Texas Winter 2017-2018

[toto]

Quiet in here. Is the Euro still running?

The Euro went towards the GFS solution of warmer and drier. That’s why it’s quiet, but yes, it’s still running.

What is the latest model forecast for Dallas... I pray it's warmer and dryer.

.

[orangeblood]

very boring Euro run. Coldest DFW gets is low/mid 20s

Needs more precip

the east coast gets buried in snow, how shocking

As if they don’t get enough Why does it have to be so hard to get some winter weather around here??

We live below the 35th parallel is a big reason why...the odds of winter weather in this part of the world are EXTREMELY low. For us to even be discussing it is a bonus in of itself. IMO, this board would be much more enjoyable if some members would make their postings more from that perspective

[Brent]

Quiet in here. Is the Euro still running?

The Euro went towards the GFS solution of warmer and drier. That’s why it’s quiet, but yes, it’s still running.

What is the latest model forecast for Dallas... I pray it's warmer and dryer.

.

Several mornings with 20s for lows highs in the 30s and 40s

Still quite cold

[Brent]

very boring Euro run. Coldest DFW gets is low/mid 20s

Needs more precip

the east coast gets buried in snow, how shocking

As if they don’t get enough Why does it have to be so hard to get some winter weather around here??

We live below the 35th parallel is a big reason why...the odds of winter weather in this part of the world are EXTREMELY low. For us to even be discussing it is a bonus in of itself. IMO, this board would be much more enjoyable if some members would make their postings more from that perspective

true points... I mean I know we all get annoyed(and I fully admit I do as well), but we live in a place that averages an inch of snow a year and many years never gets much(if you look at the snow records readily avaliable on the NWS website). The years like 09/10 are very few in number in 120+ years of record

Its much easier for places further north to get snow... they only need like 4 things to go right, we need everything perfect.

The fact we're even having sustained cold this winter is something in itself. We certainly have no shot when its 75 all winter.

and who knows, the winter is young, our best snow climo is still ahead usually, we can still get lucky at the last minute too next week, the models haven't been that great lately anyway.

[Cpv17]

Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
2h
Would watch for storm threat evolving west next week as major cold over land but very warm water and height fall center through nations midsection argue against escape. GFS likely too progressive as per its normal bias

I think this is good news?

[ronyan]

I don't understand why anyone is disappointed because we pretty much know that it will be colder than forecast at the surface by the models. How many times does it have to happen for you to believe it?

[Cpv17]

I don't understand why anyone is disappointed because we pretty much know that it will be colder than forecast at the surface by the models. How many times does it have to happen for you to believe it?

I’m not disappointed. I fully expect the models to be 5-10 degrees too warm. They pretty much always are. So if the GFS/Euro are saying 20 for your location right now then I would expect it to be 10 or 15 instead. The GFS had surface temperatures right a couple days ago in my opinion and then it got warmer with each passing run. The GFS has a bias of doing that as the event draws closer and then it’ll trend colder again as we get within 24 hours or so. I’ve noticed this happens a lot with the GFS and also it does have a bias of being too progressive with ejection of storm systems and shunting them east of us too quickly. I do believe in my honest opinion right now that about half of the state has a decent chance at seeing winter precipitation within the next 10 days or so. Just keeping the faith. You can’t just rely on the op runs. I think some people may be disappointed because they’re just focusing on op runs. There are many other things that have to be taken into consideration.

[CaptinCrunch]

New Drought Map released shows some improvement across NTX.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't understand why anyone is disappointed because we pretty much know that it will be colder than forecast at the surface by the models. How many times does it have to happen for you to believe it?

Indeed. The good ol' GFS as of last Saturday had us in the 50s and 60's for yesterday and today as well as Friday. High Temp yesterday and today Mid 40's. High for tomorrow, maybe 50. I saw the NWS Corpus AFD from this afternoon and I think if I read between the lines they are unsure of the where the temps are ultimately going to bottom out, but they've left room for the bottom to fall out and freezing precip too.

[Cpv17]

Guys look, this is why you can’t really trust the GFS with temperatures. It’s off by 30 degrees in many locations just one week out.

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
358 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight through Friday Night/

The sharp subsidence inversion aloft has acted as a lid, keeping
enough moisture trapped to prevent much dissipation in the clouds
throughout the day today. This will be the case through the night
as well, with an improvement expected to begin Friday morning.
Given the slow thinning of cloud cover expected to happen
overnight, and light winds, temperatures will remain in the low to
mid 30s.

Additional west to east clearing is expected during the day on
Friday, with clouds sticking around in the northeast. High
temperatures on Friday will be dependent on how much, and how far
east, clouds manage to clear out. The more hours of sunshine a
location gets, the higher the temperatures will be. In the west,
temperatures will reach the mid 50s, while low to mid 40s are
expected in the northeast. Winds are expected to veer to the
south through the day, but not much warm air advection will be
associated with the southerly winds.

A weak surface low will start to develop in the Texas panhandle
overnight on Friday, allowing for a surge of moisture to stream
across the the area. Dew point temperatures will climb from the
low 30s to mid 40s across Central Texas through the night. With
weak isentropic ascent, and a saturated lower atmosphere, patchy
drizzle will be possible after midnight and across southern
portions of North Texas south of I-20. Temperatures Friday night
into Saturday morning will be in the mid 30s across the Red River
and mid 40s across Central Texas.

Long portion of the AFD will be out shortly.

This means they don't have a lot of confindence in the solutions, so they still tossing darts.....

[Brent]

the GFS is so predictable... and never right with temps...

Dry cold on the GFS through mid week

[CaptinCrunch]

the GFS is so predictable... and never right with temps...

Dry cold on the GFS through mid week

They have brought the 10% of drizzle all the way into friday night now, 20% Sat/night, 30% winter mix Sunday/Night.

[bubba hotep]

Guys look, this is why you can’t really trust the GFS with temperatures. It’s off by 30 degrees in many locations just one week out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_29.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_1.png

This isn't really a case of the GFS busting the surface temp forecast and is more of a case of the GFS busting the synoptic setup. The warmer run had a deep trough into Baja with warmer SW flow out in front of the trough. The colder run replaced the trough with ridging and we are under NW flow.

The GFS has been warming surface temps across portions of Texas over the last few runs and it is doing this by altering the orientation of the Western ridge and Great Lakes trough. It has trended from the amped up setup that was allowing the coldest 850s to crash down the Front Range and into Texas to a more zonal look that is allowing the coldest 850s to bleed off towards the East.

[Ntxw]

Time to go back to Feb 2011 winter thread and see what models did some days before the blast!

[srainhoutx]

I was reading back a week before the December 7th- 8th snow event on the KHOU Weather Board and it wasn't until Tuesday when the shorter range Mesoscale Models where within 48 hours of that event starting that we had somewhat of a clue that there was a chance of a wintry mix and at 48 hours those shorter term models where guessing mostly a Coastal Counties event versus what really happened. Keep that in the back of your mind when attempting to analyze what may occur Monday into Tuesday.

The afternoon Updated Surface Charts for Monday and Tuesday hint at a wave of low pressure in the NW Gulf with a Coastal trough. Also it is not often we see the Weather Prediction Center indicate a 1056 Artic high over Nebraska New Year's Day. I certainly believe it's going to be much colder than the early December snow event. As far as an precipitation falling through that cold air, that's the $64,000 question.

[Cpv17]

Guys look, this is why you can’t really trust the GFS with temperatures. It’s off by 30 degrees in many locations just one week out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_29.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_1.png

This isn't really a case of the GFS busting the surface temp forecast and is more of a case of the GFS busting the synoptic setup. The warmer run had a deep trough into Baja with warmer SW flow out in front of the trough. The colder run replaced the trough with ridging and we are under NW flow.

The GFS has been warming surface temps across portions of Texas over the last few runs and it is doing this by altering the orientation of the Western ridge and Great Lakes trough. It has trended from the amped up setup that was allowing the coldest 850s to crash down the Front Range and into Texas to a more zonal look that is allowing the coldest 850s to bleed off towards the East.

That is true, but even if you go out to just 3-4 days ago the GFS was off with temps in my area by about 10 degrees.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/

Our well-advertised arctic outbreak is still on schedule to
envelop North and Central Texas beginning Saturday afternoon, and
culminating with likely some of the coldest air of the winter by
New Years Day and Tuesday.

The latest guidance is in decent agreement in bringing the
leading edge of the cold air southward through the forecast area
during the daytime hours Saturday. One challenging aspect will be the
presence of a subtle wave on the front, which the GFS and NAM
track southeastward toward Palestine/College Station by late
afternoon Saturday. Depending on how this low plays out, we could
see a bit more baroclinicity along the front, which in addition
to enhancing the temperature contrast across North Texas, may
affect the cloud and precipitation forecast for Saturday. Not a
lot of confidence on Saturday`s forecast, but suffice to say
there`ll be a significant contrast in temperatures by mid
afternoon from, say, Gainesville to Killeen and Palestine. For
now, have kept small pops across eastern North Texas for the
potential of intermittent light rain showers.

Things get a bit more straightforward, temperature-wise from
Saturday night onward. The freezing line by 12z Sunday may extend
from near Comanche to DFW to Sulphur Springs, and driving
southward. Cold air advection will start increasing Sunday as
north winds pick up. Temperatures along and north of I-20 will
have a hard time rebounding at all from their Sunday morning
readings. Farther south, some areas will be able to reach the 40s
prior to midday, before the colder air starts to invade.

By New Year`s morning, low temperatures will have dropped well
into the teens across virtually all but the southernmost counties
of the forecast area. A rebound into the lower 30s will occur
across the south, but from I-20 northward, readings will remain
entrenched in the mid to upper 20s, despite the presence of low-
angle winter sunshine.

The other big challenge remains the precipitation forecast. To cut
to the chase, held onto chance pops for generally the eastern
half of the area Saturday night, trending southward during the day
Sunday. Small pops were maintained elsewhere. Large-scale lift
associated with cyclonic vorticity advection or warm advection is
not pronounced whatsoever. However, there is a modest amount of
isentropic upglide being depicted by the models across North and
Central Texas Saturday night/early Sunday morning, well behind the
cold front. This lift may be sufficient to induce some widely
scattered LIGHT rain, or more likely, some occasional drizzle
across much of the area. There simply isn`t enough deep moisture
to suggest any significant amounts...BUT...where the liquid
precipitation coincides with temperatures below 32 degrees - we
could see some light icing, particularly on elevated road
surfaces. We may also see a few snow flurries across the northern
counties on Sunday, but again, with moisture in limited supply,
don`t expect any accumulations from this precipition type.

The main time period to be concerned about any slick
spots would be across far North Texas early Sunday morning,
especially between I-20 and the Red River, shifting into central
Texas by early New Year`s Eve. The models are in good agreement
about drying the airmass from north to south during the day
Sunday, likely bringing an end to any precipitation in a similar
fashion.

For Tuesday onward - didn`t make any major changes to the previous
forecast. It will remain cold through the period, yet dry.

Bradshaw

[South Texas Storms]

I was reading back a week before the December 7th- 8th snow event on the KHOU Weather Board and it wasn't until Tuesday when the shorter range Mesoscale Models where within 48 hours of that event starting that we had somewhat of a clue that there was a chance of a wintry mix and at 48 hours those shorter term models where guessing mostly a Coastal Counties event versus what really happened. Keep that in the back of your mind when attempting to analyze what may occur Monday into Tuesday.

The afternoon Updated Surface Charts for Monday and Tuesday hint at a wave of low pressure in the NW Gulf with a Coastal trough. Also it is not often we see the Weather Prediction Center indicate a 1056 Artic high over Nebraska New Year's Day. I certainly believe it's going to be much colder than the early December snow event. As far as an precipitation falling through that cold air, that's the $64,000 question.

Yeah I still think central and southeast TX has a shot of seeing some frozen precip on Tuesday as that disturbance moves across the region. We'll see what the models show in the next few days. Canadian continues to show it, and the Euro jumped on board at 0z. This time period certainly has me intrigued.

[Rgv20]

The GFS has come in warmer with each passing run for my area....It now has temperatures in the mid 40s for New Years day. Yesterday and today we have had temperatures in the mid 40s and now that an Arctic front will come in I'm supposed to believe those temps...