Texas Winter 2017-2018

[stormlover2013]

Yeah but we all know it will change, this has changed about 15 times already

[Quixotic]

BTW, I just bought half a cord of wood. Last time I did that was 13-14.

[Ntxw]

Yeah but we all know it will change, this has changed about 15 times already

Then we will discuss all 15 changes if we like. It's a free forum. Whether to believe it or not is the reader's choice. If you would like, you could also feel free to post your insights on why a model is wrong or how it could change.

We all know the problems with models and we have lived it for years!

[orangeblood]

I wouldn’t bring anything up 9 days out lol, why talk about it when we know It won’t pan out

Because this is a Winter Weather DISCUSSION Board...we discuss past present and future weather on here. We've had numerous models forecast events 9, 10 even 15 days out over the past several years that did pan out so it is very much warranted. I would suggest sticking to the national weather service website if you're looking for 2 day forecast discussions

[Ntxw]

Speaking of longer range, here is the JMA at 500mb. Hopefully we can trend to a good SW digging trough. As orangeblood said climo is on our side now so it doesn't need to get really cold for snow

[Texas Snow]

Yeah but we all know it will change, this has changed about 15 times already

Then we will discuss all 15 changes if we like. It's a free forum. Whether to believe it or not is the reader's choice. If you would like, you could also feel free to post your insights on why a model is wrong or how it could change.

We all know the problems with models and we have lived it for years!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah but we all know it will change, this has changed about 15 times already

90% of your posts look just like this. If you’re going to be a broken record with no meaningful insight, I suggest... just lurking.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion...

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): High temperatures on Sunday
will occur early enough in the afternoon to avoid significant
anomalies, checking in right around normal. With a solid H5 ridge
along the West Coast Sunday, arctic air will plunge south along
the lee of the Rockies under a short wave trough digging across
the northern Plains and then the upper Midwest. The trough will
translate east while the cold air continues south, with the
initial push and wind shift through the CWA by Sundown Sunday. It
will then be a matter of bracing yourselves for the CAA to follow
through much of the remainder of the long term.

There will be initial light rain Sunday night and Monday, but
after that most precipitation will stay closer to the coast and
over the Gulf where coastal troughing will set up. For this run,
blended the slightly colder NAM into the mix for Sunday night and
Monday. This resulted in low temperatures ranging from the lower
to mid 30s across the north to the mid 40s for the lower valley.
The NAM model guidance now shows a slight chance, low probability
of light ice pellets for early Monday morning across the
ranchlands and brush country, courtesy of a very narrow elevated
wedge of saturated boundary layer air to the left of the zero
degree isotherm. High temperatures on Monday will struggle to get
into the 40s.

Both of the main long term models bring an H5 shortwave trough
south over the Plains toward the southeast United States on
Tuesday, shifting the core of cold plains air farther south.
Another wave digs south out of central Canada into the upper
Midwest next Wednesday, with reinforcing high pressure sliding
south toward the RGV, keeping high temperatures from getting too
much out of the 40s.

To recap, Monday morning will be sharply colder, with temps having
decreased through the night. Expect mid 30s across the ranchlands,
with a few freezing marks, to the mid 40s near the lower coast. Rain
chances will be in the 50 to 60 percent range, mostly light rain
with accumulations in the hundredths to tenths, but can`t rule out a
few ice pellets with limited accumulation for the ranchlands.
With a little bit of north wind Monday morning, wind chill values
could dip to the mid 20s well inland, and to the 30s near the
coast. Temps Monday, will struggle to get into the 40s.

The cold weather, with temperatures 25 degrees below average,
will persist through mid week. Monday and Tuesday night lows may
be the coldest, ranging from around 30 across the north to the mid
and upper 30s toward the coast. Confidence is increasing for some
freezing temperatures across the northern tier counties. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 40s with upper 40s to near
50 possible on Wednesday. Wednesday night will still be quite cold
as skies begin to clear.

Western U.S. ridging will finally edge farther east Wednesday and
Thursday, allowing for slow air mass modification. Nonetheless,
clearing skies and light winds will sustain overnight low temps
Wednesday and even Thursday night in the 30s and 40s,
respectively, while high temperatures in the 50s will be possible
on Thursday, followed by 60s on Friday.

[Yukon Cornelius]

By the forecast, it appears I will drop below freezing tonight and stay below freezing until Wednesday sometime. A couple of the lows are pretty close to single digit which wouldn't surprise me as these type of fronts always seem to settle in colder than forecasted. The forecast is also for the Wichita Falls area and where I live in relation always seems to be anywhere from 5-10 degrees cooler than in the city limits. So.....I have a ton of prep to do before the real cold gets here.

[utweather]

Overnight runs of the GFS and Euro are pretty close together now. Cold in SE TX but no precip. Upper 20s in the Houston area and low 20s up in the DFW area on a few days next week. Highs only in the 30s. Colder than normal but no really big deal. Canadian is still nuts temperature and precip-wise. Could see a few snow flurries up north (DFW) as the precip ends Sunday, but that may be it. One issue as far as extreme cold is that the snow pack is just not very far south for this time of year. The air is modifying more as it moves south.

Although not deep, snowcover appears fairly far south for this time of year...a little above normal. Not sure there will be significant moderation to this airmass

I thought the panhandle: Oklahoma City and Amarillo would have snow on the ground by now?? Have they gotten any snow this season yet?

[Ntxw]

I thought the panhandle: Oklahoma City and Amarillo would have snow on the ground by now?? Have they gotten any snow this season yet?

Amarillo has only seen a trace of snowfall this season. Oklahoma City has 0.1". Houston, Austin, San Antonio have all seen more

[Cpv17]

Speaking of longer range, here is the JMA at 500mb. Hopefully we can trend to a good SW digging trough. As orangeblood said climo is on our side now so it doesn't need to get really cold for snow

We need that to dig down into the Baja or the Gulf of California and we’d be in business!

[Cpv17]

How’s the blocking over Alaska looking the next couple weeks?

[hamburgerman7070]

Speaking of longer range, here is the JMA at 500mb. Hopefully we can trend to a good SW digging trough. As orangeblood said climo is on our side now so it doesn't need to get really cold for snow

Ntxw, I was wondering about why does the euro ens and gefs show a favorable pattern but the op runs dont have some action in that 9-11 day timeframe? Do you think the pna will be favorable for a solution the ensembles are indicating?

[Ntxw]

How’s the blocking over Alaska looking the next couple weeks?

Looks pretty stable with undercutting systems. NW Pac cyclogenesis will keep it around and it should flex at times. Just truly hoping the split flow forecasts pan out and the PNA is brought down. Nothing like a mid continent flow of cold and east coast warm up

Ntxw, I was wondering about why does the euro ens and gefs show a favorable pattern but the op runs dont have some action in that 9-11 day timeframe? Do you think the pna will be favorable for a solution the ensembles are indicating?

It's best to use the modeled synoptic pattern when beyond 7 days and not so much at the surface. How they handle is important to what they show. The daily SOI has gone positive weakly so perhaps ending the chain. Perhaps that is an early sign of PNA relaxation.

There is a boundary of frigid air in Kansas, relatively milder below. Surface frontogenesis should occur there tonight and our winds will shift from southerly to northerly tomorrow morning in North Texas ushering in gradual cold. For some, whatever the temp is in the morning is likely your high for the day. The really dense cold comes in tomorrow afternoon. The Oklahoma Mesonet will be a fun watch.





It's pretty much nowcasting time watching the air move. Near 70 in Amarillo right now. They will be near 0 come New Year's morning.

[EnnisTx]

Yeah but we all know it will change, this has changed about 15 times already

90% of your posts look just like this. If you’re going to be a broken record with no meaningful insight, I suggest... just lurking.

Happy New Years Eve everyone!! My resolution is to learn more about the weather and models....

[orangeblood]

How’s the blocking over Alaska looking the next couple weeks?

Very promising!!

[Ralph's Weather]

How’s the blocking over Alaska looking the next couple weeks?

Very promising!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_11.png

That is a very promising look for the long range ensemble mean if you want cold and snow.

[Cpv17]

How’s the blocking over Alaska looking the next couple weeks?

Very promising!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_11.png

That is a very promising look for the long range ensemble mean if you want cold and snow.

Dang right that is!

[Portastorm]

I thought the panhandle: Oklahoma City and Amarillo would have snow on the ground by now?? Have they gotten any snow this season yet?

Amarillo has only seen a trace of snowfall this season. Oklahoma City has 0.1". Houston, Austin, San Antonio have all seen more

Amarillo is in the midst of a terrible drought. They have not had measurable precipitation in 77 days.