Texas Winter 2017-2018

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5901 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:03 pm

iorange55 wrote:I’m feeling more optimistic tonight. I think the HRRRX is gonna pull out a surprising win. Like others have been saying, with this set up, we don’t really need a lot of precip. We just need some and I think we’re gonna get that.


The HRRRx has preformed well in the past but I don't look at it as often, given it's erratic nature. It seems like it is always down when I look at it lol
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5902 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:05 pm

The 0z Experimental HRRR run looks pretty nice. Hope it verifies. Curious to see how it performs with this event. Will be a good test case for sure.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5903 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:14 pm

Tidbits I think is still struggling with some surface maps of RGEM. But here is 0z qpf run during advertised period so far. It ends the precip a little bit sooner than 18z cutting the total down a bit

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5904 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:31 pm

00z GFS running! Most important GFS run of the winter for DFW :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5905 Postby aggiecutter » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:39 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5906 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:40 pm

A hair better? :lol:. That's all we need! At least it's just the NAM that is bone dry for DFW

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5907 Postby iorange55 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:42 pm

I was about to post that! That's all we asked for tonight, and we got it. We just need a little and the trend is now back in our favor.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5908 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:47 pm

iorange55 wrote:I was about to post that! That's all we asked for tonight, and we got it. We just need a little and the trend is now back in our favor.


It will be real time in about 12-24hrs. We'll have an idea what is right when we see precip start forming. If it happens over DFW we're likely in trouble but if it occurs to the N/NW we're in good shape
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5909 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:48 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:Tuesday is my birthday!! Would love to see some snow.



Is there any chance we will see snow/sleet/freezing rain where I am in East Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5910 Postby Haris » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:
iorange55 wrote:I was about to post that! That's all we asked for tonight, and we got it. We just need a little and the trend is now back in our favor.


It will be real time in about 12-24hrs. We'll have an idea what is right when we see precip start forming. If it happens over DFW we're likely in trouble but if it occurs to the N/NW we're in good shape

GFS STILL HAMMERS ME! YAY
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5911 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:50 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
iorange55 wrote:I’m feeling more optimistic tonight. I think the HRRRX is gonna pull out a surprising win. Like others have been saying, with this set up, we don’t really need a lot of precip. We just need some and I think we’re gonna get that.


The HRRRx has preformed well in the past but I don't look at it as often, given it's erratic nature. It seems like it is always down when I look at it lol


This model has performed the best during our surprise winter storms, it was our go-to during the 2011 Pre-Super Bowl storm where no one, besides this board, was predicting a thing. It also did well last week, the Texas Tech model was the worthless one so probably best to throw that one out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5912 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:54 pm

Haris wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
iorange55 wrote:I was about to post that! That's all we asked for tonight, and we got it. We just need a little and the trend is now back in our favor.


It will be real time in about 12-24hrs. We'll have an idea what is right when we see precip start forming. If it happens over DFW we're likely in trouble but if it occurs to the N/NW we're in good shape

GFS STILL HAMMERS ME! YAY


Yes, GFS has plenty of sleet for Austin ending as some snow. Some sleet for Houston proper verbatim
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5913 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:59 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:Tuesday is my birthday!! Would love to see some snow.



Is there any chance we will see snow/sleet/freezing rain where I am in East Texas.

You are pretty far south but i do think you will see some freezing rain and sleet starting early Tuesday morning and ending possibly with a flurry of snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5914 Postby aggiecutter » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:00 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5915 Postby longhornweather » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:06 pm

Haris wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
iorange55 wrote:I was about to post that! That's all we asked for tonight, and we got it. We just need a little and the trend is now back in our favor.


It will be real time in about 12-24hrs. We'll have an idea what is right when we see precip start forming. If it happens over DFW we're likely in trouble but if it occurs to the N/NW we're in good shape

GFS STILL HAMMERS ME! YAY

Seems like there hasn’t been too much in the way of changes for the Austin area this evening. Still looks like a mixed bag mess of frozen precipitation.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5916 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:10 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:Tuesday is my birthday!! Would love to see some snow.



Is there any chance we will see snow/sleet/freezing rain where I am in East Texas.

You are pretty far south but i do think you will see some freezing rain and sleet starting early Tuesday morning and ending possibly with a flurry of snow.


Don't like freezing rain but will take a flurry of snow. We don't get to see snow much down here so even if we see flurries come down as long as we can see it in the light of a flash light that's pretty awesome down here. We get pretty excited. I know we are some lame.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5917 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:15 pm

Local weather shows 50% chance of possible rain/snow for Tuesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5918 Postby Captmorg70 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:16 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:

Is there any chance we will see snow/sleet/freezing rain where I am in East Texas.

You are pretty far south but i do think you will see some freezing rain and sleet starting early Tuesday morning and ending possibly with a flurry of snow.


Don't like freezing rain but will take a flurry of snow. We don't get to see snow much down here so even if we see flurries come down as long as we can see it in the light of a flash light that's pretty awesome down here. We get pretty excited. I know we are some lame.


I do this too up in NTx. There is something very exciting about winter weather. I don’t blame you :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5919 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:16 pm

One aspect we keep forgetting is cold! DFW is forecasted with a high of 26F Tuesday. Austin 27F. Houston low 40s and falling to low to mid 30s.

At -3.5F for the month so far this week is going to drop it a bit more. Unless some record blowtorch happens the second half, we are a lock almost for below average winter month!



...in 2015-2016 our entire winter low was 27F. Last year at this time we were embarking on the the torchiest of torch endings for a winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#5920 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:33 pm

Crazy uncle is still on board, looks very similar to HRRR...tough forecasts for the NWS offices across the state tomorrow

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