Texas Winter 2017-2018

[gpsnowman]

https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2 ... icant.html

Goes along with what Ntwx and RalphsWeather posted on the previous page.

[Ntxw]

Looks like initial front is through Oklahoma City. Winds switched from south to north and they have about reached their high for today

[orangeblood]

https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2018/01/january-23-27-potentially-significant.html

Goes along with what Ntwx and RalphsWeather posted on the previous page.

Yeah, I've started to notice the ENS becoming awfully noisy over the past few days for the Jan. 25-28th time frame

[Ntxw]

The NAM and GFS are over initializing the HP up north. think the HRRR is going to beat them in that department




It's not 1057mb + right now in Montana

[orangeblood]

The NAM and GFS are over initializing the HP up north. think the HRRR is going to beat them in that department




It's not 1057mb + right now in Montana

Was just about to post this...yeah, this has to have precip implications downstream. As Wxman57 would say, "garbage in, garbage out". How can you trust what the NAM and GFS are depicting if they can't even initialize correctly ?

Weaker HP, less drying out at the surface = more precip north, possibly warmer temps across the board

[PineyWoods]

I have a question about the upper column temps here in NC & NE Texas. Is this Arctic front going to eventually cool down the column quick enough before the precipitation ends? I see where some are getting excited because the HP is not as strong as earlier sample. If it's not will this impede the cooling of the column for snow?
thanks

[aggiecutter]

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
448 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from this evening
through tomorrow for portions of Northeast Texas, Southwest
Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana...

...A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from early this
evening through noon tomorrow for extreme southeast Oklahoma,
portions of northeast Texas and portions of southwest Arkansas...

ARZ059>061-070>073-LAZ001>004-006-TXZ097-108>112-124>126-136>138-
149>151-152200-
/O.CON.KSHV.WS.W.0001.180116T0300Z-180117T0000Z/
Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-
Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-
Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Including the cities of Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana,
Stamps, Lewisville, Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport,
Bossier City, Minden, Springhill, Homer, Haynesville,
Farmerville, Bernice, Mount Vernon, Mount Pleasant, Pittsburg,
Daingerfield, Lone Star, Naples, Omaha, Atlanta, Linden,
Hughes Springs, Queen City, Mineola, Winnsboro, Quitman, Hawkins,
Gilmer, Big Sandy, Jefferson, Tyler, Longview, Marshall,
Jacksonville, Rusk, Henderson, and Carthage
448 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...A strong Arctic cold front will bring the potential for a
brief period of freezing rain and sleet Monday evening followed
by a quick changeover to snow Monday night through Tuesday.
Bands of light to moderate snowfall will develop behind the
front with occasional bands of heavy snow possible, resulting in
widespread snowfall amounts of 2-3 inches with the potential for
higher amounts of up to 4 inches. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, from Monday night through Tuesday and possibly
beyond, as cold overnight temperatures could maintain some icing
on roadways.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas,
north central Louisiana, northwest and northeast Louisiana and
northeast Texas.

* WHEN...9 PM today to 6 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibilities are
possible. Snow and ice accumulations on elevated surfaces such
as bridges and overpasses will be especially impacted as well as
secondary roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[Ntxw]

I have a question about the upper column temps here in NC & NE Texas. Is this Arctic front going to eventually cool down the column quick enough before the precipitation ends? I see where some are getting excited because the HP is not as strong as earlier sample. If it's not will this impede the cooling of the column for snow?
thanks

It doesn't change much for northeast and nc east TX. It simply means there could be more moisture via HRRR and international bunch vs the two american models which were drier as whole for the state. Higher totals for you.

[orangeblood]

I have a question about the upper column temps here in NC & NE Texas. Is this Arctic front going to eventually cool down the column quick enough before the precipitation ends? I see where some are getting excited because the HP is not as strong as earlier sample. If it's not will this impede the cooling of the column for snow?
thanks

Possibly, it could slow the transition over to snow...this could mean that north and northeast Texas will have a longer duration sleet event before changing over the snow as precip comes to an end

[orangeblood]

HRRR continues the theme of breaking out precip much further north than any of the global models, Wichita Falls might even see some action at this rate

[Ralph's Weather]

I have a question about the upper column temps here in NC & NE Texas. Is this Arctic front going to eventually cool down the column quick enough before the precipitation ends? I see where some are getting excited because the HP is not as strong as earlier sample. If it's not will this impede the cooling of the column for snow?
thanks

The upper levels should be plenty cold up here i believe.

[snowballzzz]

Does anyone have the link for the HRRR?

[Ntxw]

HRRR has it snowing along I-20 tonight with up to 25kts of wind. Getting up there to brief blizzard conditions

It is not the pretty and gentle type snow

[losf1981]

HRRR continues the theme of breaking out precip much further north than any of the global models, Wichita Falls might even see some action at this rate

may your words ring true my friend!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Does anyone have the link for the HRRR?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1512&fh=24

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

**Winter Weather Advisory issued for all of SE TX for Tuesday***

Winter Storm Warnings issued N and W of SE TX for Tuesday

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all of SE TX for Tuesday for the accumulation of ice resulting in dangerous driving conditions. The advisory is in effect from 300am Tuesday to 600am Wednesday.

Hazardous driving conditions are likely to develop across SE TX on Tuesday from NW to SE including the Houston metro area.

It is important to understand that unlike most of our winter weather events across SE TX which usually occur during the overnight and early morning hours, that this event will begin near sunrise and worsen during the day into Tuesday night with travel becoming increasingly impacted throughout the duration of Tuesday.

Discussion
Powerful arctic cold front is moving through the plains and will enter TX later this morning and blast off the coast early Tuesday morning. Temperatures will fall rapidly in the post frontal cold air advection with the freezing line reaching a College Station to LaGrange line before sunrise and to Hwy 105 by sunrise and then to US 59 by midday/early afternoon and the coast by early evening. Expect temperatures to fall into the 20’s across much of the area by late afternoon/early evening on Tuesday. Moisture will be lifted up and over the surging cold pool resulting in lift and scattered light precipitation across the post frontal air mass. Strong winds of 15-25mph will drive wind chills well into the 10’s and 20’s on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Widespread freeze with low temperatures well into the 20’s for all areas and possibly upper 10’s N of HWY 105 for Wednesday morning.

P-type:
Will see rain develop tonight ahead of the arctic boundary and then transition to freezing rain early Tuesday morning from LaGrange to College Station to Huntsville. Freezing rain will move southward Tuesday morning likely reaching HWY 105 just after sunrise and then to US 59 by midday and the coast by late afternoon/early evening. Colder air will filter into the region throughout the day allowing some sleet or even snow to mix with the freezing rain especially across the north and western counties where the surface freezing layer will be deepest and the mid level warm layer smallest. Overall the dominant P-type appears to be freezing rain for much of Tuesday morning and then a freezing rain/sleet mixture across much of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Accumulations:
Overall accumulations will be light, but even a trace of freezing rain can be extremely hazardous on bridges and overpasses. Given ground temperatures are already cold from the recent cold weather and temperatures on Tuesday will be falling into the upper 20’s over a large portion of the area…ice formation is likely on all elevated surfaces. As temperatures fall into the mid 20’s Tuesday evening ice may even begin to form on surface streets if they remain wet. Accumulations of ice will average anywhere from .05 of an inch to .10 of an inch across the region.

Impacts:
Expect freezing rain and ice formation to begin before sunrise on Tuesday NW of LaGrange to Huntsville with travel conditions deteriorating as ice forms on bridges and overpasses. Ice accumulation will move southward during the day and likely begin to impact the metro Houston area by midday into the afternoon hours with bridges and overpasses becoming slick. Main concerns will be all bridges and overpasses as accumulations are not expected to be heavy enough to result in downed tree limbs or power lines.

Confidence:
While confidence is high that much of the area will see freezing/frozen precipitation the exact timing of onset and accumulations may change over the next 24 hours. Should accumulations need to be increased a Winter Storm Warning would be required for the area or portions of the area.

Decision Support:

· NW of LaGrange to Huntsville: Onset freezing rain 300-400am Tuesday. Ice accumulation up to .10 of an inch. Hazardous travel all day



· N of HWY 105: Onset freezing rain 600-900am Tuesday. Ice accumulation of .06 to .10 of an inch. Hazardous travel after mid morning Tuesday



· N of US 59 including metro Houston: Onset freezing rain 1100am-200pm. Ice Accumulation .05 to .08 of an inch. Hazardous travel starting around noon/early afternoon



· Coastal areas: Onset of freezing rain 300-600pm. Ice accumulation .01 to .05 of an inch. Hazardous travel starting mid afternoon



· Precipitation should gradually end from N to S Tuesday evening, but very cold temperature will maintain icy conditions through mid morning on Wednesday.

Key Messages:

· Winter Precipitation now likely across SE TX on Tuesday

· Ice accumulations of .01 to .10 of an inch expected over much of the region

· Travel will become increasingly hazardous during the day Tuesday and continue into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning

· Temperatures will fall into the 20’s across the entire area Tuesday night with wind chills into the 10’s (Hard freeze warning may be required for some areas)

· Protection of plant, pipes, pets, and people should be completed today

[Rgv20]

Going to be interesting how much Rain and how quickly temperatures fall to freezing. NAM is coming in cold and with moisture has temperatures in the 30-33 range


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
648 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

TXZ248>257-152100-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Kenedy-Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Including the cities of Zapata, Hebbronville, Falfurrias, Sarita,
Rio Grande City, Roma, McAllen, Edinburg, Pharr, Mission,
Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen, Port Mansfield,
Port Isabel, South Padre Island, Laguna Heights, and Laguna Vista
648 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills expected for much
of this week...

...A Wintry Mix of precipitation expected from late Tuesday
through Wednesday...

A very strong Arctic cold front will move through Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday. In the wake of this
frontal passage, temperatures are expected to peak Tuesday
morning with the mercury falling steadily through the rest of the
day.

As the Arctic air continues pushing into region the temperatures
will drop steadily through Tuesday Night with overnight lows
bottoming out in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the northern
Ranchlands, the lower to mid 30s across the lower Valley with mid
to upper 30s expected the coastline.

Temperatures will not warm up much on Wednesday with highs
struggling to reach into the mid to upper 30s. Overnight lows for
Wednesday Night will drop down once again ranging from the lower
30s across the Ranchlands to the mid 30s across the Valley to the
upper 30s to lower 40s at the coast.

The combination of the cold temperatures and the persistent
northerly surface winds will produce DANGEROUSLY low wind chill
values in the teens and 20s Tuesday Night through sunrise
Wednesday. The wind chill values will remain in the 20s
throughout the day Wednesday.

The cold northerly winds will diminish Wednesday Night which will
allow the wind chill values to increase slowly ranging in the
upper 20s to lower 30s through Thursday morning.

In addition to the cold and cloudy conditions, the combination of
the passage of the cold front and an upper level disturbance
moving across the Valley around midweek will result in better
precipitation chances from Tuesday through Thursday. The
precipitation will start off as all rain on Tuesday with the
frontal passage. As much colder air moves into the region and
lowers temperatures, a wintry mix of precipitation will be
possible across much of Deep South Texas around midweek. The best
chances for sleet, freezing rain or freezing drizzle will be
located over the northern and western Ranchlands from Tuesday
Night through Wednesday Night.

The potential for freezing or frozen precipitation will decrease
starting Thursday as the temperatures start to warm up late in the
week and drier air moves into the region.

Residents of Deep South Texas should make preparations for this
cold outbreak and remember the four P`s...Protection of Pipes,
Plants, and Pets. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts and
statements from the National Weather Service on this developing
winter weather situation.

Residents of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley with
travel plans Tuesday and Wednesday should closely monitor this
developing winter weather situation.

$$

Speece

[Ntxw]

RGEM holds firm. Looks nice for metroplex, even nicer totals in east/ne TX

KAUS gets 1-2" from it

[dhweather]

Starting to see signal for an outbreak of cold Jan 25-31st. Both EPS and GEFS has that dagger that comes down the Plains. Western Canada remains very cold throughout the rest of this month. 500mb heights during that period looks low, which could mean stormy.

That is a much better pattern for snow for us.

-PNA look with some Greenland blocking.

Some wicked cold in Siberia this week. Pattern is conducive to help it move by next weekend into the following week

-70F in Siberia - surely our bipolar friend wxman57 would love to go out for a lengthy bike ride in that.

[high_lander]

How does it look for the 380 corridor? Maps seem to be a little shaky on this.