Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Texas Snowman]

I believe that was the night it snowed several inches in Shreveport at the Independence Bowl (A&M played in that one).

[TheProfessor]

Brent would love the 12z Euro if he'd still be in Chicago when that storm happened.

[orangeblood]

I'll take the Canadian at 500mb and trend wetter at the surface through the week!

First analog that came to mind, when looking at projected 500mb pattern for next weekend, was New Years Eve 2000!!

Are you referring to the 2000 Ice Storm ? I believe we had two events that last week of Dec one that brought 1-4 inches of Snow and just prior to it the Ice Storm.. I could be wrong on my dates but I'll look it up shortly

no, the Southern Oklahoma/Northeast Texas snowstorm

[Ntxw]

NAM trends. Still a long way to go

[Brent]

Brent would love the 12z Euro if he'd still be in Chicago when that storm happened.

Yep i see that i leave Saturday afternoon that much snow might be an airport problem lol

11 inches downtown lol

[orangeblood]

NAM trends. Still a long way to go

Yep, just a 150-200 miles difference in that 500mb trajectory could make all the difference

[bubba hotep]

The 12z GEFS has WCAN reloading by the end of the run.

[orangeblood]

The 12z GEFS has WCAN reloading by the end of the run.

any sort of big warmup looks extremely short-lived

[Ntxw]

The 12z GEFS has WCAN reloading by the end of the run.

Aleutian ridge usually loads Western Canada. Still nothing that says torch, sure we get above normal days maybe even a 70 but it's being broken up by sneaky cold.

And we know torch around here, it's the opposite. A day or two of cold followed by long streaks of warmth.

February has a tendency to mimic December

[TeamPlayersBlue]

MJO is key here. Its rolling through 2 and 3, not a favorable phase for us. After that, i think we get back to a more favorable pattern.

[Texas Snowman]

Showers much of the afternoon. Then a little lightning, thunder, and a downpour of rain.

I like it!

[wxman57]

I still think that there is only the very slimmest of chances of any brief snow flurries in NE TX near the Red River after Thursday's front. Euro ensembles still indicate a break in the fronts following Thursday's through at least the 23rd. Nothing real warm, temperatures just a little above normal. Maybe highs in the low to mid 70s vs. the normal high (in Houston) of around 63. Looks like no biking next weekend, but the weekend after is looking good. Got in 20 miles today. Was a bit hot for me, though, with temps in the upper 60s.

[Texas Snowman]

I fear Wxman57 is slipping back towards his alter ego (Heat Miser).

The one who trusts medium and long range model forecasts when they predict warmth.

And the same one who doesn’t trust medium and long range model forecasts when they predict cold and snow.

[Ntxw]

Already some big differences with the 0z NAM. I don't know if this will yield a winter storm for us or not, but it is making attempts to phase. If that happens, it could keep trending south and a much more significant event overall





Point is, we are nowhere near the settled point of late week system. Probably still looking at some shifts to happen

[Ntxw]

I fear Wxman57 is slipping back towards his alter ego (Heat Miser).

The one who trusts medium and long range model forecasts when they predict warmth.

And the same one who doesn’t trust medium and long range model forecasts when they predict cold and snow.

DNA . He's a good sport though.

Problem is, if you're taking the GEFS, you're looking at cold down the plains this weekend (medium range). Passing warmup before another plunge down the plains (long range).





I mean I guess you can say it can't be frigid all the time in winter in Texas and be right most of the time. Sneaky cold keeps popping up once inside 7 day range

[downsouthman1]

Nice storms for Houston now. We have punch in the atmosphere. Just need conditions to be right again.

[downsouthman1]

I fear Wxman57 is slipping back towards his alter ego (Heat Miser).

The one who trusts medium and long range model forecasts when they predict warmth.

And the same one who doesn’t trust medium and long range model forecasts when they predict cold and snow.

DNA . He's a good sport though.

Problem is, if you're taking the GEFS, you're looking at cold down the plains this weekend (medium range). Passing warmup before another plunge down the plains (long range).





I mean I guess you can say it can't be frigid all the time in winter in Texas and be right most of the time. Sneaky cold keeps popping up once inside 7 day range

Your 2nd pic shows the cold air further west.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian has a winter storm across north TX early next week.

GFS actually looks pretty similar.

[orangeblood]

0z Canadian has a winter storm across north TX early next week.

GFS actually looks pretty similar.

Very similar to the Analog I mentioned earlier today...New Years Eve 2000. GFS coming around to it as well

[Ntxw]

0z Canadian has a winter storm across north TX early next week.

GFS actually looks pretty similar.

Looks like some STJ and cold funneled by the parent HP as the air is settled in from the weekend.