Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Portastorm]

Got down to 23 here this morning. It's a balmy 31 at 4pm. Been slow dripping my outdoor faucets since 1am last night, just in case.

Yeah, it never rose above 31 degrees at my house. I'm not dripping my faucets but I did cover them all this past weekend with the bib covers. Lows the next two nights/early mornings for us will be 20-22. Bbbbrrrr!!

[Ralph's Weather]

The shortwave tomorrow evening will bring decent moisture between 800 and 500mb to Northeast Texas, but there is a major dry layer between 900 and 800mb. So prob some clouds, but any snow will likely evaporate before reaching the ground.

[weatherdude1108]

Got down to 23 here this morning. It's a balmy 31 at 4pm. Been slow dripping my outdoor faucets since 1am last night, just in case.

Yeah, it never rose above 31 degrees at my house. I'm not dripping my faucets but I did cover them all this past weekend with the bib covers. Lows the next two nights/early mornings for us will be 20-22. Bbbbrrrr!!

I have used bibs, but my faucet still froze with a cover and wrapped in towels when it got to teens. So although wasteful, dripping seems to work.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Is there still talk of more cold and possible winter mischief around 10-15 days from now?

[Ntxw]

Is there still talk of more cold and possible winter mischief around 10-15 days from now?

Largely, yes. The signal for cold is not as strong as what we saw this week but from the 10th to 15th models to varying degree has shown a cold intrusion along with a storm, or storms.

[Ntxw]

FWIW CFSv2 has changed it's tune, relatively speaking, and continues the same pattern through February with EPO ridging (NE Pac) and far NW Pacific trough. It may end up like 2013/2014 where the December tendencies just rolls forward as the winter pattern. Rinse, repeat

[hamburgerman7070]

FWIW CFSv2 has changed it's tune, relatively speaking, and continues the same pattern through February with EPO ridging (NE Pac) and far NW Pacific trough. It may end up like 2013/2014 where the December tendencies just rolls forward as the winter pattern. Rinse, repeat

Ntxw, do you think the euro is too aggressive with a 1051mb high day 9? That's really strong. I think we need a shakeup with our current pattern as of late to perhaps increase our opportunity for winter storms

[Ntxw]

FWIW CFSv2 has changed it's tune, relatively speaking, and continues the same pattern through February with EPO ridging (NE Pac) and far NW Pacific trough. It may end up like 2013/2014 where the December tendencies just rolls forward as the winter pattern. Rinse, repeat

Ntxw, do you think the euro is too aggressive with a 1051mb high day 9? That's really strong. I think we need a shakeup with our current pattern as of late to perhaps increase our opportunity for winter storms

Not sure about the Euro, it's long range.

Daily SOI is back to decent positive which tells us the Nina may try to take over some. Maybe break down the +PNA slowly. The difference that is saving from a Nina torch is the NPac blocking. East based Ninas is just a different animal like in 2013 and 1970s

[hamburgerman7070]

FWIW CFSv2 has changed it's tune, relatively speaking, and continues the same pattern through February with EPO ridging (NE Pac) and far NW Pacific trough. It may end up like 2013/2014 where the December tendencies just rolls forward as the winter pattern. Rinse, repeat

Ntxw, do you think the euro is too aggressive with a 1051mb high day 9? That's really strong. I think we need a shakeup with our current pattern as of late to perhaps increase our opportunity for winter storms

Not sure about the Euro, it's long range.

Daily SOI is back to decent positive which tells us the Nina may try to take over some. Maybe break down the +PNA slowly. The difference that is saving from a Nina torch is the NPac blocking. East based Ninas is just a different animal like in 2013 and 1970s

Ntwx, imo its nothing like 2013-14. Maybe somewhat. Y'all haven't seen a winter storm and back then at this time y'all had two already. Niña is east based right now. Do you think the qbo has helped any in our favor? I haven't seen the nao negative much at all or even the ao. Its been dry when we have had cold enough air. I know there are alot of moving parts and conflicting information

[Ntxw]

I haven't seen the QBO->strat connection this year, we've not had a true SSW.

NAM and HRRR hinting at some reflectivity in the hill country and some in central Texas with the s/w passage. Can it snow for a third time this winter in Austin?

[stormlover2013]

Rgem still showing snow in se tx

[Rgv20]

:uarrow: I haven't seen the QBO->strat connection this year, we've not had a true SSW.

NAM and HRRR hinting at some reflectivity in the hill country and some in central Texas with the s/w passage. Can it snow for a third time this winter in Austin?

It looks like the NAM wants to hold some moisture for Tuesday, the simulated radar is showing some faint feedback.

Did not get any sleet today with the light rain during mid morning to around mid afternoon, my temperature sensor was reading 34-33 during the light rain event.

[MississippiWx]

:uarrow: I haven't seen the QBO->strat connection this year, we've not had a true SSW.

NAM and HRRR hinting at some reflectivity in the hill country and some in central Texas with the s/w passage. Can it snow for a third time this winter in Austin?

Yeah, the GFS just trended a little more towards what the CMC has been showing. It throws a little more moisture onto the coast of Southeast Texas. The difference is with the shortwave. The 0z GFS digs the shortwave farther south and west into Texas and draws in more Gulf moisture.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc still on board

[missygirl810]

Thinking N and NE TX may just be out of the running for a good snow this year lol.

[Cpv17]

GFS and Euro are now both in agreement on a 1050mb+ high building in over the northern plains for next week sending down another significant blast of cold air. Now we need a storm system with it.

[Brent]

GFS some brief ice around day 12 or so

First cold snap is transient in a week on the GFS with a warmup in between

[Cpv17]

GFS some brief ice around day 12 or so

First cold snap is transient in a week on the GFS with a warmup in between

Yeah it follows the trend of all the other cold blasts this winter and goes mainly east of us.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Can we hit single digits tonight? We were 1 degrees off last night. It’s currently 15 with clear skies. The forecasted low is 10. It’s gonna be close!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can we hit single digits tonight? We were 1 degrees off last night. It’s currently 15 with clear skies. The forecasted low is 10. It’s gonna be close!

Your dewpoint is likely super low. Lower than last night, if youre at 15 now, i think you will.