Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Snowman67]

Thanks. Looks like the front is right on schedule, or perhaps slightly faster than what the 0Z GFS had forecast.

[Lagreeneyes03]

He did not say specifically which ones, he mentioned the Euro and GGEM showing an Eastern seaboard storm around the 4th, and since Dec 23 he's been touting the "January Thaw" in his posts. Just mentions analogs and weekly climo forecasts.

I do see in your post he mentions 1996. That year had a big thaw, think it hit 90s in Dallas. Few weeks later hit single digits, then back to 90s. He could be following that year

I vaguely remember that. I was in school, shorts at one part of the week and parkas the next.

[Brent]

Euro has 60s next Sunday

#heatwave

Also rain and a front so it wouldnt last

Not much else to report for DFW, dry and cold through Thursday then slowly moderating

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im going to need to bail on SE Tx snow after this event and start using my will power for some snow in CO . Annual trip coming last week of January.

Last year they had 90" in the month of January or something INSANE like that. They had to clear out a slot where the stop signs were becasue they were covered otherwise.

-20 just outside of Gunnison at noon in the valley driving to Crested Butte.
Sorry fellas, it's just business! I'll be back wishing for winter weather afterwards.

[Cpv17]

Im going to need to bail on SE Tx snow after this event and start using my will power for some snow in CO . Annual trip coming last week of January.

Last year they had 90" in the month of January or something INSANE like that. They had to clear out a slot where the stop signs were becasue they were covered otherwise.

-20 just outside of Gunnison at noon in the valley driving to Crested Butte.
Sorry fellas, it's just business! I'll be back wishing for winter weather afterwards.

I’m sure you’d rather see some snow there in Sugar Land vs Colorado though!

[Brent]

Im going to need to bail on SE Tx snow after this event and start using my will power for some snow in CO . Annual trip coming last week of January.

Last year they had 90" in the month of January or something INSANE like that. They had to clear out a slot where the stop signs were becasue they were covered otherwise.

-20 just outside of Gunnison at noon in the valley driving to Crested Butte.
Sorry fellas, it's just business! I'll be back wishing for winter weather afterwards.

I’m sure you’d rather see some snow there in Sugar Land vs Colorado though!

yeah I just don't think its the same somewhere else... cool I'm sure, but not the same...

feel free to correct me if I'm wrong though

[srainhoutx]

HGX wants us to really express as strongly possible that folks prepare for an extended cold period where temperatures may be in the upper teens to low/mid 20's for lows and possibly barely making it above freezing on Tuesday for highs with cloud cover from a disturbance crossing the area. Of particular concern are those folks living in their homes that have not been fully repaired from Harvey where insulation and drywall have yet to be replaced exposing water pipes as well as space heaters.

We are looking at an extended period where wind chill valves or feels like temperatures will be in the single digits and lower teens at least through Tuesday afternoon.

As far as any moisture is concerned, HGX has removed the mention of frozen precipitation for now, but there is still some concern that drizzle and light rain may fall behind the Arctic front Sunday night into Monday. The Tuesday disturbance doesn't appear to have enough moisture or saturation in the mid/upper levels to make it through the very dry lower levels. I did notice that some of the shorter range models are 'hinting' at sleet/snow possibilities across the Hill Country and possibly making into San Antonio and Austin, so we'll see if those trends continue today into tomorrow and mid day Monday where the even shorter range Rapid Refresh Models will be in range for any wintry mischief with the Tuesday disturbance. Today will be the best day to complete your preparations as I intend to do myself with the somewhat warmer temperatures (mid 50's to near 60F).

[Ntxw]

Temps fall today

[EnnisTx]

Happy New Years Eve everyone! Here's wishing for a winter weather surprise (Snow) and no freezing drizzle.

Party at my house......

[utpmg]

So, perfect timing. Camp Mabry (Austin) observations seem to be down for several hours now.

[gboudx]

Happy New Years Eve everyone! Here's wishing for a winter weather surprise (Snow) and no freezing drizzle.

Party at my house......

Don't you mean Happy New Years Eve Eve? I don't blame you for wanting to start partying early though.

[Portastorm]

HGX wants us to really express as strongly possible that folks prepare for an extended cold period where temperatures may be in the upper teens to low/mid 20's for lows and possibly barely making it above freezing on Tuesday for highs with cloud cover from a disturbance crossing the area. Of particular concern are those folks living in their homes that have not been fully repaired from Harvey where insulation and drywall have yet to be replaced exposing water pipes as well as space heaters.

We are looking at an extended period where wind chill valves or feels like temperatures will be in the single digits and lower teens at least through Tuesday afternoon.

As far as any moisture is concerned, HGX has removed the mention of frozen precipitation for now, but there is still some concern that drizzle and light rain may fall behind the Arctic front Sunday night into Monday. The Tuesday disturbance doesn't appear to have enough moisture or saturation in the mid/upper levels to make it through the very dry lower levels. I did notice that some of the shorter range models are 'hinting' at sleet/snow possibilities across the Hill Country and possibly making into San Antonio and Austin, so we'll see if those trends continue today into tomorrow and mid day Monday where the even shorter range Rapid Refresh Models will be in range for any wintry mischief with the Tuesday disturbance. Today will be the best day to complete your preparations as I intend to do myself with the somewhat warmer temperatures (mid 50's to near 60F).

Thank you for mentioning this srain. There are a lot of folks living in their damaged homes in areas impacted by Harvey and this Arctic airmass means business in terms of presenting the kind of cold which will threaten health and safety. Here in south central Texas our NWS folks have cautioned that we'll have a period of at least 36 consecutive hours below freezing with longer amounts in the Hill Country. There also will be two hard freezes Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The cold is the main story here.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Already 28-29 here with a windchill of 15.

[Portastorm]

So, perfect timing. Camp Mabry (Austin) observations seem to be down for several hours now.

Yeah, the NWS folks noticed it last night and have people working on it. No restoration time known yet though. Hopefully it's fixed before tomorrow.

[gboudx]

Hot off the press from jeff:

Arctic cold front to bring very cold temperatures and wind chills to the area for the next several days

Preparations for a Hard Freeze should be completed today or early Sunday.

Arctic front is currently surging through KS and will enter N TX later today and push off the upper TX coast on Sunday afternoon/evening. Ahead of the front warm air advection has increased temperatures and dewpoints to levels not experienced in over a week over the area. Nearshore waters have greatly cooled over the last week and as warmer 60 degree dewpoints move over the cooler nearshore waters sea fog is developing and spreading into the coastal locations. Additional a weak coastal low is currently lifting across the coastal waters resulting in spotty light rain showers. Drizzle, fog, and light rain will continue until the arctic front passes the area on Sunday.

Post frontal air mass looks to dry quicker than forecast a few days ago which will limit any potential for surface temperatures to fall below freezing while drizzle continues to fall. Hence not expecting any freezing drizzle on NYE night into NYD. Any freezing drizzle looks to remain west of the area toward the I-35 corridor.

Main impact of this arctic front will be wind chills and temperatures.

Temperatures will fall into the 30’s on NYE evening and likely near freezing N of HWY 105 by midnight and by NYD morning N of I-10. Winds of 20-30mph will accompany this cold air mass driving wind chills into the 10’s…possibly 1’s N of HWY 105. Highs on NYD will likely not make 40 at most locations and N of HWY 105 highs may only rise a few degrees above freezing. Hard freeze (2 hours at or below 25 degrees) looks likely for much of the area N of I-10 on Tuesday morning and possibly the entire area (except the immediate beaches) Wednesday morning. Could see low temperatures into the 10’s both Tues/Wed mornings N of HWY 105.

A wind chill advisory and hard freeze warning will likely be required for Monday and Tuesday.

Preparations:

Preparations for a damaging freeze should be completed today or early Sunday before the arrival of the arctic front.

1) Cover and protect any outside faucet connectors and any exposed pipes including sprinkler systems and their backflow preventer portion
2) Tender tropical vegetation will need to be covered and protected and ensure proper measures to keep coverings secured in strong winds.
3) Pets and livestock should be prepared for an extended period of sub-freezing temperatures. Some livestock water supply sources may freeze.
4) Ensure quality heating of homes especially those damaged by Hurricane Harvey which may still lack insulation or persons currently residing in temporary housing which may not have standard heating conditions.

Forecast Low Temperatures Monday AM:

N of HWY 105: 27-24 (wind chills: 9-13)
N of I-10: 27-30 (wind chills: 12-17)
N of coast: 33-36 (wind chills: 18-22)

Forecast Low Temperatures Tuesday AM:

N of HWY 105: 18-22
N of US 59: 20-25
N of coast: 24-29
Coast: 31-34

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile the GEFS continues the drum on another Arctic outbreak into the nation's midsection Jan 10-15th after a very brief reprieve Jan 8th-10th. GFS has it, Euro going to it, EPS trending. SOI is not as negative and trade burst in the tropical Pacific. That will lower the PNA and focus the drainage into the west and plains with a trough to the southwest and s-central US.



I'm fairly confident in saying we have found the winter's pattern. -EPO dominant, and warmth is always 7-14 days out like in 2013/2014

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed Ntxw. I think we are locked onto this pattern for quite awhile. I touched on this isimilar topic in my most recent post in the Florida Weather thread as well.

[bubba hotep]

Meanwhile the GEFS continues the drum on another Arctic outbreak into the nation's midsection Jan 10-15th after a very brief reprieve Jan 8th-10th. GFS has it, Euro going to it, EPS trending. SOI is not as negative and trade burst in the tropical Pacific. That will lower the PNA and focus the drainage into the west and plains with a trough to the southwest and s-central US.

http://i67.tinypic.com/fa3lvs.png

I'm fairly confident in saying we have found the winter's pattern. -EPO dominant, and warmth is always 7-14 days out like in 2013/2014

Matches up with the 00z Euro EPS for the same time range. It EPS does show a brief warm up (mostly 50s for DFW) driven by systems digging into the SW, before trending colder heading towards mid-month.

[Ntxw]

Also mentioned before worth saying again. The pattern we have been in and in right now at 500mb is not all that favorable for the kind of cold outbreak we are seeing. There is no ballooning 500mb ridge in Alaska nor is the NAO/AO negative. But we do have the true cold air (or what there is) sitting in Canada, all it took was a small opening of the window and it pours with help from the EPO. We've had this pattern several times the past 2 winters but didn't deliver because the cold was sitting in Asia. Mid month of January looks better for discharge. While we "thaw" out near Jan 8-10th, air from north east Asia, on the guidance, looks like it's moving over the pole again.

[Snowman67]

IS the cold front moving slowly right now, or is it expected to slow as it nears SE Texas? I see that it is approaching the DFW area, but not expected to reach SE Texas until tomorrow morning. That would be about 250 miles in 24hrs. Is it only moving around 10mph?