Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ralph's Weather]

The Canadian seems to have been preforming well lately. The GFS has been hit or miss but at least it hasn't been flip flopping every run. The Euro has been very inconsistent lately.

[Ntxw]

This run of the CMC is nuts. Coldest run of any model I’ve ever seen in my life for TX. Has me at 2 below zero all the way down here in Wharton County just one hour from the coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_40.png

Models will sometimes do that when they dump snow and sleet on an area

[Ntxw]

The Canadian is the most extreme because it digs the trough more into the west and consolidates the energy at 500mb. That would be the most ideal for cold and snow, while the GFS and Euro is a more progressive sheared trough. The system in question enters the US Friday or so

[Cpv17]

The Canadian seems to have been preforming well lately. The GFS has been hit or miss but at least it hasn't been flip flopping every run. The Euro has been very inconsistent lately.

Well hopefully it’s right on precipitation. I’m gonna have to pass on those temperatures though. That’s just too cold even for a weather enthusiast like myself.

[Snowman67]

This run of the CMC is nuts. Coldest run of any model I’ve ever seen in my life for TX. Has me at 2 below zero all the way down here in Wharton County just one hour from the coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_40.png

That may be the strangest temperature map I've ever seen, Teens and twenties well to the north, while a pocket of single digits to below zero is in SE Texas.

[Portastorm]

The Canadian seems to have been preforming well lately. The GFS has been hit or miss but at least it hasn't been flip flopping every run. The Euro has been very inconsistent lately.

Performing well in what regard? It is consistently too cold with 2m temperatures in winter and has been for Texas per my observations. Do you mean in terms of the upper air pattern?

[Cpv17]

This run of the CMC is nuts. Coldest run of any model I’ve ever seen in my life for TX. Has me at 2 below zero all the way down here in Wharton County just one hour from the coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_40.png

That may be the strangest temperature map I've ever seen, Teens and twenties well to the north, while a pocket of single digits to below zero is in SE Texas.

Completely agree, but as Ntxw alluded to earlier, models do tend to do that when they dump snow and sleet on an area.

[Brent]

The Canadian seems to have been preforming well lately. The GFS has been hit or miss but at least it hasn't been flip flopping every run. The Euro has been very inconsistent lately.

Performing well in what regard? It is consistently too cold with 2m temperatures in winter and has been for Texas per my observations. Do you mean in terms of the upper air pattern?

also did poorly last week when we thought Dallas had a chance of snow Friday Night

The CMC isnt known as crazy for nothing.

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET looks cold going by the 500mb pattern....has a 1045mb high on New Years Day in the Dakotas and by Tuesday morning has a 1043mb high in Kansas.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS looks to hold its ground. 1053 HP descending from Montana. -20s up there. The consistency of the GFS with this is mind blowing

Don't do it ... don't try to kick that football, Ntxw! That's just want the GFS wants you to do. Remember the remarkable consistency re: the phantom Christmas storm for Texas? Sure, we're much closer to the event now with the GFS still consistently showing it ... but I will not be suckered in this time. Be cautious!

[TexasSam]

If I remember right Houston's all time low temp. is 5 above zero. I seem to remember the 1989 storm we got down to like 8 above zero. It was fun at first, then came the rolling blackouts, and no water for a week. I did get smart the night before and fill the bathtub with water to flush the toilet. My neighbors were coming over to poop. I had a 5 gallon bucket and lived close to the pool, and had them go to the pool and get a bucket of water, and put it back in the tub. Lol

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Crazy numbers from the crazy uncle from America's hat. It would rival the infamous freeze of 1899 in some areas of the state.

https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxeve ... 992000.pdf

[Rgv20]

The Canadian seems to have been preforming well lately. The GFS has been hit or miss but at least it hasn't been flip flopping every run. The Euro has been very inconsistent lately.

Performing well in what regard? It is consistently too cold with 2m temperatures in winter and has been for Texas per my observations. Do you mean in terms of the upper air pattern?

In my years of following the CMC it defiantly has a cold bias for Texas and especially for my area. Every once in a while it nails temperature like the Snow event for my area a couple of week ago and the Freezing Drizzle we had in Feb 2011. Those are the ones that I remember

[Cpv17]

The Canadian seems to have been preforming well lately. The GFS has been hit or miss but at least it hasn't been flip flopping every run. The Euro has been very inconsistent lately.

Performing well in what regard? It is consistently too cold with 2m temperatures in winter and has been for Texas per my observations. Do you mean in terms of the upper air pattern?

also did poorly last week when we thought Dallas had a chance of snow Friday Night

The CMC isnt known as crazy for nothing.

Yeah, you got that right lol I think a blend of the Euro and GFS will be what I go with for now.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS looks to hold its ground. 1053 HP descending from Montana. -20s up there. The consistency of the GFS with this is mind blowing

Don't do it ... don't try to kick that football, Ntxw! That's just want the GFS wants you to do. Remember the remarkable consistency re: the phantom Christmas storm for Texas? Sure, we're much closer to the event now with the GFS still consistently showing it ... but I will not be suckered in this time. Be cautious!

I'm going for the fake field goal run in for the touchdown. All hail the Canadian . It will be funny if now the Euro goes colder and GFS is the, relatively, warmest of the bunch

[Cpv17]

12z GFS looks to hold its ground. 1053 HP descending from Montana. -20s up there. The consistency of the GFS with this is mind blowing

Don't do it ... don't try to kick that football, Ntxw! That's just want the GFS wants you to do. Remember the remarkable consistency re: the phantom Christmas storm for Texas? Sure, we're much closer to the event now with the GFS still consistently showing it ... but I will not be suckered in this time. Be cautious!

I'm going for the fake field goal run in for the touchdown. All hail the Canadian . It will be funny if now the Euro goes colder and GFS is the, relatively, warmest of the bunch

Honestly, that could happen. I kinda think it will.

[Ralph's Weather]

The Canadian seems to have been preforming well lately. The GFS has been hit or miss but at least it hasn't been flip flopping every run. The Euro has been very inconsistent lately.

Performing well in what regard? It is consistently too cold with 2m temperatures in winter and has been for Texas per my observations. Do you mean in terms of the upper air pattern?

No model does well with surface temps beyond a couple days. Canadian can be too cold just like the GFS runs warm. The GFS is too progressive typically. The Canadian can be too agressive at times with storms, but it often is the first to latch onto the general idea of a storm. Then when we get close we can use the NAM to nail down the details of precip and temps along with tempering the Canadians extremes on strengthening systems. Like always we have to use all the models with our knowledge of their biases.

[Portastorm]

The Canadian seems to have been preforming well lately. The GFS has been hit or miss but at least it hasn't been flip flopping every run. The Euro has been very inconsistent lately.

Performing well in what regard? It is consistently too cold with 2m temperatures in winter and has been for Texas per my observations. Do you mean in terms of the upper air pattern?

No model does well with surface temps beyond a couple days. Canadian can be too cold just like the GFS runs warm. The GFS is too progressive typically. The Canadian can be too agressive at times with storms, but it often is the first to latch onto the general idea of a storm. Then when we get close we can use the NAM to nail down the details of precip and temps along with tempering the Canadians extremes on strengthening systems. Like always we have to use all the models with our knowledge of their biases.

I guess I'll have to pay better attention to the CMC as it's usually the first model I throw out due to its implausible temperatures. Meanwhile, I like your Facebook page! That's a nice weather resource for folks in your area of the state. Good job.

[Ntxw]

I'm intrigued by the s/w diving south late week. I never thought it would be separate but if the leading trough in the midwest can move out faster the storm can really dig. Canadian shows how it can work and the 0z Ecmwf opened the window with its shift

[bubba hotep]

The GFS is just the worst combo for Dallas - dry & cold! The Euro EPS shows about 10 members with a significant winter storm for DFW in the Jan 3-5 timeframe. It looks to be keying on the big cutoff that the op had in the SW yesterday but the 00z kept it offshore.