Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

The 0z Euro is up and running guys!

[Brent]

The 0z Euro is up and running guys!

its a late Christmas miracle!

[South Texas Storms]

The 0z Euro is up and running guys!

It's stuck at hour 0...

[Brent]

well I have pieces of the meteogram for today...

come on already... what is wrong with the models nowadays?

ooh now its out through 12z Thursday...

into Friday now, not sure why the maps aren't loading

[South Texas Storms]

well I have pieces of the meteogram for today...

come on already... what is wrong with the models nowadays?

ooh now its out through 12z Thursday...

into Friday now, not sure why the maps aren't loading

Where are you getting the data from? WxBell and Tropical Tidbits aren't updating for me.

[Brent]

well I have pieces of the meteogram for today...

come on already... what is wrong with the models nowadays?

ooh now its out through 12z Thursday...

into Friday now, not sure why the maps aren't loading

Where are you getting the data from? WxBell and Tropical Tidbits aren't updating for me.

Accuwxpro, its coming from somewhere

[South Texas Storms]

well I have pieces of the meteogram for today...

come on already... what is wrong with the models nowadays?

ooh now its out through 12z Thursday...

into Friday now, not sure why the maps aren't loading

Where are you getting the data from? WxBell and Tropical Tidbits aren't updating for me.

Accuwxpro

Gotcha. Well keep us night owls updated on how it looks

[Brent]

Where are you getting the data from? WxBell and Tropical Tidbits aren't updating for me.

Accuwxpro

Gotcha. Well keep us night owls updated on how it looks

okay the suspense is killing me and it doesnt help it loads in bits and pieces(skipping some hours at first)

[South Texas Storms]

It sure would be nice if the 500mb maps loaded.

[Brent]

and now the meteogram is stuck on Friday Night, just when the interesting starts...

Make the Euro great again

The free maps on weather.us are out to Friday Night also it appears

1048 mb high over NE MT there, same as last run

[South Texas Storms]

This delay has lasted over 2 hours now. So frustrating and just horrible timing.

[Brent]

This delay has lasted over 2 hours now. So frustrating and just horrible timing.

I got nothing. Still stuck and some of the frames from Friday are still missing. The same times are also missing on the weather.us maps

I'm giving it a half hour to get in shape or I'm going to bed.

[South Texas Storms]

Out to 24 hours on Tropical Tidbits now. I'm not convinced we'll get past Friday for a while though.

[Brent]

Out to 24 hours on Tropical Tidbits now. I'm not convinced we'll get past Friday for a while though.

yeah its like they stopped it on Friday

Gotta figure out if its gonna cave to the GFS or not...

[Ralph's Weather]

Was hoping to see this run before crashing but guess that's not happening

[South Texas Storms]

I'm beginning to wonder if we will ever get the full 10 day 0z Euro data this morning...

I think they are still having power issues.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro is out to 192 hours on Tropical Tidbits now. Looks like it caved closer to the GFS.

[Tammie]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
349 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017

LONG TERM...
/Thursday through Tuesday/

While the surface high will begin to erode over the region on
Thursday, the low clouds will be slow to clear as the frontal
inversion remains in tact. Prefer the NAM forecasts which keep a
bank of low clouds in across most of the central and eastern zones
Thursday. These clouds may undergo some slow clearing Thursday
night and Friday, before expanding areawide again Friday night as
low level isentropic lift sets up again. The clouds will be
critical to temperature forecasts, and in general have sided with
the cooler NAM for highs and the warmer SREF mean for overnight
lows. This means temperatures will likely only be in the 40s for
highs Thursday, 30s for lows Thursday night, and on Friday highs
range from the mid 40s east to the upper 50s in the sunnier
western zones. Winds will be light and variable, while moisture
depth will be shallow - so no rain or drizzle is expected.

Isentropic lift Friday night gets strong enough to include a
mention of drizzle and by Saturday morning there will be a low
chance of measurable rainfall with some light rain showers.
Temperatures will be safely above freezing during this time
period. Despite southerly winds, the clouds and moisture will
keep highs in the low 40s north to the mid 50s south on Saturday.

The main weather story is the arctic cold front that is forecast
to move through the region Saturday night or early Sunday. An
arctic surface high currently located over the Beaufort Sea will
drop southward and through western Canada Thursday and Friday. The
high is forecast to enter the Plains over the weekend. The 500mb
pattern is actually not one that`s terribly favorable for driving
an arctic airmass into Texas, as the main upper trough stays on a
progressive track across the northern and northeastern US.
However, the sprawling surface high will intensify across the
Northern Plains Sunday. This means the front won`t blast through
with a marked change from hour to hour, but rather easterly winds
will become northeasterly and then northerly with a gradual
increase in speed. This process will result in prolonged cold
advection of the lower atmosphere with temperatures gradually
falling Sunday and Sunday night. Since the upper trough isn`t in a
favorable configuration, the cold airmass will be very
shallow...only a few thousand feet deep through early Monday. So
while surface temperatures fall into the 20s Sunday afternoon and
evening, temperatures will still be above freezing above 850mb as
the airmass aloft remains unaffected by the front.

The shallow temperature profile will play an important role in
precipitation type and chances. For one, all models forecast a
potent cap aloft around 700 mb with a very dry airmass above it.
That means the potential for significant water-equivalent QPF is
very low Sunday and Monday. Within the frontal inversion
temperatures will cool rapidly which could squeeze out some
drizzle. Above the frontal inversion, in a layer near 900 mb to
the cap near 700mb, several models indicate a region of
saturation, weak instability, and isentropic ascent. Should this
forecast verify, it would likely result in low topped weak
showers. As surface temperatures fall below freezing and into the
20s, obviously the concern is that freezing rain or freezing
drizzle would materialize. This freezing precipitation could
stick to all surfaces and result in some very poor driving
conditions New Years Eve night. Eventually the top of the frontal
inversion cools to -10C which would be cold enough for the liquid
precipitation to spontaneously freeze. Thus some snow grains or
flurries would be possible as we head into early Monday morning.
All precipitation is likely to end from NW to SE during the day
Monday as drier air moves in. For the worded forecast, the PoPs
will remain low as the chance for measurable precipitation looks
limited. However even trace amounts of freezing precipitation
could cause travel impacts and therefore this system will require
close monitoring. It goes without saying that confidence in
forecasting light freezing precipitation is not high this far out,
so now is not the time to change plans, but just to make a mental
note to keep checking updated forecasts over the next few days
for any changes.

Temperatures will be cold into early next week with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens and 20s. While the chance for
additional moisture/lift for wintry precipitation Tuesday and
beyond is non- zero, it is too small to demand our attention at
this time.

TR.92

[Ntxw]

0z Euro is out to 192 hours on Tropical Tidbits now. Looks like it caved closer to the GFS.

Yes! Its breaking down the Euro. Meanwhile 06z gfs holds serve

[northjaxpro]

6Z GFS running now. GFS still holding firm with the arctic blast. 1055mb Arctic High being shown centered right over Nebraska New Year's Day at 18Z