Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Wntrwthrguy]

Center of cold looks to be more N/NE on this GFS run then previous runs.

[Ntxw]

GFS sure has gone warmer. DFW's Monday low has increased 15 degrees since yesterday

What else is new

I don't think DFW's low is going to be 20F with a 1054mb sitting in Nebraska. It got to 22 earlier in the month with less...16F last December also with less. HIstorical precedent of set ups similar is usually 10-15F range

[stormlover2013]

This is why I always say wait till about 2 days before event, I’ve been saying Thursday or Friday we will get a grasp on things

[Ntxw]

This is why I always say wait till about 2 days before event, I’ve been saying Thursday or Friday we will get a grasp on things

We already have a grasp on things! We're just being nit picky about surface temps. Super cold vs just very cold

Still looking for snow though, got to wring it out and not waste all the cold

[wxman22]

Canadian still has a storm across central and southeast Texas fwiw.

[stormlover2013]

No this is why u don’t model huh 3-5 days before events/cold in Texas, models are going to be up and down, even Cmc is different from past runs, Gfs isn’t as cold either and go look at Gfs run this time last night, World of difference!!!

[Cpv17]

GFS sure has gone warmer. DFW's Monday low has increased 15 degrees since yesterday

What else is new

This doesn’t surprise me. The GFS does that at this range. It’ll probably trend colder again once we get inside a day or two from the event.

[Ntxw]

GFS gets DFW below freezing Sunday Noonish and stays below freezing through Weds morning, highs mostly in the 20s.

[Brent]

This is why I always say wait till about 2 days before event, I’ve been saying Thursday or Friday we will get a grasp on things

We already have a grasp on things! We're just being nit picky about surface temps. Super cold vs just very cold

Still looking for snow though, got to wring it out and not waste all the cold

I agree, I don't really care about extreme cold anyway, I'd much rather have snow

[Ntxw]

GFS sure has gone warmer. DFW's Monday low has increased 15 degrees since yesterday

What else is new

This doesn’t surprise me. The GFS does that at this range. It’ll probably trend colder again once we get inside a day or two from the event.

I don't really take the surface temps seriously until we get within 48 hours and you can compare it with the NAM. Which usually is pretty good with arctic fronts.

[stormlover2013]

Nam is totally different from Cmc and gfs!! Nam did well 3 weeks ago, still have 2 more days

[South Texas Storms]

This is why I always say wait till about 2 days before event, I’ve been saying Thursday or Friday we will get a grasp on things

We already have a grasp on things! We're just being nit picky about surface temps. Super cold vs just very cold

Still looking for snow though, got to wring it out and not waste all the cold

I agree, I don't really care about extreme cold anyway, I'd much rather have snow

Me too. I really don't like the cold if there is no snow with it.

Still time for the models to start showing some more precip. Let's see what the Euro shows in 2 hours.

[Ntxw]

I think the Canadian has lost its sanity, or what's left of it. Sends DFW back into single digits with second big arctic high late week. GFS more modest warms us up to 40F then another arctic front comes through and is near freezing highs again late week

[Brent]

I think the Canadian has lost its sanity, or what's left of it. Sends DFW back into single digits with second big arctic high late week. GFS more modest warms us up to 40F then another arctic front comes through and is near freezing highs again late week

I'm sorry, the Canadian had sanity?

[Ntxw]

GFS beyond truncation again shows deep cyclogenesis from the Sea of Okhotsk into the Aleutians-western Bering. More air from Siberia crossing over the pole. Not too different than the trend the past day or so from globals

[South Texas Storms]

0z UKMET 500mb pattern looks interesting next week. Might show some frozen precip for parts of TX. Will find out when the precip maps update in 45 mins.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS shows much of the state getting less than 0.25 inch of rain over the next 2 weeks. That would not be good...

Thankfully the other models are more active in the week 1-2 time period.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it to a balmy 29 at the house today. Was a nice day but spent most of it busting ice off of livestock water troughs.

[Cpv17]

GFS sure has gone warmer. DFW's Monday low has increased 15 degrees since yesterday

What else is new

This doesn’t surprise me. The GFS does that at this range. It’ll probably trend colder again once we get inside a day or two from the event.

I don't really take the surface temps seriously until we get within 48 hours and you can compare it with the NAM. Which usually is pretty good with arctic fronts.

Surface temps on the GFS make no sense with that strong of a high over the central plains.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro is on time tonight! Let's see if it shows anything exciting.