O
WTIO30-FMEE: RSMC La Reunion Forecast Warning
WTIO30 FMEE 030031 RRB
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER. THE
CURVATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDINGS REMAINED HIGH BUT THESE CLOUD
PATTERNS HAVE TENDED TO CRUMBLE ON THE LAST IR SAT IMAGES. THE 2324Z
SSMI MW IMAGES CONFIRM A CLEAR GAIN IN ORGANISATION WITH A RING OF
CONVECTION OPENED IN ITS SOUTHERN HALF. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WHILE WAITING FOR NEWER
AND CLEARER OBSERVATION DATA.
OVER THE LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM SLOWED DOWN PROBABLY BECAUSE OF A
FLAT LOW CIRCULATING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING THE STEERING
FLOW DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE AXED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN.
FROM TOMORROW, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO
FORECAST A SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK. A LANDFALL OVER THE MALAGASY
COASTLINE REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AND SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY EVENING. THEN, THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SHOWS A HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM RETURNS
OVER SEA SOMETIME DURING NEXT WEEK-END.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS VERY CONDUCIVE BOTH EQUATORWARD AND
POLERWARD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE LIGHT EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
SHOULD NOT BE VERY SIGNIFICANT AND ALLOW A RATHER FAST PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION. DURING THE WEEK-END, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT
THE TIME OF ITS POSSIBLE RETURN OVER SEA REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. IN
SUCH A SCENARIO, THE LOW WOULD STILL BENEFIT FROM CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY LEADING TO A RE-INTENSIFICATION.
THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY COASTLINES AND ON THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=
WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 022324Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE EVIDENCES IMPROVED
CORE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK,
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE AT 28C TO 29C. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, TC 03S IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). CONSEQUENTLY, THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION
THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD AND THE
STR RE-ORIENTS AND BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST, PROVIDING A
SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BUT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR
TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS RAPIDLY EVOLVING PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 120.
TC 03S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 BUT MAY REGENERATE AS A SUBTROPICAL
LOW AFTER TAU 120 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc18/ ... HREE/atcf/