Texas Winter 2017-2018

[toto]

Winters are nice down here, we get quite a few days of "London in the Valley" Cloudy Drizzle with temperatures in the 40s, that is our winter weather

Summers are brutal tho so beware

Humid heat ??

I was also thinking about El Paso.

.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM is also a little stronger with the HP. DFW is falling throughout Sunday into the mid-upper 20s. GFS again 10F warmer than this NAM run.

KAUS is below freezing by 6pm Sunday. GFS said 40-45

[South Texas Storms]

Over 200 pages in the thread before January. We've already had a lot to talk about, and the next few weeks look active!

0z NAM also has our secondary disturbance dropping southeastward from Montana at the end of the run. Wonder if it will show any threat of frozen precip across TX when it goes out that far in a day or two.

[stormlover2013]

South Texas what is ur gut saying ?

[Ntxw]

And this is where the NAM run ends

[South Texas Storms]

South Texas what is ur gut saying ?

I think we have a slight chance of seeing some snow on Tuesday across central and southeast TX as the second disturbance moves through. Euro and Canadian were showing this at 0z, and I wouldn't be surprised if they brought it back over the next few days. Still plenty of time to watch.

[Rgv20]

0z NAM is also a little stronger with the HP. DFW is falling throughout Sunday into the mid-upper 20s. GFS again 10F warmer than this NAM run.

KAUS is below freezing by 6pm Sunday. GFS said 40-45

For Edinburg on Monday Morning the 0z NAM has mid 30s vs GFS upper 40s and ECMWF low 50s. Going by history I would side with the NAM





[/quote]


Humid heat ??

I was also thinking about El Paso.

.[/quote]

Very very humid...

[Ntxw]

0z NAM is also a little stronger with the HP. DFW is falling throughout Sunday into the mid-upper 20s. GFS again 10F warmer than this NAM run.

KAUS is below freezing by 6pm Sunday. GFS said 40-45

For Edinburg on Monday Morning the 0z NAM has mid 30s vs GFS upper 40s and ECMWF low 50s. Going by history I would side with the NAM

For an arctic front I would side with the NAM too. It's wheelbarrow is within 48 hours so we're still a little outside of it's kill zone. The slower speed of the lower resolution OP globals is because of the upper flow which they want to slow it down. NAM is mesoscale higher resolution model.

[South Texas Storms]

There's going to be a lot of unhappy campers in here if we see an extended period of cold weather with no snow, myself included.

It's gotta happen, right? I think we'll eventually find the moisture and disturbance to mix with the cold air.

[Ntxw]

There's going to be a lot of unhappy campers in here if we see an extended period of cold weather with no snow, myself included.

It's gotta happen, right? I think we'll eventually find the moisture and disturbance to mix with the cold air.

Brent said it best earlier. It can't snow if it isn't cold and 75. And it's even harder to find cold when it's warm..keep it cold and eventually it will snow .

And in Texas it's warm 9 months out of the year so there is plenty of that!

[MississippiWx]

There's going to be a lot of unhappy campers in here if we see an extended period of cold weather with no snow, myself included.

It's gotta happen, right? I think we'll eventually find the moisture and disturbance to mix with the cold air.

Brent said it best earlier. It can't snow if it isn't cold and 75. And it's even harder to find cold when it's warm..keep it cold and eventually it will snow

It’s winter. I, personally, like for it to be cold during the winter!

We need that second shortwave diving into the base of the trough on Monday and Tuesday to be stronger. The potential is certainly there.

[toto]

I don't see a DFW "heat island" effect on that NAM temperature map.

[Ntxw]

I don't see a DFW "heat island" effect on that NAM temperature map.

The heat island isn't as prevalent when you have cold air advection and incoming air mass as the air is not generated locally. It's large scale. When you're talking calm nights/days is when it's noticeable.

[Brent]

There's going to be a lot of unhappy campers in here if we see an extended period of cold weather with no snow, myself included.

It's gotta happen, right? I think we'll eventually find the moisture and disturbance to mix with the cold air.

Brent said it best earlier. It can't snow if it isn't cold and 75. And it's even harder to find cold when it's warm..keep it cold and eventually it will snow .

And in Texas it's warm 9 months out of the year so there is plenty of that!

I'm kind of torn though... I really don't want an extended cold dry spell either... I want this pattern to produce sooner rather than later.

a winter that is just cold and no snow is still gonna get a poor grade from me tbh, not as poor as torching all winter but still poor.

I really don't have an issue with hitting 70s in the winter as long as it's short-lived and has something good after it.

[Ntxw]

I'm kind of torn though... I really don't want an extended cold dry spell either... I want this pattern to produce sooner rather than later.

Me too, I want snow with it. But you know how it is here. If it isn't cold and dry then it's worse...warm and dry.

[stormlover2013]

Thanks south

[Yukon Cornelius]

There's going to be a lot of unhappy campers in here if we see an extended period of cold weather with no snow, myself included.

It's gotta happen, right? I think we'll eventually find the moisture and disturbance to mix with the cold air.

Brent said it best earlier. It can't snow if it isn't cold and 75. And it's even harder to find cold when it's warm..keep it cold and eventually it will snow .

And in Texas it's warm 9 months out of the year so there is plenty of that!

I’ll take cold and dry no problem and keep smiling. Working outside, 90s and 100s get old fast. Cold is really nice, frozen precip is just a plus.

[Ntxw]

2013-2014 for me was kind of like this before February. It wasn't a snow-full season but there was a lot of cold. The ice storm in December made it memorable but that wasn't snow. Then it was cold a lot and south of here (gulf coast) had snow in mid-late January. DFW didn't see real snow until February about once maybe twice but not much of it.

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies push the "warm up" back into February. They look pretty active in mid-January for a lot of Texas. It will be interesting to watch the newest MJO pulse that the models are firing off. If it can get around to Phase 7 then we get this for P7, Nina, Jan:

[Brent]

NAM still trying to show some flurries in DFW Sunday morning