#4919 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:54 pm
EWX hinting had a pattern change next week.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 082128
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
328 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...
No major weather highlights in the short term as near to slightly
above normal temperatures occur today and Tuesday under clear skies.
Latest water vapor and RAP analysis indicate south-central Texas is
on the back side of a departing shortwave trough now over the Gulf of
Mexico with upstream shortwave ridging occurring over the desert
Southwest. The deeper north flow today will relax overnight with
surface winds shifting to the east and then the south by tomorrow as
the in situ airmass modifies. Despite the gusty winds today,
temperatures have reached into the mid 60s to low 70s across the
region. Given the lighter flow and further airmass modification with
warmer H925 temperatures tomorrow, surface temperatures should be
similar to 1-2F degrees warmer. PWATs will remain below 0.5" through
Tuesday with clear skies persisting.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Main highlight during this period will be a strong cold front passage
Thursday morning that will bring only limited rain chances to far
east Coastal Plains locations. Gusty north winds will occur behind
the front Thursday and a series of freezing low temperatures are
expected late week and into the weekend.
One last warm day will occur Wednesday as above normal temperatures
of +5F to +8F degrees occur as H5 flow becomes southwesterly.
Moisture will attempt to return to the region with surface dewpoints
increasing into the mid 50s and PWATs to 0.9-1.1" (75th percentile
for this time of year) across the Coastal Plains Wednesday to early
Thursday morning. There is still some question to overall moisture
depth and flux and any destabilization appears minimal at this time.
Despite the stronger mid-level forcing and surface convergence,
models suggest mid- and upper-levels will remain too dry for
widespread rain showers and a confined warm sector. The far eastern
Coastal Plains will likely have the only limited rain chance with the
passage of the front. Gusty north winds will occur behind the front
with temperatures falling back to near to slightly below normal
Thursday.
The driest air will arrive Friday and linger through the weekend with
dewpoints in the teens and 20s. A series of freezing low
temperature mornings will be likely as a strong surface high
pressure system develops over the Central Plains.
By early next week, long range models indicate a warm front shifting
north over the region that could bring increased rain chances in
conjunction with a brisk moving southern jet-stream branch Pacific
trough. Stay tuned as this system evolves and confidence narrows on a
particular solution.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
12z Euro has most of Texas and Louisiana below normal from day 3.5-10, a big departure from previous runs. Snow for Dallas area, northern LA and Arkansas along with ice during that run. Some cold rains in my neck of the woods but opens the door for some winter wx action close to home. Looks good to me, I'll take it!