Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

Cpv17 is right that accompanying the chance of wintry precip Monday/Tuesday will be another 1050mb+ Arctic high! I think the GFS forecast low of 26F is laughable next week . Heck it's 26 now at the airport! Probably dip into the teens again with that kind of pattern. If ripe and right, comparable temperatures to the days around New Year's not off the table.. and we're not talking about a week+ out.

[Ralph's Weather]

I had 0 precip of any kind yesterday. Areas just south of Tyler had over an inch of rain just 25 miles away. There was scattered sleet and snow across ETX last night. Down to 22 here and still dropping this morning.
Now to focus on next week and figure out that mess of energy. We know that it will be cold so just need a good system or two to finally take advantage.

[Ntxw]

I had 0 precip of any kind yesterday. Areas just south of Tyler had over an inch of rain just 25 miles away. There was scattered sleet and snow across ETX last night. Down to 22 here and still dropping this morning.
Now to focus on next week and figure out that mess of energy. We know that it will be cold so just need a good system or two to finally take advantage.

Next week is better set up as the main PV drops down into the US. I see a brief warm up next weekend before another potential strong cold front. That's where folks my have heard of near 70 from TV after a cold week. But we've been on that boat already, where it's always +7 days out warmth only to be fleeting!

[South Texas Storms]

Early next week certainly looks interesting. The latest trends are good for frozen precip across the state.

[Ntxw]

Not sure about the accuracy of the ICON (german) model but here are the HP depictions for that and the CMC






Looking from the WPC analysis the benchmark HP so far this winter, it was strongest on NYE at 1050mb

[Ntxw]

I saw you guys posting about a potential wintry storm next week. Today on NBC5, met Rick Mitchell showed a CPC forecast of above average temps next week instead.

I had to bump this post from Jan 9th. I think the CPC does some great work but they are going to bust on this one it seems like big time and are hugging some of the warm guidance too much given winter trends.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winds calmed quite a bit last night, made it down to 16 this morning.

[orangeblood]

Not sure about the accuracy of the ICON (german) model but here are the HP depictions for that and the CMC


Looking from the WPC analysis the benchmark HP so far this winter, it was strongest on NYE at 1050mb

Yeah, this Arctic HP means business...would expect models to trend colder and colder. What I've noticed in the past, with these type Strong Arctic HP's (particularly this time of year), is that there's sometimes two rounds of potential wintry precip - one on the front end and one on the back end as the Arctic HP is very difficult to scour out, it typically stays around longer than forecast. Coincidentally, this is exactly what the models are depicting for next week...1st round on Tuesday and 2nd round on Thursday. The 1st round is more of an upglide setup that could cover a wide area as the arctic front moves south but I'm really intrigued by the 2nd one, that one has big potential if the S/W can dig far enough south and the cold air stays entrenched across the state.

Could be looking at another 50 Plus Hour below freezing spell for DFW next week

[orangeblood]

Also, GEM ENS Mean might be best model for next week on temps (its cold biased might be more favorable in this setup)....has Tuesdays high temps in low 20's and lows approaching single digits. This one could be the coldest of the season

[Ntxw]

I agree on potential Thursday of next week. 6z GFS has mischief while CMC is dry at the surface but has a disturbance overhead. Last week we mentioned next week was a tricky forecast and that models could trend the more extreme version (relative to what they were showing then with just a short, quick cold spell) and now turning out to be a long duration cold period. You just can't ignore all that anomalous cold that flooded Canada this past week.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, this Arctic HP means business...would expect models to trend colder and colder. What I've noticed in the past, with these type Strong Arctic HP's (particularly this time of year), is that there's sometimes two rounds of potential wintry precip - one on the front end and one on the back end as the Arctic HP is very difficult to scour out, it typically stays around longer than forecast. Coincidentally, this is exactly what the models are depicting for next week...1st round on Tuesday and 2nd round on Thursday. The 1st round is more of an upglide setup that could cover a wide area as the arctic front moves south but I'm really intrigued by the 2nd one, that one has big potential if the S/W can dig far enough south and the cold air stays entrenched across the state.

Could be looking at another 50 Plus Hour below freezing spell for DFW next week

I think we seriously need to take a look at winter 1977-1978 as a potential guide. Not that it's going to be the coldest, snowiest winter on record, but the evolution of how even with a not so great upper air pattern that models keep trying to flood the area with, a bitter cold source region even in a so-so 500mb is yielding big HP. It's the models missing the very cold air that they miss the big HP until closer. There's a correlated relationship between the strength of HP and the cold air involved. If they don't see the cold air they won't see the HP's true potential until they grasp that fact. They being the guidance.

As you mentioned before, the AO and NAO may cooperate here to begin February. That 1978 look is a good stepping block with the MJO. But there is a lot of cold to talk about before we even get there.

[stormlover2013]

still longs way out, watch models show blah today lol lol, won't know till about sunday night what might happen, I will say this though all models are on board is interesting with being 5 days away but watching them flip today lol

[CaptinCrunch]

Well, no one can say it hasn't been cold enough for winter precip, as we have had excellent cold, just not enough moisture to make everything pretty. I think we have a very good pattern going right now, and I'm thinking the cold will continue through late next week. Now I know some have been saying a warm up coming, which I do believe will, but I don't think it will be as warm as we think.

So far I'm very impressed with the cold of this "La Nina" and I'm pretty confindent NTX will have a very nice winter event before it's all said and done with. The Force is strong with this one!

[weatherdude1108]

33 years ago, 12+ inches of snow fell on San Antonio during a January 11th through January 13th 1985 time frame. It caused a mess around town, in a city that was not used to dealing with that amount of snow.
I was a kid living in San Antonio at the time, and we were out of school for several days.

Despite the inconveniences of some, it was so peaceful and quiet during and after it fell, absorbing the normal everyday sounds of the city. I loved every SECOND of it, and is what spurred my interest in weather. It was a once in a lifetime experience as they say.

https://youtu.be/-6-5Bt-2UVM

[srainhoutx]

29F for my morning low in NW Harris County with a wind chill feels like temperature of 19F. With another shot of Canadian air arriving tomorrow, I suspect it will even be colder Sunday morning. My pool antifreeze protection system has certainly been getting a workout this winter.

[utweather]

Early next week certainly looks interesting. The latest trends are good for frozen precip across the state.

Yeah, I think somebody is gonna get something on Tuesday and then maybe again Thursday night/Friday.

The Austin/San Antonio NWS is pointing in that direction. Also the local nbc affiliate did also and they tend to not copy the nws like the abc affiliate does. I would love for a low pressure area to come across the area next Thursday and dump a solid column of snow.

[bubba hotep]

Nice trends on the models last night, this was one of the better Euro runs and closer to the 00z Tuesday run that produced a significant multi day winter wx event across the northern portion of Texas.

00z Tuesday



On that run, the WCAN high cuts off, the GL trough stays shallow and doesn't scour out the Gulf moisture. This leave moisture in place as the Pacific NW system undercuts the ridge and dives into Texas. This setup leaves moisture in place with cold air as the system approaches from the west to produce lift.

The 00z from last night trended back towards the 00z Tuesday run but it isn't all the way there yet.



The WCAN ridge has a better orientation than previous runs but the GL trough still digs too deep into the SE. This pushes a front down into the Gulf but there is still some moisture return as the Pacific NW system dives into Texas. We need that GL trough to trend shallower so that the trailing cold front doesn't dig as deep into the Gulf. It is looking like we will see good lift and cold air but what about moisture? wxman57 keeps harping on the fact that there is too much dry air, we need that moisture!

[gpsnowman]

33 years ago, 12+ inches of snow fell on San Antonio during a January 11th through January 13th 1985 time frame. It caused a mess around town, in a city that was not used to dealing with that amount of snow.
I was a kid living in San Antonio at the time, and we were out of school for several days.

Despite the inconveniences of some, it was so peaceful and quiet during and after it fell, absorbing the normal everyday sounds of the city. I loved every SECOND of it, and is what spurred my interest in weather. It was a once in a lifetime experience as they say.

https://youtu.be/-6-5Bt-2UVM

I lived in San Antonio from 1981 to 1984 and outside of a quick burst of snow in January 1982 when I was in 2nd grade, never saw any winter precip. We moved to Dallas in the summer of 84 and I remember seeing all the news reports out of San Antonio thinking why couldn't we have stayed one more year. The winter of 84-85 was good for Dallas though. Especially January and February 1985.

[hamburgerman7070]

The orientation of the trough is crucial. Too far East and we miss out. That's been the main theme as of late. If gulf is choked off, you have to have really strong dynamics to overcome other stuff. Imo, Canada ridge too far East again. The pna going negative with a -nao/ao, not sure about that setup

[DFWLady]

Think I will rent one of those machines that makes snow. Anybody want to party with me? LOL I WILL see snow in my yard this winter!!!!!

I am in!