Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Texas Snowman]

Well guys, the models have been tantalizing me with my dream storm. Unfortunately it might end up just west of me(Euro has Indy getting 20 inches of snow.) I'm hoping it's the typical Euro being too far west and that the GFS and NAM score a coup. Fingers crossed.

Snow, sleet or freezing rain, I’m scheduled to be in Indy Wednesday night through Sunday morning. I’m preparing to get stuck at the airport.

[TheProfessor]

Well guys, the models have been tantalizing me with my dream storm. Unfortunately it might end up just west of me(Euro has Indy getting 20 inches of snow.) I'm hoping it's the typical Euro being too far west and that the GFS and NAM score a coup. Fingers crossed.

Snow, sleet or freezing rain, I’m scheduled to be in Indy Wednesday night through Sunday morning. I’m preparing to get stuck at the airport.

You might very well be in the jackpot! If the Euro is right I'lll be pretty jealous lol. WPC is splitting the difference right now, which would make me happy, but the ice would be nightmarish.

[Ralph's Weather]

Some rain for E TX on Thursday, hopefully it trends west a bit. An outside chance of backside flurries over E TX Thu night. After that cold and waiting on the early next week storm.

[Portastorm]

Interesting to see the last few GFS runs joining the Canadian in showing some frozen precip near the Austin area early next week. GFS seems to be bringing some upper level energy across the middle part of the state from the west at that time. Seems like it'll be much too dry for anything but who knows.

[stormlover2013]

yeah next week tues-wed could be interesting but we all know we won't know till monday of next week lol

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS run has everything shifted north for early next week. If you assume it is underestimating the surface cold there could be an extended period of light overrunning freezing rain for SE and E TX. It extends the threat into Wed and even Thu on this run also.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS run has everything shifted north for early next week. If you assume it is underestimating the surface cold there could be an extended period of light overrunning freezing rain for SE and E TX.

Canadian is not budging, still insisting on Big Texas winter storm early next week.

[orangeblood]

Interesting to see the last few GFS runs joining the Canadian in showing some frozen precip near the Austin area early next week. GFS seems to be bringing some upper level energy across the middle part of the state from the west at that time. Seems like it'll be much too dry for anything but who knows.

All about the Pacific system crashing into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday...if it is slower, like the Canadian, than the GFS is showing a winter storm seems likely - as the downstream Arctic HP is bringing in plenty of moisture from the Gulf that the new Arctic HP will have to work with. If it quicker into the Pacific NW than it might shut off the Gulf moisture too quickly. We need to that Pacific system to slow down and things should get interesting around here!

[Ntxw]

CMC has done a decent job at 500mb for our region thus far this winter. Only surface temps has a fairly cold bias

[Portastorm]

CMC has done a decent job at 500mb for our region thus far this winter. Only surface temps has a fairly cold bias

That has been my understanding as well. As wxman57 has so aptly pointed out, the CMC has been way off course about surface temperatures. But I've seen references from other Texas-based meteorologists who have said the Canadian has done a decent job on handling the upper level features lately.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS run has everything shifted north for early next week. If you assume it is underestimating the surface cold there could be an extended period of light overrunning freezing rain for SE and E TX.

Canadian is not budging, still insisting on Big Texas winter storm early next week.

With no support from the other models and no support from its ensemble mean I begrudgingly am discounting it for now. Every other model and even its ensembles are progressive with the trough. I could see a trend in the other models towards not quite as progressive though so maybe a small winter storm vs just light overrunning precip.

[PineyWoods]

12Z GFS run has everything shifted north for early next week. If you assume it is underestimating the surface cold there could be an extended period of light overrunning freezing rain for SE and E TX.

Canadian is not budging, still insisting on Big Texas winter storm early next week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_37.png

15" for southern Smith county! I'd just be happy with 1"

[stormlover2013]

I think the CMC has done pretty descent this year with winter weather.

[Ntxw]

CMC has done a decent job at 500mb for our region thus far this winter. Only surface temps has a fairly cold bias

That has been my understanding as well. As wxman57 has so aptly pointed out, the CMC has been way off course about surface temperatures. But I've seen references from other Texas-based meteorologists who have said the Canadian has done a decent job on handling the upper level features lately.

Upper levels the cmc hasn't played the wild swing games like the GFS and Euro showing fantasy snows and missing snows (early Dec). Its been overall (for the SO plains) pretty consistent at 500h. It will usually trend the right way medium range and stay through to it.

Its been a good tool to see which way the OP models might trend, tiebreaker

[hamburgerman7070]

CMC has done a decent job at 500mb for our region thus far this winter. Only surface temps has a fairly cold bias

That has been my understanding as well. As wxman57 has so aptly pointed out, the CMC has been way off course about surface temperatures. But I've seen references from other Texas-based meteorologists who have said the Canadian has done a decent job on handling the upper level features lately.

Upper levels the cmc hasn't played the wild swing games like the GFS and Euro showing fantasy snows and missing snows (early Dec). Its been overall (for the SO plains) pretty consistent at 500h. It will usually trend the right way medium range and stay through to it.

Its been a good tool to see which way the OP models might trend, tiebreaker

Ntxw, do you think we will have our opportunity for a further west trough? That could be the game changer imo

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS ENS much wetter than operational for next week, trending more towards Canadian

[Ntxw]

That has been my understanding as well. As wxman57 has so aptly pointed out, the CMC has been way off course about surface temperatures. But I've seen references from other Texas-based meteorologists who have said the Canadian has done a decent job on handling the upper level features lately.

Upper levels the cmc hasn't played the wild swing games like the GFS and Euro showing fantasy snows and missing snows (early Dec). Its been overall (for the SO plains) pretty consistent at 500h. It will usually trend the right way medium range and stay through to it.

Its been a good tool to see which way the OP models might trend, tiebreaker

Ntxw, do you think we will have our opportunity for a further west trough? That could be the game changer imo

Cpc is forecasting -PNA and MJO sort of supports going forward. Still in mode of will believe it when see it negative

[wxman57]

Snow, sleet or freezing rain, I’m scheduled to be in Indy Wednesday night through Sunday morning. I’m preparing to get stuck at the airport.

I don't see any travel issues either day. Any snow/sleet/ZR would occur Friday and Friday night. Things should have settled down at the airport by then.

[wxman57]

The Canadian model sure likes to forecast snow in Texas. Over 15 inches next Tuesday! Seems a little much...

[bubba hotep]

12Z GFS ENS much wetter than operational for next week, trending more towards Canadian

12z GEFS was certainly a step in the right direction for the northeastern 1/4 of Texas, generally east of I35 and north of 190.