Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

Just got home. Plotted the best ECMWF 12Z soundings (most moisture & possible precip) for DFW for Tuesday's and Thursday's events. Neither looks good for much precip in the DFW area, I'm afraid. Let me take a look at Austin's projected soundings. BRB...

[Texas Snow]

“You are not the Snow Mizer we are looking for.”

[Lagreeneyes03]

Yeah but just last week Wxman Snow Miser said it would be too dry for any frozen precip in DFW for the forseeable future..and now look. The models changed, and now It's almost full panic mode out in public.

[wxman57]

Well, it's clear that the ECMWF operational run is not your friend if you're in Austin. These are the best two soundings I could pull off the 12Z ECMWF. Not very good. Perhaps some mid-level precip, but there's a warm nose on Tuesday.

[wxman57]

“You are not the Snow Mizer we are looking for.”

I was just reporting the facts. That's not my forecast, it's just ECMWF soundings. I don't think that the Euro did too well with the Dec. 8th snow event. Probably best to start looking at the 3km and 12km NAM and WRF for Tuesday's event.

[Texas Snow]

NAM not too impressive so far.

[Ntxw]

NAM not too impressive so far.

Here is the last 5 NAM 12km trends for midnight Mon-Tues. It's going to the globals gradually. Remember it's wheelbarrow is 48hrs or under. Above that it's generally treated similar to long range GFS. You can see pretty clear it is doing what the globals did for days, started out long range with little moisture but lifts north each run thereafter

0Z runs will be coming in the next hour and half or so for the NAM, an hour later for the GFS and CMC will start

[South Texas Storms]

Other models to watch closely like wxman mentioned are the Texas Tech WRF (goes out to 60 hours) and the NMM and ARW WRF models (goes out to 48 hours).

These models (along with the NAM) handled the December snow event pretty well.

TX Tech WRF model Link: http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/ttuwrfhome.php?dmn=2km&prm=sfc_dbz&run=0

ARW WRF model link: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=scus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018011312&fh=1

[Haris]

Sorry, I just joined yesterday. How do we upload a pic or gif?

[Texas Snow]

You need an account like photobucket, something you can link to from any web browser. You can’t upload from your desktop. Then click the IMG button next to the font types etc. paste the weblink to the photo between the brackets that the IMG button will insert for you. If that last part doesn’t make sense, start replying to my message and click that button and you will see what it does. Your direct link to the photo will go in between the brackets.

Use the preview to see if it worked. Voila.

[wxman57]

Neither the 12km NAM nor the EC is indicating very much moisture for the trof to work with on Tuesday. To get really significant winter weather accumulations, you really need a good moisture supply, like a coastal low (west Gulf low). That's what we had on Dec. 8th.

[missygirl810]

Neither the 12km NAM nor the EC is indicating very much moisture for the trof to work with on Tuesday. To get really significant winter weather accumulations, you really need a good moisture supply, like a coastal low (west Gulf low). That's what we had on Dec. 8th.

For your area or just in general?

[TexasF6]

WxMan, I see a magnificent moisture plume approaching the west coast on WV imagery. I think gfs is on to it....

[Quixotic]

I didn’t want to be the gloom and doom guy but since others are saying similar things, I just don’t see how we get much precipitation on Monday night. If the front is as strong as they say, it will dry out the lower levels. If it eases through, I can see the upglide. That’s been my experience here anyways. Thursday looks more promising. This is a NTex perspective.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM keeps the snow around NTX longer in another round tuesday like the Canadian. Several inches S/Se of DFW. Each NAM run is getting wetter and more northward. Still not yet within its 48h range

[EnnisTx]

0z NAM keeps the snow around NTX longer in another round tuesday like the Canadian. Several inches S/Se of DFW. Each NAM run is getting wetter and more northward. Still not yet within its 48h range

That's what I'm seeing, at least a couple inches of snow across the DFW area.

[TexasF6]

NAM32K sees what the gfs sees!!!!

[Theepicman116]

I get all happy and now Y'all are saying "Oh, no snow." Stop playing with my emotions and hope Y'all.

[Haris]

NAM has trended ALOT wetter folks for Austin ! It shows 17 hours of freezing rain and sleet with some snow to end the event

[Cpv17]

Wow, that’s some serious widespread ice/snow totals across the state on that run of the NAM.