Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

I like the trends I'm seeing from the NAM re: Gulf Moisture returns on Tuesday...as you can see, the gulf door is open ahead of the Arctic Front. This type of front will tend to use all the available moisture it has to work with....

[weatherdude1108]

33 years ago, 12+ inches of snow fell on San Antonio during a January 11th through January 13th 1985 time frame. It caused a mess around town, in a city that was not used to dealing with that amount of snow.
I was a kid living in San Antonio at the time, and we were out of school for several days.

Despite the inconveniences of some, it was so peaceful and quiet during and after it fell, absorbing the normal everyday sounds of the city. I loved every SECOND of it, and is what spurred my interest in weather. It was a once in a lifetime experience as they say.

https://youtu.be/-6-5Bt-2UVM

I lived in San Antonio from 1981 to 1984 and outside of a quick burst of snow in January 1982 when I was in 2nd grade, never saw any winter precip. We moved to Dallas in the summer of 84 and I remember seeing all the news reports out of San Antonio thinking why couldn't we have stayed one more year. The winter of 84-85 was good for Dallas though. Especially January and February 1985.

Oh man, the timing! 1985 was a good year for Winter precip in Texas. A coworker said he had to drive from the library in downtown San Antonio to Austin that year, and Austin got the freezing rain, while San Antonio got the snow.

We went down to this vacant piece of land in town that had a hill. A bunch of us had plastic trash can lids, boogie boards, etc., sliding down the hill. My parents happened to have an actual sled with steel rails in their attic from somewhere. They took it out and let us borrow it. That was cool! Good times.

[South Texas Storms]

I like the trends I'm seeing from the NAM re: Gulf Moisture returns on Tuesday...as you can see, the gulf door is open ahead of the Arctic Front. This type of front will tend to use all the available moisture it has to work with....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_53.png

Yeah and you can see how it keeps trending the trough axis farther west over the past few runs. Certainly a good trend.

[PTrackerLA]

06z GFS Ensembles are pretty encouraging for wintry weather in Texas and LA. Things are trending more favorable every run.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What are the dynamics behind the wintry weather for tuesday? I see an 850 low on the coast but thats it. Not really seeing it. Dont want to be bamboozled like the last time! I didnt think it would happen but i let the models convince me!

Something to note, i think the high will come into the Southern plains much quicker than the last NY big high we had. The GFS wants to hang onto it a bit too much in the N Plains i think.

[Rgv20]

Haven't been following the models as closely as I would like this past few days but the overnight runs look promising for cold weather fun early next week! Interesting to see what today's 12z run say

[Ntxw]

What are the dynamics behind the wintry weather for tuesday? I see an 850 low on the coast but thats it. Not really seeing it. Dont want to be bamboozled like the last time! I didnt think it would happen but i let the models convince me!

Something to note, i think the high will come into the Southern plains much quicker than the last NY big high we had. The GFS wants to hang onto it a bit too much in the N Plains i think.

Frontal upglide with some STJ noise. Set up you see more of the central and northern plains. Bubba notes it well. Race between how much moisture we see return and how quickly cold can undercut it

[orangeblood]

What are the dynamics behind the wintry weather for tuesday? I see an 850 low on the coast but thats it. Not really seeing it. Dont want to be bamboozled like the last time! I didnt think it would happen but i let the models convince me!

Something to note, i think the high will come into the Southern plains much quicker than the last NY big high we had. The GFS wants to hang onto it a bit too much in the N Plains i think.

Frontal upglide with some STJ noise. Set up you see more of the central and northern plains. Bubba notes it well. Race between how much moisture we see return and how quickly cold can undercut it

This front is what is referred to as an Ana Front. An ana front is a frontal boundary in which the main shield of clouds and precipitation is located behind the actual frontal boundary.This is because cold air located behind the front moves rapidly, pushing against the warm air out ahead of the front. Because cold air is more dense than warm air, the surging cold air causes the warm air to lift upward along the front - Upglide as Ntxw just mentioned. Therefore, clouds and precipitation that form end up inclined rearward with height due to the advancing cold air at the surface. And the more moisture we have out in front of this Ana Front, the better chances we have to see more precip

Here is a decent illustration

[bubba hotep]

I'm liking the changes so far on the 12z GFS.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm liking the changes so far on the 12z GFS.

I'd say so

I'm supposed to drive to Denton from Montgomery County Tuesday. That is looking suspicious.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS all in on ice and snow for Texas! Isentropic lift ftw

Monster 1055mb HP in the far north

[Rgv20]

12z GFS all in on ice and snow for Texas! Isentropic lift ftw

Monster 1055mb HP in the far north

How is the source region for the cold temps? Similar to the New Years event? If so around this time frame the GFS was a good 5 to 8 degrees to warm on the last prior event.

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS all in on ice and snow for Texas! Isentropic lift ftw

Monster 1055mb HP in the far north

Looks very similar to the 0z Euro now. Now we need the 12z Euro to hold or trend even better!

[Ntxw]

12z GFS all in on ice and snow for Texas! Isentropic lift ftw

Monster 1055mb HP in the far north

How is the source region for the cold temps? Similar to the New Years event? If so around this time frame the GFS was a good 5 to 8 degrees to warm on the last prior event.

GFS I'd say on cold blasts has been a good 5 degrees too warm. Plenty cold up in Canada right now. Last night's GFS run had DFW drop to 29F, it got to 24-25. So whatever it has, I'd cut by that many

[Rgv20]

12z GFS all in on ice and snow for Texas! Isentropic lift ftw

Monster 1055mb HP in the far north

How is the source region for the cold temps? Similar to the New Years event? If so around this time frame the GFS was a good 5 to 8 degrees to warm on the last prior event.

GFS I'd say on cold blasts has been a good 5 degrees too warm. Plenty cold up in Canada right now. Last night's GFS run had DFW drop to 29F, it got to 24-25

Yeap on the last cold blast the GFS and to some extent the ECMWF never did quite grasp the cold air down here even in the short range. The NAM did a terrific job down here tho.

[Ntxw]

Had it, lost it, brought it back within 5 days. Classic

[stormlover2013]

just sucks its still 5 days away lol....will give you a headache lol

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS with ice/snow to the TX/LA gulf coasts and temps a good 5 degrees colder than the 06z run. *rubs hands together

[Ntxw]

CMC all in



It too is monster big high 1057mb in southern Canada

[Rgv20]

12zCMC very aggressive with winter weather for much of Texas early next week!