Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

Forecasts that are coming out right now are nothing like what the models are showing. The models are way colder. Seems like they’re being very conservative.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS GFS GFS...what a coup for this model - complete TKO of the Euro, the only model to maintain consistency and actually sense given the recent atmospheric signals

Every blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally.

But seriously, I'm surprised the GFS won this battle. That normally doesn't happen. When the Canadian and UKMET switched to the GFS camp a few days ago, that's when I knew the Euro was in trouble.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is dry as a bone yuk.

[Ralph's Weather]

The Euro has seemed pretty terible beyond day 5 or so lately.

[Brent]

Boo i hope the gfs is just wrong about being dry

I mean this week has been poorly forecast with moisture so

[Portastorm]

Forecasts that are coming out right now are nothing like what the models are showing. The models are way colder. Seems like they’re being very conservative.

We talk about this a fair amount on this forum but it probably behooves everyone to be reminded that the NWS is almost always conservative with their forecasts for an "event" several days out for good reason. It is more pragmatic to ease into a forecast by lowering temps and/or increasing chances of frozen precip than by going whole-hog, hook, line, and sinker and then having to dial it back. The former approach raises awareness and then elevates that awareness as the event grows closer. The latter immediately raises alarms and if it doesn't happen, the offices lose forecasting credibility. I think if the models stand pat, you'll see the various NWS forecast offices making statements of a more serious nature.

[CaptinCrunch]

Correct, you will see temps trend down over the next 72 hrs as the HP system pushes down. The trick is the precipitation which I think we'll have, just not sure how much, but a freezing drizzle or lite freezing rain looks to be best bet.

[missygirl810]

Well, has anyone consulted their Magic 8 Ball yet or do I need to?

[Cpv17]

I have a question for you guys. Yesterday’s 12z run of the GFS had it getting down to 17 degrees in my area with a 1042mb high pressure reading over my area at hour 168. Today’s 18z run of the GFS has a high pressure reading over my area of about 1039mb, but it is showing only 28 degrees. With only 3mb difference, why would the temperature be 11 degrees warmer?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

NAM seems to be showing what we thought could happen with such a strong HP. The dense air "pushing" the warmer air up creating lift and kicking off snow showers. I think this is our best bet in Dallas and SE Tx at the moment.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I have a question for you guys. Yesterday’s 12z run of the GFS had it getting down to 17 degrees in my area with a 1042mb high pressure reading over my area at hour 168. Today’s 18z run of the GFS has a high pressure reading over my area of about 1039mb, but it is showing only 28 degrees. With only 3mb difference, why would the temperature be 11 degrees warmer?

Many factors. Big one is wind. Need a nice calm night for temps to plummet. Also the model prolly doesnt have too much of an idea what the temps will be. It could be 5-10 degrees off.

[utweather]

I have a question for you guys. Yesterday’s 12z run of the GFS had it getting down to 17 degrees in my area with a 1042mb high pressure reading over my area at hour 168. Today’s 18z run of the GFS has a high pressure reading over my area of about 1039mb, but it is showing only 28 degrees. With only 3mb difference, why would the temperature be 11 degrees warmer?

Many factors. Big one is wind. Need a nice calm night for temps to plummet. Also the model prolly doesnt have too much of an idea what the temps will be. It could be 5-10 degrees off.

Probably some precise physics equation plugged into the model. If only it had all the correct inputs.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Something to watch that someone pointed out to me on twitter....

In CO on the GFS @ 132 hrs, there is some energy that could bring us the moisture we need. It was there on some past runs but popped back up again. It needs to dig a bit more and hang a bit more west but theres a chance!

[Cpv17]

I have a question for you guys. Yesterday’s 12z run of the GFS had it getting down to 17 degrees in my area with a 1042mb high pressure reading over my area at hour 168. Today’s 18z run of the GFS has a high pressure reading over my area of about 1039mb, but it is showing only 28 degrees. With only 3mb difference, why would the temperature be 11 degrees warmer?

Many factors. Big one is wind. Need a nice calm night for temps to plummet. Also the model prolly doesnt have too much of an idea what the temps will be. It could be 5-10 degrees off.

The closer the isobars are together, the windier it will be, correct?

[perk]

Forecasts that are coming out right now are nothing like what the models are showing. The models are way colder. Seems like they’re being very conservative.

We talk about this a fair amount on this forum but it probably behooves everyone to be reminded that the NWS is almost always conservative with their forecasts for an "event" several days out for good reason. It is more pragmatic to ease into a forecast by lowering temps and/or increasing chances of frozen precip than by going whole-hog, hook, line, and sinker and then having to dial it back. The former approach raises awareness and then elevates that awareness as the event grows closer. The latter immediately raises alarms and if it doesn't happen, the offices lose forecasting credibility. I think if the models stand pat, you'll see the various NWS forecast offices making statements of a more serious nature.

Portastorm you're absolutely right,HGX took a more conservative approach to the 12/7 snow event.So did our local ocm's.

[Brent]

I have a question for you guys. Yesterday’s 12z run of the GFS had it getting down to 17 degrees in my area with a 1042mb high pressure reading over my area at hour 168. Today’s 18z run of the GFS has a high pressure reading over my area of about 1039mb, but it is showing only 28 degrees. With only 3mb difference, why would the temperature be 11 degrees warmer?

Many factors. Big one is wind. Need a nice calm night for temps to plummet. Also the model prolly doesnt have too much of an idea what the temps will be. It could be 5-10 degrees off.

The closer the isobars are together, the windier it will be, correct?

Yup you want no wind and clear skies to maximum the radiational cooling. Wind always keeps temps up because the air doesnt settle

[Quixotic]

Something to watch that someone pointed out to me on twitter....

In CO on the GFS @ 132 hrs, there is some energy that could bring us the moisture we need. It was there on some past runs but popped back up again. It needs to dig a bit more and hang a bit more west but theres a chance!

Indeed. Some of the sneaky stuff comes from the NW. someone mentioned the 2000-2001 snow. It wasn’t forecasted until a day or two before. I’d take a sneaky fluffy inch or two.

[wxman22]

Something to watch that someone pointed out to me on twitter....

In CO on the GFS @ 132 hrs, there is some energy that could bring us the moisture we need. It was there on some past runs but popped back up again. It needs to dig a bit more and hang a bit more west but theres a chance!

That is why the Canadian produces a winter storm across the state, because it digs the energy more than the Euro or GFS.

[Theepicman116]

Something to watch that someone pointed out to me on twitter....

In CO on the GFS @ 132 hrs, there is some energy that could bring us the moisture we need. It was there on some past runs but popped back up again. It needs to dig a bit more and hang a bit more west but theres a chance!

That is why the Canadian produces a winter storm across the state, because it digs the energy more than the Euro or GFS.

So the Canadian just says "Hey energy, you're a pretty cool cat. I dig you. I'm going to let you stay. You know the Euro and the GFS? Yeah? Their squares!"

[Ntxw]

DFW had an official high of 41F which was after 1am. Mid afternoon high was 38. Good freeze tonight in the upper 20s. This will continue to bring down December's average to make it still above normal but nowhere near where it could be or prior years. January will start with some spectacular negative anomalies. I'd like to see for once a winter month back below normal again. The coveted sub 40 monthly average has not occurred since December 2000. Came close 2009-2010 (December and Feb) and December 2013. When you think of the big cold outbreak months, you think sub 40 monthly average.

Meanwhile we await the ever important 0z runs about to start with the NAM. Two things we will be watching for, strength of high pressure and movement of the 500mb vort in the Pacific northwest. It will soon be sampled in the next few days.