Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

GFS and Euro are in much better agreement for the temps across TX early next week. This is not looking like a snow event, but there could be some sleet mixed in with the rain as precip ends up in the DFW area. I wouldn't absolutely rule out any sleet pellets here in Houston, but I wouldn't forecast it based on overnight model runs. There may be a considerable warm layer aloft here on New Year's.

As for temps, Euro is now saying around 24F, with the GFS around 26F for Houston. Cold, but nothing really out of the ordinary and certainly not historic or anywhere close to record-breaking. Remember, there is very little of a snow pack to our north, so any Arctic air coming south will modify more than normal for this time of year.

Bottom line for me is that I won't be participating in the Houston Bike Club's New Year's Day bike ride this year. Even though I love cold weather this winter, my bike says it doesn't like to be ridden in sub-freezing temps with a strong north wind.

Oh, and as for that winter storm across Texas that the GFS is predicting for the 8th, well, let's wait until that event is 3-4 days away and see if the forecast doesn't change.

[Cpv17]

GFS and Euro are in much better agreement for the temps across TX early next week. This is not looking like a snow event, but there could be some sleet mixed in with the rain as precip ends up in the DFW area. I wouldn't absolutely rule out any sleet pellets here in Houston, but I wouldn't forecast it based on overnight model runs. There may be a considerable warm layer aloft here on New Year's.

As for temps, Euro is now saying around 24F, with the GFS around 26F for Houston. Cold, but nothing really out of the ordinary and certainly not historic or anywhere close to record-breaking. Remember, there is very little of a snow pack to our north, so any Arctic air coming south will modify more than normal for this time of year.

Bottom line for me is that I won't be participating in the Houston Bike Club's New Year's Day bike ride this year. Even though I love cold weather this winter, my bike says it doesn't like to be ridden in sub-freezing temps with a strong north wind.

Oh, and as for that winter storm across Texas that the GFS is predicting for the 8th, well, let's wait until that event is 3-4 days away and see if the forecast doesn't change.

The STJ has been active right over us the past few weeks. Way too early to rule out a good chance of precipitation across TX imo. Remember the Euro and GFS couldn’t even sniff it out 1 day ahead of time back in early December and as far as temps go the models never forecasted it to be in the low 40’s across SETX today till yesterday afternoon. Just 2-3 days ago they were forecasting today to be around 50 degrees so many things can and will probably change over the next few days. To me you can’t rule out it being warmer or colder yet or more wet vs dry. And we all know that the models usually always underestimate the cold. With a 1055mb high sitting over Kansas, I find it hard to believe that the GFS is only forecasting mid 20’s for the Houston area.

[Portastorm]

Well well....EWX and HGX have introduced a chance of wintry precipitation New Years Eve night and New Year's Day into the early morning hours of January 2nd.

Of course I noticed that as well.

Interesting times ahead for us Texas winter weather fans.

[bubba hotep]

Really starting to diverge again at 96h.

Yeah but the GFS did trend closer to the Euro tonight regarding that energy currently near Hawaii. Is it the start of a cave towards the Euro?

Complex setup to get to this point, but here moving forward - GFS is faster with the northern wave and slower with the southern wave. This creates an opening, that is still present on the 00z GFS, that allows ridging to surge north towards Alaska. At this point, 12z Friday, 27 00z GFS and 26 12z Euro aren't that far off. It is everything that happens after this point that causes the drastic change. So, we close to a split hair type setup with possible small changes having pretty big impacts on the sensible weather across TX next week.

Huge 24 hour change on the Euro across the Pacific as it has trended hard towards the GFS thinking of more consolidated energy with faster northern and slower southern. It has totally given up on trying to retrograde the main piece of energy.

00z Tuesday



00z Wednesday

[Ralph's Weather]

What are our chances of seeing precip within all of this cold?

I would say likely, though likely light and very hard to predict. I do not see us getting a big storm though if one does emerge it would likely be either this weekend or one to kick this outbreak out in a couple weeks. Otherwise precip will come from shortwaves which we will only see from 24 to 48 hours out. The STJ has been active and this outbreak is very shallow so the STJ should stay over top of us with frigid surface temps.

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF came in significantly colder for New Years Eve for my area vs the 12z run.....65 vs 39! Even has some wintry mix in South Texas

[Yukon Cornelius]

What a nice cold last couple of days. Yesterday the forecasted high was 35, it got to 33 for about an hour. Today, currently it’s 26 with a forecasted high of 30-32 depending on source. Looks like a small warmup for the next couple of days after today and then this weekend, forecasted highs in the upper 20s and lows in the lower teens.

[ronyan]

I looked at the snow pack maps and it looks pretty decent down the lee of the Rockies. Anyone have maps comparing to average snow pack for the end of December?

[weatherdude1108]

Well well....EWX and HGX have introduced a chance of wintry precipitation New Years Eve night and New Year's Day into the early morning hours of January 2nd.

Of course I noticed that as well.

Interesting times ahead for us Texas winter weather fans.

I saw that too. Meant to post earlier. Probably old news now. Will be interesting New Years Eve!


000
FXUS64 KEWX 270945
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
345 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad trough across the
country with westerly flow over Texas. At the surface, a stationary
front was stretched from Deep South Texas along the Rio Grande to a
low near Del Rio and then a cold front extended into Mexico. Winds
were generally from the northeast across our CWA. The upper pattern
will change very little during this period with the flow remaining
mainly westerly. The surface front will drift away to the south. The
low level flow will continue northeasterly today and then turn to the
east tonight and Thursday. At the top of the boundary layer winds
will be from the south to southwest producing isentropic upglide
across the eastern part of our area and there will be a chance for
light rain today. Rain chances should come to an end tonight as the
isentropic flow will become less favorable for precipitation.
Thursday is looking dry with high pressure moving across north Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The upper level pattern will remain fairly zonal into Saturday.
Another cold front will move through central Texas Friday night and
through our CWA Saturday. The deepest moisture will be across our
eastern counties and this will be where the best chances for rain
will be. Sunday night the a low will develop along the frontal
boundary and bring it back northward over the Gulf. Isentropic lift
north of the boundary will keep the chance for precipitation across
our CWA Sunday night and Monday. Colder air will move in as this
precipitation chance sets up with temperatures dropping below
freezing Sunday night. This will mean the likelihood of winter
precipitation. Forecast soundings show a mix of rain and freezing
rain as the most likely precipitation type. Mixed precipitation will
begin Sunday evening over the northeast and spread south and
westward overnight eventually reaching along and north of a line from
Langtry to San Antonio to Giddings. At this point it`s too early to
get a good handle on any impacts, but it is New Year`s Eve. Drier air
will move in for the end of the forecast period.

[Rgv20]

12zCMC has a 1056mb high entering Montana by Sunday Evening...Stronger than last nights 0z run

[dhweather]

GFS and Euro are in much better agreement for the temps across TX early next week. This is not looking like a snow event, but there could be some sleet mixed in with the rain as precip ends up in the DFW area. I wouldn't absolutely rule out any sleet pellets here in Houston, but I wouldn't forecast it based on overnight model runs. There may be a considerable warm layer aloft here on New Year's.

As for temps, Euro is now saying around 24F, with the GFS around 26F for Houston. Cold, but nothing really out of the ordinary and certainly not historic or anywhere close to record-breaking. Remember, there is very little of a snow pack to our north, so any Arctic air coming south will modify more than normal for this time of year.

Bottom line for me is that I won't be participating in the Houston Bike Club's New Year's Day bike ride this year. Even though I love cold weather this winter, my bike says it doesn't like to be ridden in sub-freezing temps with a strong north wind.

Oh, and as for that winter storm across Texas that the GFS is predicting for the 8th, well, let's wait until that event is 3-4 days away and see if the forecast doesn't change.

Has anyone checked to see if his account has been hacked ??

[ronyan]

12zCMC has a 1056mb high entering Montana by Sunday Evening...Stronger than last nights 0z run

Will it show sub-zero at Austin this time? It shows a high of 25F at my location near the coast on the 2nd which would be incredibly rare. It also shows near -30F in Chicago.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS looks to hold its ground. 1053 HP descending from Montana. -20s up there. The consistency of the GFS with this is mind blowing

[Cpv17]

12z GFS looks to hold its ground. 1053 HP descending from Montana. -20s up there. The consistency of the GFS with this is mind blowing

High pressure doesn’t get as strong this run compared to previous runs, but still plenty strong enough.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

12z GFS looks to hold its ground. 1053 HP descending from Montana. -20s up there. The consistency of the GFS with this is mind blowing

Maybe if got tired of being made fun of..........

[Rgv20]

12zCMC a very cold run again! IF it were to verify it would be a damaging freeze for all the RGV.

[Cpv17]

12zCMC has a 1056mb high entering Montana by Sunday Evening...Stronger than last nights 0z run

Will it show sub-zero at Austin this time? It shows a high of 25F at my location near the coast on the 2nd which would be incredibly rare. It also shows near -30F in Chicago.

Not quite in Austin, but has sub zero temps just north and west of there.

[ronyan]

CMC has 10F near here. Don't think so, that was about the minimum of 1989.

[wxman22]

The CMC still shows 2 winter storms next week its been pretty consistent the last couple of days.The Canadian did latch on to the gulf coast snow we had earlier in the month before the GFS or Euro did FWIW.

[Cpv17]

This run of the CMC is nuts. Coldest run of any model I’ve ever seen in my life for TX. Has me at 2 below zero all the way down here in Wharton County just one hour from the coast.