Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Rgv20]

18zNAM has temperatures quickly falling thru Thru Tuesday Evening....by the end of the run it has a temperature forecast of 34 with precipitation arriving from the NW

[Texas Snow]

NWS FWD Not too impressed with temps Thursday. Thursday morning 25 is cold but rising to 40 during the day then not back to freezing that night at 34. That said any precip that starts before mid-late morning will stick making drive time potentially treacherous.

[Texas Snow]

FWD AFD

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday night through Saturday/

Low level warm/moist advection will continue Sunday night in
response to an approaching surface trough and cold front. Although
warmer temperatures are expected it will still be cold with lows
in the 30s.

The cold front will move quickly through the Texas Panhandle and
Oklahoma Monday morning and should reach the Red River around
midday. Temperatures ahead of the front will continue to warm with
partial sun and continued warm air advection. Daytime temperatures
should make it into the 50s except along the Red River where the
upper 40s will be more likely. This shallow Arctic airmass will
not be hindered by boundary layer mixing and should have no
problem surging through North Texas late Monday afternoon. Lift
along and behind the front should be sufficient for some light
rain to develop. Although temperatures will fall through the
afternoon Thursday, it will remain above freezing which will keep
all precipitation of the liquid variety.

Things will become interesting Monday evening as temperatures quickly
fall. Locations roughly along and north of Interstate 20 should
fall below freezing before midnight with the remainder of the
forecast area reaching freezing before sunrise Tuesday.
Isentropic lift above the wedge of Arctic air will likely result
in a mix of precipitation types with cold rain first, followed by
light freezing rain, followed by light sleet and or snow.
Confidence in this scenario continues to grow with successive runs
of multiple models in agreement. The QPF by all solutions remains
light but it will not take much precip to cause some substantial
impacts to travel since surface temperatures will likely be in
the 20s before the precip ends during the morning hours Tuesday.
We will continue to highlight this potential winter weather event
with a Special Weather Statement. We will not issue a Winter
Storm Watch at this time since freezing rain, sleet and snow
amounts are not expected reach warning criteria but again, impacts
could be on the high side.


The precipitation will move south and east of the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon, but the cold air will remain in place and
clouds will likely linger for most of the day. Therefore,
afternoon highs will struggle to make it above freezing and any
residual precipitation will remain frozen so travel impacts could
linger through the day.

Clouds will finally clear Tuesday night which will result in a
very cold night with lows mainly in the teens.

Brief ridging aloft and ample sun on Wednesday will help
temperatures to finally warm above freezing, but it will still
remain in the middle and upper 30s.

The upper ridge axis will translate east Wednesday night ahead of
an upper low progged to move across the Colorado/New Mexico
border. Increasing upper level diffluence and low level moisture
will result in increasing precipitation chances Thursday. The
models do differ on the speed and placement of the upper low with
the ECMWF keeping the system generally across Central Texas and
the GFS having a more northerly solution. Unfortunately,
precipitation will likely begin when temperatures are near or
below freezing which could result in another winter weather event.
Looking at the forecast soundings reveals that freezing rain
would be the most likely precipitation type Thursday morning with
mainly a cold rain Thursday afternoon. For now we will keep PoPs
low due to model discontinuity but this system certainly bears
watching since moisture should be much more available.

The upper trough axis will move east of the area Thursday night and
precipitation chances will end through Saturday but will likely return
by Sunday. An appreciable warmup is expected Friday and Saturday
with ridging aloft and the return of Gulf Moisture. High
temperatures Friday and Saturday will be generally in the 60s with
lows Friday night in the 40s.

[orangeblood]

NWS FWD Not too impressed with temps Thursday. Thursday morning 25 is cold but rising to 40 during the day then not back to freezing that night at 34. That said any precip that starts before later morning will stick.

Id imagine they'll be trending those down quite a bit, this kind of dense Arctic Air is tough to erode

[Texas Snow]

Agreed, just another thing to watch

[Theepicman116]

Possible snow day on Tuesday????

[Yukon Cornelius]

:uarrow: I think Yukon Cornelius will be happy with that.

Id definitely be happy with that!

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS is coming in now and temps are trending colder across SETX with what looks to be more moisture than prior runs as well. Wow, the 18z looks way more interesting. Shows a huge bomb of precipitation across most of Texas Thursday into early Friday with temps in the 30’s across most of the state. Trim those temps down another 5 degrees and we could be looking at a widespread major winter storm across a huge part of the state.

[South Texas Storms]

The 18z GFS is coming in now and temps are trending colder across SETX with what looks to be more moisture than prior runs as well.

Yeah and the Thursday system is also a bit deeper on this run as well.

[Texas Snow]

If that were to verify, huge impact in DFW with sleet or ice Thursday.

[Portastorm]

I noticed the 18z GFS was a bit faster with the front here for south central Texas. Will be interesting to see if the model is getting a better grasp on timing or if this was just an anomalous run. As we all know, the GFS doesn't handle the timing of shallow Arctic airmasses all that well.

[Cpv17]

I noticed the 18z GFS was a bit faster with the front here for south central Texas. Will be interesting to see if the model is getting a better grasp on timing or if this was just an anomalous run. As we all know, the GFS doesn't handle the timing of shallow Arctic airmasses all that well.

If it comes in faster would that bode well for winter weather?

[Cpv17]

18z GFS came in 5 degrees colder in my area for Thursday compared to the 12z. That’s a big decline in just one run.

[Portastorm]

I noticed the 18z GFS was a bit faster with the front here for south central Texas. Will be interesting to see if the model is getting a better grasp on timing or if this was just an anomalous run. As we all know, the GFS doesn't handle the timing of shallow Arctic airmasses all that well.

If it comes in faster would that bode well for winter weather?

For the Austin area it would mean that the wintry mix would begin earlier than what previous runs of the GFS suggested. Would also probably mean greater amounts of wintry mix as a result.

[Snowman67]

Beyond this weeks cold front(s), it appears that we will have a slight/moderate warm up going into next weekend. What are the mid-long range models showing regarding the timing of the next front to make it into the state?

[TheAustinMan]

As longhornmaniac8 mentioned earlier, the GFS nearly depicts an almost completely frozen air column Tuesday afternoon. It's a game of miles and the 850hPa temperature here, but regardless, the frozen precipitation already ongoing Tuesday morning should be quite the nuisance for drivers here. Special weather statement from NWS EWX highlighted the increase confidence of frozen precip here. (I remember the AFD underscored some warm front activity for next week about a week ago... amazing how quickly things can change).

[iorange55]

I just hope we have enough moisture for the system on Tuesday here in DFW because it would be the nice, powdery white stuff with wind and temps in the 20s. The system on Thursday might have more precip, but it looks like it could be sleet or freezing rain.

[Ralph's Weather]

It seems to me that with a strong upper trough crossing the state the upper levels will be cold and you have to assume that the models erode the cold too fast so i am leaning towards snow for the northern part of the state for late week.

[Brent]

I'm back!!!! This 50 degrees is gonna feel hot after i left Chicago and it was 15 degrees

[bubba hotep]

Euro EPS was good looking for the I20 corridor with two rounds of winter wx, nearly 2" at DFW. We need to jack those totals up!

ETA: GEFS was even better with higher totals