Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

Speaking of December 1983. We played more outdoor ice hockey in Plano TX that 2 weeks than anytime before or since, I’m positive of that. Creeks, iced over tennis courts etc. We got pretty good at it in tennis shoes and my yankee friends’ hockey gear lol.

Still remains the longest Dallas has stayed below freezing

Really hard to imagine 12 days below freezing

[gpsnowman]

Speaking of December 1983. We played more outdoor ice hockey in Plano TX that 2 weeks than anytime before or since, I’m positive of that. Creeks, iced over tennis courts etc. We got pretty good at it in tennis shoes and my yankee friends’ hockey gear lol.

Still remains the longest Dallas has stayed below freezing

Really hard to imagine 12 days below freezing

No kidding. We are about to have 2 or 3 days below freezing and it will feel like an a long time.

[Quixotic]

December 83 was the closest I felt to living in the north. Single digits at night. Teens in the day. Constant flurries that blew everywhere. We used to walk across ponds and lakes that were frozen 2’ thick. I had a snowman in my yard for a month. Mind blowing.

[OKMet83]

This weekend will be nothing to write home about other than the cold which we'll we do see occasionally here in N.TX.. NO It's by no means 1983 or 89 as WXMAN57 stated and the air will be modified a bit thus it will not be as cold but still brutal and you will not want to be out for long periods that's for dang sure! What little precip model's are even showing truly might even evaporate before reaching the ground.... I still have my eyes on Days about 7-14.... I know operational runs might not be handling it well but it is something to certainly watch for a sleeper ICE/Snow storm! The overall upper level pattern looks good for Cold and possible a storm... So Stay tuned!

[JayDT]

Its so weird to me that it’s already cold right before a cold front gets here... Im sure this doesnt happen here too often lol

[Lagreeneyes03]

Larry Cosgrove on his FB page seems to think after this cold snap, a prolonged thaw comes, which would mean zero winter weather for us. He wrote "analogs and models show a typical to long Thaw. Not as pronounced as 1996, but it will be tough to reestablish cold air with the eastern US ridge in play."

Seems here the thoughts are otherwise. Why the big difference of opinion?

[Ntxw]

Larry Cosgrove on his FB page seems to think after this cold snap, a prolonged thaw comes, which would mean zero winter weather for us. He wrote "analogs and models show a typical to long Thaw. Not as pronounced as 1996, but it will be tough to reestablish cold air with the eastern US ridge in play."

Seems here the thoughts are otherwise. Why the big difference of opinion?

There is no model showing any torch. I mean you get a run or two of the GFS at 384hr of 60 here and there but thats 2 weeks out warmth that disappears next run. Eastern US ridge is good for us in the central conus. I'm not sure where his analogs are from or what guidance. Does he provide what model shows major thaw?

Larry C has been a good met for a long time and I have great respect for him.

[Brent]

Larry Cosgrove on his FB page seems to think after this cold snap, a prolonged thaw comes, which would mean zero winter weather for us. He wrote "analogs and models show a typical to long Thaw. Not as pronounced as 1996, but it will be tough to reestablish cold air with the eastern US ridge in play."

Seems here the thoughts are otherwise. Why the big difference of opinion?

There is no model showing any torch. I mean you get a run or two of the GFS at 384hr of 60 here and there but thats 2 weeks out warmth that disappears next run. Eastern US ridge is good for us in the central conus. I'm not sure where his analogs are from or what guidance. Does he provide what model shows major thaw?

Larry C has been a good met for a long time and I have great respect for him.

yeah I haven't seen any signs of a torch either... certainly not a prolonged torch nowhere around here

FWD did mentioning hitting 70 next weekend in the AFD this morning but I've seen zero evidence of that too, true may be warmer than this weekend but that's not saying much

and again I'll mention last Thursday the GFS had 70s for Dallas yesterday... was about 30 degrees off... and that was hardly fantasy land

[Ntxw]

The only thing I can see is if he is forecasting for the east coast. GEFS long long range shows ridging off the Atlantic that buds in to them. Meanwhile same time more arctic air pours into the middle of the country and western trough.





And that is assuming PNA goes negative, if not, then we get more of the same going on now

[Lagreeneyes03]

Larry Cosgrove on his FB page seems to think after this cold snap, a prolonged thaw comes, which would mean zero winter weather for us. He wrote "analogs and models show a typical to long Thaw. Not as pronounced as 1996, but it will be tough to reestablish cold air with the eastern US ridge in play."

Seems here the thoughts are otherwise. Why the big difference of opinion?

There is no model showing any torch. I mean you get a run or two of the GFS at 384hr of 60 here and there but thats 2 weeks out warmth that disappears next run. Eastern US ridge is good for us in the central conus. I'm not sure where his analogs are from or what guidance. Does he provide what model shows major thaw?

Larry C has been a good met for a long time and I have great respect for him.

He did not say specifically which ones, he mentioned the Euro and GGEM showing an Eastern seaboard storm around the 4th, and since Dec 23 he's been touting the "January Thaw" in his posts. Just mentions analogs and weekly climo forecasts.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS shows some freezing rain and sleet near SA Monday into Tuesday. Doesn't look like a significant event, however could cause issues on the roads.

Looks similar to 12z Euro now.

[Ntxw]

Also I would like to mention the term January thaw. I think it can be misnomer, it's not always the same as a torch. Late December to the first week or so of January is often climo for most sites as their coldest period. More years then not the coldest temperatures for most places occurs during this time. Naturally as climo warms, we are usually coming out of the "coldest" week or two of the winter thus the coin thaw. But some do use it interchangeably with torch which are not the same.

[JDawg512]

Since there's been talk about past events, I thought I'd post this clip. I was just a little kid then but still remember pretty clearly.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/4xy5psBbfNI[/youtube]

[Ntxw]

0z GFS shows some freezing rain and sleet near SA Monday into Tuesday. Doesn't look like a significant event, however could cause issues on the roads.

Looks similar to 12z Euro now.

CMC has an inkling of snow flurries or virga in Oklahoma as the ULL passes them. Too tiny to be of significance but maybe..just maybe it's lifting the air enough? I am curious to see what the mesoscale models do with it when it gets into range

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS shows some freezing rain and sleet near SA Monday into Tuesday. Doesn't look like a significant event, however could cause issues on the roads.

Looks similar to 12z Euro now.

CMC has an inkling of snow flurries or virga in Oklahoma as the ULL passes them. Too tiny to be of significance but maybe..just maybe it's lifting the air enough? I am curious to see what the mesoscale models do with it when it gets into range

I really hope the disturbance over performs the models again. Just thinking back a few weeks ago, no models showed Austin, College Station, and SA getting more than a trace of snow. All 3 cities ended up with over an inch, with College Station getting 5 inches.

[Ntxw]

He did not say specifically which ones, he mentioned the Euro and GGEM showing an Eastern seaboard storm around the 4th, and since Dec 23 he's been touting the "January Thaw" in his posts. Just mentions analogs and weekly climo forecasts.

I do see in your post he mentions 1996. That year had a big thaw, think it hit 90s in Dallas. Few weeks later hit single digits, then back to 90s. He could be following that year

[Ntxw]

There is a front moving through Central Oklahoma right now

[JayDT]

That’s a pretty good drop in temps even with cold air already in place

[Snowman67]

Is this the main cold front? Was it forecast to already be into central OK at this time?

[Ntxw]

It's the main wind switch so technically it's the front. As height rises it gradually gets colder. The freeze line should approach with that front generally speaking. It's really hard to discern the big temperature difference because it's already cold relatively speaking early on

Here is the 0z GFS forecast for 12z Sat, which is midnight tonight or roughly 45 mins from now



Here is the 0z NAM for 11pm or just now