Texas Winter 2017-2018

[gboudx]

I tend to get my hopes up when it comes to winter weather, but I've learned over the years not to completely buy into what is forecast or what the models show.

For one their not always correct and all it takes is just a small change in direction or moisture and you're in or out of business.

This is what makes this board such a great asset.

This is why I take everything with a grain of salt, even the discussions here. I don't buy into wintry precip until I see it falling. It's just the way it goes around here. You can't get too up based on model runs or discussions. Sometimes, you just have to trust the weather rock.

[Ntxw]

Stepping aside from snow for a moment. How often do you see this? 1059mb!

[gpsnowman]

If this doesn’t get filled in soon I am going to lose my mind!

http://i1174.photobucket.com/albums/r615/jwalden94/43B4F7D8-28CD-486B-B829-C3CF9AD2543D_zpslqdpedcj.png

Right!!! That is a cruel joke.

[Ntxw]

I tend to get my hopes up when it comes to winter weather, but I've learned over the years not to completely buy into what is forecast or what the models show.

For one their not always correct and all it takes is just a small change in direction or moisture and you're in or out of business.

This is what makes this board such a great asset.

This is why I take everything with a grain of salt, even the discussions here. I don't buy into wintry precip until I see it falling. It's just the way it goes around here. You can't get too up based on model runs or discussions. Sometimes, you just have to trust the weather rock.

To be fair without this board, most of us wouldn't even know cold was coming based on media and some forecasters 7 days ago! . In fact, you'd be planning for a heat wave

[gboudx]

I tend to get my hopes up when it comes to winter weather, but I've learned over the years not to completely buy into what is forecast or what the models show.

For one their not always correct and all it takes is just a small change in direction or moisture and you're in or out of business.

This is what makes this board such a great asset.

This is why I take everything with a grain of salt, even the discussions here. I don't buy into wintry precip until I see it falling. It's just the way it goes around here. You can't get too up based on model runs or discussions. Sometimes, you just have to trust the weather rock.

To be fair without this board, most us wouldn't even know cold was coming based on media and some forecasters 7 days ago! . In fact, you'd be planning for a heat wave

Right. NBC 5's Rick Mitchell was showing a graphic with above normal temps for this week. Well, that's not happening as shown.

I'll clarify that I do take the discussions with a grain salt, but that doesn't mean I don't enjoy them, or find them informative. I mostly gloss over the model maps that show snow accumulations and such.

[gboudx]

And it looks like portions of the metroplex will have a WWA, so it's good that TexasSnow won't lose his/her mind.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
314 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

TXZ094-095-104>106-115>120-129>133-141-150500-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.180116T0000Z-180116T1800Z/
Fannin-Lamar-Collin-Hunt-Delta-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-
Dallas-Rockwall-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Comanche-
Including the cities of Bonham, Paris, Plano, McKinney, Allen,
Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Breckenridge,
Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas,
Rockwall, Heath, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville,
Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne,
Burleson, Comanche, and De Leon
314 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed light wintry precipitation is expected. Plan on
slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute
on Tuesday. Total ice, sleet, and snow accumulations of up to a
half inch are expected.

* WHERE...For portions of north central and northeast Texas. This
includes the area from Breckenridge to Comanche northeastward to
the DFW Metroplex and the Paris and Greenville areas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Icy bridges and roadways will make for
hazardous travel. Even a light glaze of ice can create dangerous
driving conditions. Wind chills will fall into the single
digits.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

[Texas Snow]

Yep just saw the new graphic thank you. Just to clarify, Collin county is in fact in it, but Denton is not.

[JDawg512]

This rain miser is switching over to winter mode. I need to cover several plants and get my shopping done. Will check back tonight for latest info. In the meantime, hope everyone is having a great afternoon.

[Ntxw]

Hoping 0z trends further north and adds another tenth of an inch. We need to give our friends along the Red River some snow.

[Brent]

Lol up to a half inch

[Brandon8181]

Well well! Hello everyone.

Most of you probably don't remember me. I use to live in the Sherman / Denison area which for several years there we were getting several large batches of snow. Work and my wife relocated me to Tyler, TX. We never get snow here! It is pathetic. Well, it looks like this one might be the one for us! Really looking forward to a possible snow day. I do up Texas Snowman up in Sherman/Denison does get some snow though...

I'm getting just a little bit excited!

[Brandon8181]

Lol up to a half inch

Right... "up to"..... Doesn't seem like it will amount to much

[Quixotic]

Ugh. Looks like the fun will be south. Enjoy.

[starsfan65]

Ugh. Looks like the fun will be south. Enjoy.

it will change

[aggiecutter]

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
206 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Monday evening through
Tuesday for portions of Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and
Northwest Louisiana...

ARZ059>061-070>073-LAZ001>004-TXZ097-108>112-124>126-136>138-
149>151-151200-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.A.0001.180116T0300Z-180117T0000Z/
Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-
Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-
Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Including the cities of Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana,
Stamps, Lewisville, Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport,
Bossier City, Minden, Springhill, Homer, Haynesville,
Mount Vernon, Mount Pleasant, Pittsburg, Daingerfield, Lone Star,
Naples, Omaha, Atlanta, Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City,
Mineola, Winnsboro, Quitman, Hawkins, Gilmer, Big Sandy,
Jefferson, Tyler, Longview, Marshall, Jacksonville, Rusk,
Henderson, and Carthage
206 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...A strong Arctic cold front will bring the potential for a
brief period of freezing rain and sleet Monday evening followed
by a changeover to snow Monday night through Tuesday. Bands of
light to moderate snowfall will develop behind the front with
occasional bands of heavy snow possible, resulting in widespread
snowfall amounts of 2-3 inches with the potential for higher
amounts of up to 4 inches. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
from Monday night through Tuesday and possibly beyond.

* WHERE...Much of the Ark-La-Tex region including Northeast Texas,
Southwest Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibilities are
possible. Snow and ice accumulations on elevated surfaces such
as bridges and overpasses will be especially impacted as well as
more secondary roadways.

[opticsguy]

The normal road salt (sodium chloride) is pretty much useless below 20 degrees, so even if the roads are treated, if it gets cold, they will still be slick.

I have a trip to LAX on an early flight Tuesday. Waiting for a travel advisory from AA.

[gboudx]

Ugh. Looks like the fun will be south. Enjoy.

it will change

How will it change? Expand further north? Less in Metroplex as it shifts further south? We need details.

[starsfan65]

Ugh. Looks like the fun will be south. Enjoy.

it will change

How will it change? Expand further north? Less in Metroplex as it shifts further south? We need details.

We still got the 18z GFS run soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

Interesting that the Experimental HRRR (scheduled to replace the current HRRR this spring) is showing much more moisture across north TX than the other high-res models.

Latest run here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrrx&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011418&fh=1

One thing I find interesting in this run, and to some extent in the rgem, and even the nam (though further south), is that there seems to be more convective banding, as opposed to a broad precip shield. Like in many of our winter weather setups, this potential should be watched as it would likely result in some areas picking up noticeably more accumulation while some areas might pick up next to nothing. The result might be a broad-brushed .5” average across the metro, but the story could be very different depending specific location

[orangeblood]

Interesting that the Experimental HRRR (scheduled to replace the current HRRR this spring) is showing much more moisture across north TX than the other high-res models.

Latest run here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrrx&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011418&fh=1

This model did fairly well during last week's "non-event" event....the Tech Model was absolute garbage up until about 3 or 4 hrs prior. All of the WRF models look out of touch until about 12 hrs prior as well.