Texas Winter 2017-2018

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northjaxpro
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4181 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:32 am

Ntxw wrote:Also mentioned before worth saying again. The pattern we have been in and in right now at 500mb is not all that favorable for the kind of cold outbreak we are seeing. There is no ballooning 500mb ridge in Alaska nor is the NAO/AO negative. But we do have the true cold air (or what there is) sitting in Canada, all it took was a small opening of the window and it pours with help from the EPO. We've had this pattern several times the past 2 winters but didn't deliver because the cold was sitting in Asia. Mid month of January looks better for discharge. While we "thaw" out near Jan 8-10th, air from north east Asia, on the guidance, looks like it's moving over the pole again.


Excellent analysis Ntxw!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4182 Postby ronyan » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:42 am

Pressure is up to about 1043mb at Minot AFB. To the NW in Canada it climbs towards 1048mb. Appears to be a pretty good initialization by the 12z GFS. The highest pressure should occur around 18z tomorrow near Sidney, MT.
Last edited by ronyan on Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4183 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:47 am

12z GFS is looking somewhat interesting in the long range.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4184 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:53 am

Snowman67 wrote:IS the cold front moving slowly right now, or is it expected to slow as it nears SE Texas? I see that it is approaching the DFW area, but not expected to reach SE Texas until tomorrow morning. That would be about 250 miles in 24hrs. Is it only moving around 10mph?


The front/shift is actually somewhere in central Texas. You can see it on the wind shift. Height rises (850mb front) are happening in North Texas where winds are shifting from NE to due N and NW gusting

SPC mesoanalysis

Image

And here is the 12z GFS for Noon today

Image

behind the height rises

GFS has OKC 23-25 Noon, they are currently sitting at 20F

Has Wichita Falls around 29 and rises to freezing currently 27F.

As I was saying before we're not getting the blasting huge temperature drops because it was already colder before. It would be more dramatic if we were in the 60s and 70s ahead of it and fall into the 30s and 20s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4185 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:04 pm

GFS MOS is now 16F and 17F for DFW Mon-Tues mornings. NAM MOS is 14F and 12F

Tomorrow will be curious between the operational GFS and NAM. 36-38F while the NAM is closer to 30 and upper 20s I-30 north
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4186 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:12 pm

gboudx wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Happy New Years Eve everyone! Here's wishing for a winter weather surprise (Snow) and no freezing drizzle.

Party at my house......

:Partytime: :woo: :Partytime: :woo: :bd: :bd: :bd: :tailgate:


Don't you mean Happy New Years Eve Eve? :) I don't blame you for wanting to start partying early though.


Ah.. yes that would be tomorrow. Guess I'm suffering from no snow delirium..... :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4187 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:23 pm

Cpv17 wrote:12z GFS is looking somewhat interesting in the long range.


No! I totally disapprove of anymore snow in South Texas before we get some in North Texas..... :shoot: :hmm: :yesno:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4188 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:GFS MOS is now 16F and 17F for DFW Mon-Tues mornings. NAM MOS is 14F and 12F

Tomorrow will be curious between the operational GFS and NAM. 36-38F while the NAM is closer to 30 and upper 20s I-30 north


NAM MOS for IAH Tuesday morning is 19F with a dewpoint of 9.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4189 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:28 pm

Well good, the temp should steadily drop the remainder of the day and then below freezing for a while. Gonna feel like winter!!!! Now off to the theater for The Last Jedi. Finally have some time to take my daughter to go see it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4190 Postby orangeblood » Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:42 pm

12Z GFS ENS looking really active for the Jan 10-15 time frame...numerous members showing major Southern plains winter storms
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4191 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:54 pm

Is it still looking like it could be freezing drizzle/icy tomorrow? I was going to go to Choctaw from DFW area for NYE, but not going to risk it if there's going to be slick bridges, etc.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4192 Postby TexasSam » Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:03 pm

I found this amazing video on Youtube : https://youtu.be/BMVoiW_sghc from the Houston Winter of 1989.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4193 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:24 pm

Starting to snow here. Big flakes
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4194 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:55 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Starting to snow here. Big flakes


Dont see it on the radar. Strange. Low level convergence?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4195 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:56 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Starting to snow here. Big flakes


Nothing here but just extremely :cold: just north of Wichita Falls but I'm keeping an eye out!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4196 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:01 pm

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=15#

I see it here. That dot near Wichita Falls.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4197 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:09 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Is it still looking like it could be freezing drizzle/icy tomorrow? I was going to go to Choctaw from DFW area for NYE, but not going to risk it if there's going to be slick bridges, etc.


There could be light icing north of DFW. Very light though but with temps very cold I would be very careful
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4198 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:09 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#

I see it here. That dot near Wichita Falls.


Yep, it snows in Wichita Falls every other day this winter!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4199 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:33 pm

18z NAM shows sleet in Del Rio and San Antonio on Monday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4200 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:38 pm

Cold air finally sloshing into my area, IMBY went from 44 to 39 in the last 45 min.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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