SIO: 99S - Invest

[Yellow Evan]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 150645.jpg

Another invest that's been basically ignored by the agencies.

[WAcyclone]

Looks like this is already a TC...



Very impressive microwave structure:




From the JTWC:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.2S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY DEVELOP
99S AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

Appears to be already near or at minimal Tropical Storm intensity based on recent ASCAT passes today.


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmospher ... Bds175.png

Not much time left for the system to significantly strengthen though, as models show it moving into northern Mozambique within the next 12hrs or so.

[mrbagyo]

Should have been at least a Tropical Storm
Nice structure

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WTIO21 FMEE 160024 CCA
FIX ............... ..............
METEO-FRANCE / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF THE MEETING
BMS MARINE ON 16/01/2018 At 0000 UTC.
NUMBER: 004/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS OVER 10 MINUTES IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY EXCEED ABOUT 40. VALUE OF WIND
WAY).
MINIMUM PRESSURE AT THE LEVEL OF THE SEA IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE VALUE)
WARNING
START OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: DEPRESSION ON EARTH 4 1001 HPA
POSITION: IN A RADIUS OF 20 MN AROUND POINT 15.4 S / 40.4 E
(FIFTEEN DEGREES FOUR SOUTH AND FORTY DEGREES FOUR EAST) TO 0000 UTC
DISPLACEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
AREAS THREATENED:
GRAIN TIME WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONARY 25KT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER GRAINS.
FORECAST: INTENDED POSITION AND INTENSITY:
AT 12H FOR 16/01/2018 AT 12 UTC:
14.9 S / 39.5 E, WIND MAX = 20 KT, LOW PRESSURE
AT 24H FOR 17/01/2018 AT 00 UTC:
14.2 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY RSMC CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.