Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Latest CPC 6-10 day Temperature Outlook no longer has South Florida in the blue. In fact the 8-14 day Outlook has all of Florida left out of the blue likely meaning the GFS is totally wrong with its idea.

It indeed did. My inclination all along has been to believe we are destined to have several days on the cool side of normal (5-10 degrees below) rather than a sharp blast of cold. the overlap of normal to above normal precip hints that clouds and rain may help yield those below normal maxes. For central florida this would likely mean several days with maxes in the 60's and lows in the 40's with perhaps a day or 2 a tad under that... not unlike (temp wise) that which happened in mid December.

[NDG]

Tonight's GFS is warmer than previous runs for FL for Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, doesn't even bring freezing temps for central FL. It keeps trending towards the Euro which I wouldn't doubt if on tonight's run it trends a little colder towards the GFS.

[AdamFirst]

CMC has also backed off the deep freeze solution from previous runs.

[boca]

I'm willing to bet South Florida stays warm next week.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z Euro and 06Z GFS are very cold for Florida. Looks like the Euro is caving though the Euro is showing the most amplified trough at 216 hours. The 06Z GFS has gone colder.

[northjaxpro]

Well, GFS is looking real good folks!!! MEGA KUDOS to the GFS on its persistence in showing this particular arctic outbreak well before Christmas.

I will get into this later and how even in situations like this when you don't have a classic -NAO, the -AO +PNA teleconnection can still bring significant cold IF we have cold arctic air already in place, which is the case now across the Northern Tier of the CONUS. That cold air will flood southward the next 7-10 days.

6Z GFS showing a prolonged period of arctic cold all the way into next weekend (1-5 -1/7). We will get another re inforcement by Thursday of next week.

Also, I touched on this in the Deep South Thread, but 6Z GFS is showing a chance of wintry mix of precip in the Jax area late on New Year's Day into Sunday night as the arctic or filters into the area as a Low Pressure system moves off the SE US coast by early Tuesday (1/2)

We have been so extremely lucky escaping these arctic outbreaks going back to 2010. However, it is looking now that our number is finally being called out big time by Mother Nature and Old Man Winter is coming!!!

More later...

[TheStormExpert]

Still not buying the cold solution the 00z Euro shows in its 8-10 day range, it’s been very known to have errors in that range this year.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The euro will win. Always does:
Saturday night through tuesday: it is important to mention that
there are large differences in the pattern and the forecast
between the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) for late in the weekend into early
next week. The GFS has a strong mid-upper level trough digging
down from the Great Lakes to the south-central U.S., And the
trough moves eastward with time. The trough in the GFS supports a
strong cold front. The European model (ecmwf) has a much weaker trough that doesn't
dig nearly as far south. As a result, the European model (ecmwf) develops a much
weaker surface cold front. The National Weather Service forecast is more conservative
than the GFS at long ranges, and is a blend of the models. In
other words, at this time, we are forecasting an increase in rain
chances for Monday, followed by cooler temperatures on Tuesday,
under the Assumption that a cold front will occur, but not
necessarily as strong as what the GFS is showing.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm willing to bet South Florida stays warm next week.

Would be surprised if we didn’t see some cooler weather just not seeing the temperatures the GFS and long-range Euro are showing. Hopefully the GFS keeps pushing it back little by little for some time and it holds off until January 4th or beyond as I am going to be in the Bahamas this next week and don’t want to see any iffy weather.

[boca]

I would say 75 for a high and 55 for a low if we get the cold front which isn't that cold. I think you'll be ok in the Bahamas because the water temps are still warm which should modify the temperatures over in the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

Just one week from now, the GFS has upper 20s for Orlando an I-4 corridor with a freeze for Tampa. Looks like lower 40s for metro SE Florida. If this front is for real the Bahamas will be rather cold also and I would expect a stratocumulus deck blanketing the Bahamas as well which would limit sunshine.

[NDG]

The big question is if the PNA do indeed goes positive as ensembles have been forecasting it to do, which is why last night's Euro went colder for FL on last night's run when on previous runs it was showing a more flat trough across the eastern US. The NAO is still been forecasted not to go negative but with such a cold airmass across the norther US & Canada I am not sure if the +NAO will help us out much with the forecasted PNA to go positive.

[northjaxpro]

The big question is if the PNA do indeed goes positive as ensembles have been forecasting it to do, which is why last night's Euro went colder for FL on last night's run when on previous runs it was showing a more flat trough across the eastern US. The NAO is still been forecasted not to go negative but with such a cold airmass across the norther US & Canada I am not sure if the +NAO will help us out much with the forecasted PNA to go positive.

My reasoning for going with the GFS for this arctic outbreak. PNA indeed is in process of going positive. As I mentioned in my post above, a good positive PNA, -AO is. sufficient in bringing a very significant cold spell to the Deep South and Florida. Yes, having an -NAO is the ideal setup for bringing very cold air to Florida, but is not necessarily needed all the time.

This is one good example in this instance in which cold arctic air is already locked into place and readyto dive south in the coming days!!

[boca]

Delete

[StormingB81]

Wintery precipitation or bust. Lol I kid because being near cape Canaveral I doubt it would come this south....but I could still hope lol one day again...It's time for the once a decade event to happen

[boca]

The colder temps are not yet being reflected in the extended forecasts for South Florida,any idea what the temps at night and during the day might be?

[NDG]

The colder temps are not yet being reflected in the extended forecasts for South Florida,any idea what the temps at night and during the day might be?

If the latest GFS was to be correct lows for S FL will be in the 40s & 50s with highs only in the 60s, Tuesday night through Friday.
The +NAO is the big saver for SE FL.

[psyclone]

As is always the case in weather the answer is hurry up and wait. All of the models have left a lot to be desired in their long term outlooks so I wouldn't trust any specific output at this point. I am confident in a stretch of below normal temps...that's about all that's bankable at this point. We should respect climo, the calendar, the preexisting arctic air across the northland for sure...but these longer range model predictions? I just can't because they haven't earned it. Naturally I'm watching with intense interest as the time frame reels in. And i'll probably be loading up on some more Irma firewood in the coming days.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 12Z GFS is coming in a little warmer but wow check out the Canadian. You would think they would fix the model one of these days. That has like no chance of happening.

[StormingB81]

It was right a couple weeks ago with all the snow in the southeast