Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

The GFS is just the worst combo for Dallas - dry & cold! The Euro EPS shows about 10 members with a significant winter storm for DFW in the Jan 3-5 timeframe. It looks to be keying on the big cutoff that the op had in the SW yesterday but the 00z kept it offshore.

I hope so because I'm not the least bit excited about dry and cold.

[Cpv17]

The GFS is just the worst combo for Dallas - dry & cold! The Euro EPS shows about 10 members with a significant winter storm for DFW in the Jan 3-5 timeframe. It looks to be keying on the big cutoff that the op had in the SW yesterday but the 00z kept it offshore.

I hope so because I'm not the least bit excited about dry and cold.

Aren’t you inclined to believe though that with how active the STJ has been there will be at least some overcast skies and light post frontal precipitation?

[Brent]

The GFS is just the worst combo for Dallas - dry & cold! The Euro EPS shows about 10 members with a significant winter storm for DFW in the Jan 3-5 timeframe. It looks to be keying on the big cutoff that the op had in the SW yesterday but the 00z kept it offshore.

I hope so because I'm not the least bit excited about dry and cold.

Aren’t you inclined to believe though that with how active the STJ has been there will be at least some overcast skies and light post frontal precipitation?

Maybe. If the arctic air doesn't scour all the moisture out. I could totally see that. The colder it is probably the less moisture there will be.

[Lagreeneyes03]

The Canadian is the most extreme because it digs the trough more into the west and consolidates the energy at 500mb. That would be the most ideal for cold and snow, while the GFS and Euro is a more progressive sheared trough. The system in question enters the US Friday or so

Is the Canadian ever right though?

[Yukon Cornelius]

I’ll take dry and cold any day over dry and 80.

[Toadfrog]

Interesting. State offices are closed in Midland/Odessa due to weather. Nothing on radar, is the precip too light to register?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Interesting. State offices are closed in Midland/Odessa due to weather. Nothing on radar, is the precip too light to register?

That’s how it was here yesterday. Freezing drizzle and ice all day long but nothing on radar.

[Portastorm]

Interesting. State offices are closed in Midland/Odessa due to weather. Nothing on radar, is the precip too light to register?

In a word, yes. The Midland-Odessa area had freezing drizzle much of yesterday into last night and the overnight. Road conditions were poor which caused some businesses and government offices to close.

[Ralph's Weather]

I guess I'll have to pay better attention to the CMC as it's usually the first model I throw out due to its implausible temperatures. Meanwhile, I like your Facebook page! That's a nice weather resource for folks in your area of the state. Good job.

Thanks, I have been putting out local 7 day forecasts during the winter for close to 10 years now. I keep a spreadsheet of the NWS forecast, my forecast and what it ends up being. Doing so helps keep me honest, recognize my biases and to keep forecasts consistent day to day without swinging wildly based on model runs.

[Ntxw]

The Canadian is the most extreme because it digs the trough more into the west and consolidates the energy at 500mb. That would be the most ideal for cold and snow, while the GFS and Euro is a more progressive sheared trough. The system in question enters the US Friday or so

Is the Canadian ever right though?

Well to be fair, GFS had DFW 34-35 the day before Christmas for Christmas morning. Canadian had 24-25 for same time frame. It got to 27. So yes! I take the Canadian as possibilities if the 500mb pattern makes sense, otherwise if its alone, no weight

[Brent]

the Euro appears to be running on time today!!!

[gatorcane]

The CMC is off its rockers. Lol. Has 24F for Miami and 14F for Orlando in 10 days. Likewise is clearly way too cold for a Texas.

[Ntxw]

Euro is trending with better pac nw trough, march to gfs/continues. Maybe cmc with storm?

[Brent]

Euro is more with the GFS Saturday now being warmer...

let's see how the rest goes. GFS blasts the front through early Sunday

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The Euro is building the heights much quicker into Alaska compared to even its last run.

[Brent]

1053 mb high over Montana

Much more like the GFS at 96

Raining in DFW Saturday Night, still on the warmer side

[TeamPlayersBlue]

2 runs in a row, Euro i think has caved.

[Ntxw]

The Euro is building the heights much quicker into Alaska compared to even its last run.

I think this is the first recent run Euro goes 1050mb+ into Montana. Should be a cold run

[Brent]

Here it comes Sunday afternoon temps plunging in DFW

Just like the GFS

Maybe a little drizzle/flurry or something as temps get cold enough late Sunday afternoon/early evening

already in the 20s at midnight NYE

[Ntxw]

Look at 850mb temps up north. The coldest air is getting dammed up against the front range on the ecmwf