Texas Winter 2017-2018

[srainhoutx]

Arctic Boundary has crossed the Red River and is pushing S toward the I-20 Corridor of N Central Texas at this hour. Sheppard AFB in Wichita Falls now reporting Freezing Drizzle. FWD will be issuing Winter Weather Advisories shortly for the NW and N Central Counties excluding Tarrant and Dallas Counties at this time. They are mentioning that the WWA will likely be extended S and E as the evening wears on and freezing temperatures expand across North Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

Afternoon AFD from EWX on the risk of frozen precip on Monday:

The dense arctic airmass will continue to settle in over the region
New Years Day as cold air advection continues courtesy of a strong
1050mb high over the Central Plains. Models have interestingly
trended slightly wetter across the southwest half of the CWA New
Years Day, keying in on mid level impulse in the northwest flow
aloft. Recent runs of the GFS and Texas Tech 4KM WRF have been
generating a healthy amount of QPF New Years day south of I-10 and
west of I-37, with higher amounts near the Rio Grande. There is a
lesser, but clear signal with the ECMWF and Canadian models as well.
Forecast soundings indicate this would fall as a mixture of rain
and/or sleet pellets. About 1/3rd of the GEFS plume members indicate
the potential for sleet, There is a also a potential for some minor
accumulations of freezing rain and sleet New Years Day morning in
this area, possibly continuing into the afternoon for locations
across the western Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau that
will remain freezing. We will highlight this potential further in the
ongoing SPS.

[srainhoutx]

18z NAM shows sleet in Del Rio and San Antonio on Monday.

Watching that upper air disturbance near/over the Baja heading generally East toward Mexico/Texas over the next 24 to 36 hours. That looks to be the lifting mechanism for the wintry mix the NAM is sniffing out. Water Vapor imagery shows the developing shortwave expected Tuesday dropping SSE over top of the Alaska Ridge into Yukon and NW Territories of NW Canada.

[Texas Snowman]

WWA along the Red River now in southern Oklahoma and out towards Wichita Falls.

-----

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
213 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017

...Freezing drizzle into the evening and overnight...

.Patches of freezing drizzle, enough to cause minor accumulations of ice on elevated surfaces and slick and hazardous roads. Bouts of freezing drizzle will remain possible into the evening and overnight across southern Oklahoma into north Texas.

OKZ037-044>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-311200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0008.171230T2013Z-171231T1200Z/
Tillman-Cotton-Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-

Including the cities of Frederick, Walters, Temple, Waurika, Ringling, Ryan, Ardmore, Tishomingo, Atoka, Marietta, Thackerville, Madill, Kingston, Durant, Quanah, Crowell, Vernon, Sheppard AFB, Wichita Falls, Munday, Knox City, Seymour, Archer City, Holliday, Lakeside City, Scotland, and Henrietta

213 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Patchy Freezing Drizzle

* WHERE...Portions of southeast, southern and southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous driving conditions, with slick roads, bridges, and overpasses are likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for Freezing Drizzle means that periods of freezing drizzle will result in slick and hazardous travel conditions. Be prepared for slippery roads, slow down and use caution while driving.

$$

Kurtz

[missygirl810]

WWA along the Red River now in southern Oklahoma and out towards Wichita Falls.

-----

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
213 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017

...Freezing drizzle into the evening and overnight...

.Patches of freezing drizzle, enough to cause minor accumulations of ice on elevated surfaces and slick and hazardous roads. Bouts of freezing drizzle will remain possible into the evening and overnight across southern Oklahoma into north Texas.

OKZ037-044>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-311200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0008.171230T2013Z-171231T1200Z/
Tillman-Cotton-Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-

Including the cities of Frederick, Walters, Temple, Waurika, Ringling, Ryan, Ardmore, Tishomingo, Atoka, Marietta, Thackerville, Madill, Kingston, Durant, Quanah, Crowell, Vernon, Sheppard AFB, Wichita Falls, Munday, Knox City, Seymour, Archer City, Holliday, Lakeside City, Scotland, and Henrietta

213 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Patchy Freezing Drizzle

* WHERE...Portions of southeast, southern and southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous driving conditions, with slick roads, bridges, and overpasses are likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for Freezing Drizzle means that periods of freezing drizzle will result in slick and hazardous travel conditions. Be prepared for slippery roads, slow down and use caution while driving.

$$

Kurtz

Wonder if anything will be issued for N TX counties soon.

[South Texas Storms]

18z NAM shows sleet in Del Rio and San Antonio on Monday.

Watching that upper air disturbance near/over the Baja heading generally East toward Mexico/Texas over the next 24 to 36 hours. That looks to be the lifting mechanism for the wintry mix the NAM is sniffing out. Water Vapor imagery shows the developing shortwave expected Tuesday dropping SSE over top of the Alaska Ridge into Yukon and NW Territories of NW Canada.

I'm wondering if this is one of those disturbances that sneakily over performs. Interesting that some of the short range guidance is starting to trend towards more precip. Plenty of moisture on water vapor satellite over Baja heading east.

[hamburgerman7070]

Orangeblood, do you think we get more active by mid Jan in southern plains? Does the euro ens support it also? Haven't heard much about the euro today. BTW, I value your insights and have payed attention to you for a long time

[Brent]

Winter wx advisory for northern DFW

[Wntrwthrguy]

Any chance the disturbance provides precip for Austin/Georgetown Monday or is it going to stay hill country/west of San Antonio?

[missygirl810]

Winter wx advisory for northern DFW

Yep!!


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
333 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY...

.Occasional freezing drizzle will occur tonight through Sunday
morning. Accumulations will be very light, but may be sufficient
to produce slick and hazardous conditions on roadways across
parts of North Central Texas. The main concern will be on elevated
surfaces such as bridges and overpasses, though a few roads and
streets could be affected as well.


TXZ091>095-100>104-115>117-129-310545-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.171230T2200Z-171231T1800Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Eastland-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells,
Weatherford, Briar, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, and Gorman
333 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Occasional freezing drizzle is expected. Although
accumulations will be very light, this ice may result in slick
spots on area bridges and overpasses, and perhaps some surface
streets and other surfaces.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas generally
along and north of an Eastland to Weatherford to Denton to Paris
line.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any ice that forms may be patchy, and
encountered unexpectedly. Exercise special caution when driving
over bridges or overpasses, since these surfaces cool faster
than surface roads and can accumulate more ice. Drier air will
begin working into North Texas later Sunday into Sunday night,
bringing an end to the drizzle and possibly helping to
evaporate some of the ice that may form.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing drizzle will
cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow
down and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for
Texas can be found at drivetexas.org.

[lrak]

18z NAM shows sleet in Del Rio and San Antonio on Monday.

Watching that upper air disturbance near/over the Baja heading generally East toward Mexico/Texas over the next 24 to 36 hours. That looks to be the lifting mechanism for the wintry mix the NAM is sniffing out. Water Vapor imagery shows the developing shortwave expected Tuesday dropping SSE over top of the Alaska Ridge into Yukon and NW Territories of NW Canada.

I'm wondering if this is one of those disturbances that sneakily over performs. Interesting that some of the short range guidance is starting to trend towards more precip. Plenty of moisture on water vapor satellite over Baja heading east.

Do you think we may see some ice pellets or freezing drizzle?

The over running we've been experiencing the past several days was suppose to end yesterday. We still have fog and drizzle....yuck

Thanks!

[bubba hotep]

[Yukon Cornelius]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#

I see it here. That dot near Wichita Falls.

Yep, it snows in Wichita Falls every other day this winter!

WF and the surrounding area has been extremely blessed so far this winter. We’ve had flurries or freezing drizzle everyday for the last week.

[South Texas Storms]

Watching that upper air disturbance near/over the Baja heading generally East toward Mexico/Texas over the next 24 to 36 hours. That looks to be the lifting mechanism for the wintry mix the NAM is sniffing out. Water Vapor imagery shows the developing shortwave expected Tuesday dropping SSE over top of the Alaska Ridge into Yukon and NW Territories of NW Canada.

I'm wondering if this is one of those disturbances that sneakily over performs. Interesting that some of the short range guidance is starting to trend towards more precip. Plenty of moisture on water vapor satellite over Baja heading east.

Do you think we may see some ice pellets or freezing drizzle?

The over running we've been experiencing the past several days was suppose to end yesterday. We still have fog and drizzle....yuck

Thanks!

Yeah I wouldn't rule out some light frozen precip as far south as Corpus and as far north as Austin on Monday as the disturbance moves across the region. Greatest chance looks to be from Del Rio to SA.

[Portastorm]

Any chance the disturbance provides precip for Austin/Georgetown Monday or is it going to stay hill country/west of San Antonio?

As of now, it looks like any frozen precip will remain west-through-south of the Austin metro area on Monday. But stay tuned as you never know how these things will develop. As South Texas Storms mentioned above, the disturbance could end up more vigorous and impact a larger area. On the other hand, the models may be overdoing it and no precip will end up reaching the ground due to how dry the airmass is projected to be. So, chances are very slim but cannot be ruled out entirely.

[srainhoutx]

Any chance the disturbance provides precip for Austin/Georgetown Monday or is it going to stay hill country/west of San Antonio?

As of now, it looks like any frozen precip will remain west-through-south of the Austin metro area on Monday. But stay tuned as you never know how these things will develop. As South Texas Storms mentioned above, the disturbance could end up more vigorous and impact a larger area. On the other hand, the models may be overdoing it and no precip will end up reaching the ground due to how dry the airmass is projected to be. So, chances are very slim but cannot be ruled out entirely.

Even HGX threw a bone to those near Matagorda and Jackson Counties after seeing the moisture increasing Monday. You never know with a pesky upper air disturbance crossing Mexico with embedded vort max energy as well as some unforeseen features that pop up in mesoscale range (6 to 8 hours).

[Ralph's Weather]

Freezing line pusing into Tarrant and Denton counties. Temps in the cold air are running a good 5 degrees colder than models show at this time. Even running colder than the HRRR.

[Snowman67]

Any chance the disturbance provides precip for Austin/Georgetown Monday or is it going to stay hill country/west of San Antonio?

As of now, it looks like any frozen precip will remain west-through-south of the Austin metro area on Monday. But stay tuned as you never know how these things will develop. As South Texas Storms mentioned above, the disturbance could end up more vigorous and impact a larger area. On the other hand, the models may be overdoing it and no precip will end up reaching the ground due to how dry the airmass is projected to be. So, chances are very slim but cannot be ruled out entirely.

Even HGX threw a bone to those near Matagorda and Jackson Counties after seeing the moisture increasing Monday. You never know with a pesky upper air disturbance crossing Mexico with embedded vort max energy as well as some unforeseen features that pop up in mesoscale range (6 to 8 hours).

And we all know that if lift and moisture do occur, the exact areas where any precipitation may fall, will probably not be nailed down until very close to the event. This was the case with the early December south and southeast Texas snow.

[Rgv20]

18z NAM shows sleet in Del Rio and San Antonio on Monday.

Can we expand that to Deep South Texas??

[Cpv17]

Pattern is still there on the 18z GFS in the 10-15 range.