip chances for eastern half of Texas this weekend as well...typically with this type of siberian/arctic cold airmass, we get frozen precip with the frontal passage as it will squeeze/lift any moisture available - see Jan 2017 Arctic outbreak. The S/W's should trend west/dig with time as we get closer, particularly if the trough NE of Hawaii is further south

[bubba hotep]

6z stays consistent.... This is a classic battle setting up between Euro and GFS.

Yep, classic battle - one of the key culprits seems to be the handling of the ULL Northeast of Hawaii - check out the differences between the GFS and Euro with their handling of that energy. Euro slams it into the West Coast while GFS keeps it NE of Hawaii. This has big implications downstream across our part of the world

GFS
Euro



The Latest NAM is siding with the GFS, FWIW

The low is a key to watch but it is at the mercy of the larger Pacific pattern. Through 48 hrs the 00z GFS & Euro are pretty similar as both have an impressive Pacific jet streak with a big storm on top pushing 980. They both show wave breaking out in the jet exit. Then things diverge from 48 to 120 with the GFS developing consolidated 500mb feature (the low) while the Euro is more strung out with the main energy retrograding back south of Hawaii. This could be important in establishing the the ridge as the more consolidated feature on the GFS might generate convective outflow. Then the GFS has a more consolidated Bering Sea low allowing the ridge to build north allowing the cold to be dislodged south into Texas. The Euro doesn't build the ridge as quick (possibly due to lack of convection as the main energy retrogrades) and doesn't have as consolidated of a Bering Sea low with energy spilling into the Pacific NW.
A lot of moving parts but it appears the 1st benchmark will be in 24 to 36 hrs as the Pacific wave break determines the future of that Hawaii low.

[bubba hotep]

Euro appears to take a step towards the GFS across the Pacific through 72hrs but it still isn't as deep with that feature as the GFS.

[Brent]

Euro very similar so far on Saturday, fropa with some light rain early, nothing drastic, temps in the upper 30s/around 40 behind it

temps actually stay above freezing albeit barely Sunday morning at DFW

Highs in the 40s Sunday. Yep not cold again

cold rain Monday morning(New Years Day) with temps barely above freezing. Is colder than the 0z here

[Cpv17]

Euro vs GFS. Who’s going to win?

[Brent]

Euro is really close to a winter storm here Monday though. Probably icy. Like 33-34 and rain Monday

[Ntxw]

Euro vs GFS. Who’s going to win?

Euro has been dumping it to the northeast US. Its funny the progressive model is now amped while the amped model is progressive

[utweather]

Can anyone post those colorful models of whats going to happen in the next 24hrs in smaller increments? Would love to see those each day as much as the long term ones.

Actually reliable 48hr models would be perfect:-)
Whats the best at that?

NAM and Rgem would be go to models for that range. Posting loops of them would be too big for image hosts.

Cool thanks, I didn't know they were that big. I'll try to check them out. Sometimes I think we can visually see where patterns are going better than the computers. So visually/mentally extending them out from accurate 48hr models would be interesting, lol.

[Tireman4]

Euro vs GFS. Who’s going to win?

The NAVY!

[Brent]

Euro vs GFS. Who’s going to win?

Well we all know who usually does.

my guess is the truth will be in the middle, warmer than the GFS colder than the Euro

[bubba hotep]

This Euro run took some steps toward the GFS but not enough to get over the hump towards the extreme solution. However, it does show some winter wx for the northern portions of DFW on Monday.

[Brent]

Yeah the Euro keeps DFW above freezing

To me this is about as realistic as the high of 15 degrees.

[Cpv17]

Yeah the Euro keeps DFW above freezing

To me this is about as realistic as the high of 15 degrees.

The GFS would score a big coup if it ends up being right over the Euro, that’s for sure! I think we’ll know by tomorrow’s 12z runs.

[Ntxw]

Yeah the Euro keeps DFW above freezing

To me this is about as realistic as the high of 15 degrees.

The GFS would score a big coup if it ends up being right over the Euro, that’s for sure! I think we’ll know by tomorrow’s 12z runs.

Still bitter about the foot of snow Euro had for Christmas weekend, I say toss!

[stormlover2013]

Thursday or Friday we will know, 2 days before the event or day of with cold and etc

[Ntxw]

Went outside for lunch. 38F and drizzle. I think I've forgotten what warm days are like? crispy

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Thursday or Friday we will know, 2 days before the event or day of with cold and etc

Tomorrow will make things almost certain in regards to model trends. If the Euro is going to win we will see the leading edge tomorrow creeping south.

[losf1981]

it's cold in wichita falls and feels like it's getting colder.

[Brent]

If only it were a few degrees colder again

36 on my phone DFW was at 46 at midnight!!

[JayDT]

Ok so I was outside for the past 2 hours raking some leaves, and I just gotta say it is soooo cold! Lol. I think it’s colder now than when i first started for sure. & The drizzle is definitely getting heavier, I can pretty much see it clearly now.