Texas Winter 2017-2018

[JayDT]

So basically the GFS is sticking to its guns, and the Euro trended just a bit towards the GFS?? That’s what im kinda understanding

[stormlover2013]

Snow storm in Texas 3 weeks ago we didn’t know the day before, cold wise we didn’t know till 2 days before models do bad with this cold air.

[Cpv17]

The CPC still isn’t really buying the cold solution.

[stormlover2013]

I wouldn’t be buying it either, models have been so inconsistent

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The CPC had much of Texas in deepest of a the dark blue for this week about 2 weeks ago. They kind throw darts at a dartboard in a dark room at times and if it sticks, they can write it up as a score. If it doesn't, they can just blame the models and move on.

[Cpv17]

It kinda looks like they just go by what the Euro shows and don’t even pay any attention to other models.

[Ntxw]

The CPC still isn’t really buying the cold solution.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

The CPC had much of Texas in deepest of a the dark blue for this week about 2 weeks ago. They kind throw darts at a dartboard in a dark room at times and if it sticks, they can write it up as a score. If it doesn't, they can just blame the models and move on.

It kinda looks like they just go by what the Euro shows and don’t even pay any attention to other models.

I think they weight the Euro Ensembles the most. It often correlates

[Brent]

The EPS is pretty close to the op Euro... coldest at DFW Is 38/31 Monday and 30 Tuesday morning. Nothing we havent seen already. If I'm reading the chart on wx.graphics right not a single ensemble even supports close to the extreme GFS temps

oh and a pretty significant warmup by the end of the run

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Went outside for lunch. 38F and drizzle. I think I've forgotten what warm days are like? crispy

Yeah, just a dreadful day in NoTex today.

[orangeblood]

The EPS is pretty close to the op Euro... coldest at DFW Is 38/31 Monday and 30 Tuesday morning. Nothing we havent seen already. If I'm reading the chart on wx.graphics right not a single ensemble even supports close to the extreme GFS temps

oh and a pretty significant warmup by the end of the run

Not surprising in the differences between Euro and GFS at this point...4-5 day range is reasonable for consistency to show up which is tomorrow. As It currently stands, Euro is beginning to become the outlier

Actually 12Z EPS with quite a few members with sub 30 highs and a few with sub 15 lows, EPS is trending colder...as far as precip, ice storm potential is increasing as well

[Yukon Cornelius]

Still receiving freezing drizzle here. Little icicles everywhere and most things are coated in a film of ice.

[Brent]

The EPS is pretty close to the op Euro... coldest at DFW Is 38/31 Monday and 30 Tuesday morning. Nothing we havent seen already. If I'm reading the chart on wx.graphics right not a single ensemble even supports close to the extreme GFS temps

oh and a pretty significant warmup by the end of the run

Not surprising in the differences between Euro and GFS at this point...4-5 day range is reasonable for consistency to show up which is tomorrow. As It currently stands, Euro is beginning to become the outlier

Actually 12Z EPS with quite a few members with sub 30 highs and a few with sub 15 lows, EPS is trending colder...as far as precip, ice storm potential is increasing as well

oh I definitely can buy a winter storm even with the warmer Euro(we saw it on the op run), I just don't see a lot of support for single digits in Dallas like the GFS

its gonna be cold I'm just not convinced on the extreme cold

[Texas Snow]

Went outside for lunch. 38F and drizzle. I think I've forgotten what warm days are like? crispy

Yeah, just a dreadful day in NoTex today.

And I love it

[Brent]

FWD AFD calling the GFS an outlier

The long term portion of the forecast becomes increasingly
challenging on Saturday as deterministic global guidance diverges
significantly. Given the high probability that the initial cold
surge will be shallow, I will favor guidance that advertises a
faster FROPA on Saturday (the ECMWF/Canadian) as opposed to the
slower models (GFS). With the faster guidance, it appears that
much of the precipitation occurs in the warm sector with a very
abrupt end to rain as colder and dry air plow southward. This will
need to be monitored as any changes in the timing of the front
may result in changes in precipitation type.

Beyond Sunday, guidance continues to diverge as we start the year
2018. Just for informational purposes, the GFS model advertises
high temperatures across North and Central TX in the teens and
twenties. This WOULD certainly be an impressive cold outbreak,
but at this time, there isn't much support for this solution. I'll
lean towards a warmer solution given that the operational GFS
appears to be an outlier amongst the guidance. That in mind,
it'll still be cold as Saturday's Arctic front will usher in much
colder conditions. For now, I'll advertise high temperatures in
the 30s and 40s areawide with overnight lows in the teens and
twenties.

[wxman57]

12z GFS and Euro are worlds apart for next week. Euro has the coldest temperature in Houston around 35-36f. GFS has 14-15F. Euro has a couple light freezes for the DFW area next week but none across SE TX. GFS has been absolutely terrible with its temperature forecasts over the past few weeks. Last week, it had lows in the single digits for my trip to Baton Rouge this week. Nope. More like low 40s. I'd tend not to believe it.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS and Euro are worlds apart for next week. Euro has the coldest temperature in Houston around 35-36f. GFS has 14-15F. Euro has a couple light freezes for the DFW area next week but none across SE TX. GFS has been absolutely terrible with its temperature forecasts over the past few weeks. Last week, it had lows in the single digits for my trip to Baton Rouge this week. Nope. More like low 40s. I'd tend not to believe it.

Euro hasn’t been any better, really.

[JayDT]

In my opinion none of the models have been all that great.. & I defintely wouldnt say one has performed better than the other.. They both have been horrible... Like i said, in my opinion lol

[Brent]

12z GFS and Euro are worlds apart for next week. Euro has the coldest temperature in Houston around 35-36f. GFS has 14-15F. Euro has a couple light freezes for the DFW area next week but none across SE TX. GFS has been absolutely terrible with its temperature forecasts over the past few weeks. Last week, it had lows in the single digits for my trip to Baton Rouge this week. Nope. More like low 40s. I'd tend not to believe it.

Euro hasn’t been any better, really.

it seems most mets here are taking a blend of the GFS/Euro which I would agree with

[Portastorm]

So it seems us amateurs aren't the only ones weighing out the differences between the GFS vs. Euro/Canadian for next weekend's cold front. So are our National Weather Service professionals as evidenced from this afternoon's forecast discussion out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The biggest forecast quandary for the long term period is the
prospect for a cold front Sunday. The GFS is the far and away coldest
and most bullish solution at this time. 850 mb temps below -5C with
near 30kt winds would prove to be a VERY cold beginning to the new
year should that solution come to fruition. MAV guidance is even
advertising single digit lows for Austin Tuesday morning. However,
while the deterministic solution is what it is, interrogation of
ensemble values shows the magnitude of the cold air, even in the
bullish GFS, is not well agreed upon within the individual members,
with a 7 std spread for Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Things aren`t much more clear in the ECMWF or Canadian, other than
they are not as gung ho about how cold it will get. While cold air is
still advertised in both solutions, ensemble members differ quite a
bit as well, about 30-40 degree spread in the ensemble members for
temperatures. As a result, definitely trended more towards the
ECMWF/Canadian for temps, in collaboration with surrounding offices.
However, if things trend towards the GFS, these will need to be
significantly reduced in later forecasts.

Beyond Sunday, confidence is about as low as possible, on just about
everything. GFS`s big cold front dries everything out and brings in a
very strong surface high whereas the ECMWF H5 pattern shows a weak
shortwave moving over the area early next week and brings precip to
the area. Since everything hinges on Sunday, consensus solutions
favoring everything that isn`t the GFS, was the decision made this
forecast package for Monday on.

[Cpv17]

In my opinion none of the models have been all that great.. & I defintely wouldnt say one has performed better than the other.. They both have been horrible... Like i said, in my opinion lol

I completely agree lol