Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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Rgv20
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6261 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:07 pm

Wind Chill Warning issued for all the RGV! I don't recall them ever issuing one :lol: :cold: :froze: :cold:


Wind Chill Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
625 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Frozen precipitation and bitter cold Tuesday and Wednesday...

.A powerful arctic cold front will blast through Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning. Strong winds and cold
temperatures will combine to produce very cold and even dangerous
wind chills. Additionally, freezing temperatures will help to
produce a chance of sleet and freezing rain across the entire
region. The cold will produce life-threatening conditions for
people, pets, and animals, while the ice will create hazardous
driving conditions.

TXZ252>255-161100-
/O.NEW.KBRO.WC.W.0001.180117T0400Z-180117T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KBRO.WC.Y.0002.180116T2100Z-180117T0400Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.WW.Y.0001.180117T0300Z-180117T1500Z/
Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-
Including the cities of Rio Grande City, Roma, McAllen, Edinburg,
Pharr, Mission, Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, and Harlingen
625 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM CST
TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO
9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Very cold to dangerously cold
wind chills expected. Expect wind chills to range from 17
degrees to 27 degrees.

* WHERE...Starr, Hidalgo, Inland Willacy and Inland Cameron
County.

* WHEN...Mid-afternoon Tuesday to late Tuesday night for the Wind
Chill Advisory, Tuesday night to mid-morning Wednesday for the
Winter Weather Advisory, and late Tuesday night to early
afternoon Wednesday for the Wind Chill Warning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel
conditions, including during rush hour Wednesday morning. Total
ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.
For maximum warmth, dress in layers of clothing. Protect outside
pets and livestock by providing adequate shelter and a safe
source of heat.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
the wind will create dangerously low wind chill values. Frost
bite can occur quickly and even hypothermia or death if
precautions are not taken.

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

&&

$$
Last edited by Rgv20 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6262 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:08 pm

STX Expat wrote:Hey, folks. Sorry I haven't been able to play this year. Just super busy. PortA, that snow you got was my doing. wxman57, sorry for the winter of your discontent, but, hey, it's our turn... 8-)

32° and very light snow in Sherman with no returns visible. Extremely light. Excruciatingly light. But, it's snowing. :cold:



That's very encouraging.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6263 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:09 pm

missygirl810 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
iorange55 wrote:We are getting VERY light sprinkles here in Cedar Hill.


Watch the band of precip to your south. They are moving N/NE and expanding, it's overrunning the front and behind. Once that meets up with the 0C 850mb temp, game on


If it overruns the front, does that mean more precip?


It's doing what it's supposed to at the moment. A lot will also depend on mesoscale banding if you get more or less.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6264 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:12 pm

Latest on HRRR has the radar REALLY filling in from NE of dallas, stretching back the southwest in the next hour or two. HRRR seems to be handling the upper air pretty well based off the SPC mesoscale analysis.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6265 Postby Cerlin » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:14 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Latest on HRRR has the radar REALLY filling in from NE of dallas, stretching back the southwest in the next hour or two. HRRR seems to be handling the upper air pretty well based off the SPC mesoscale analysis.

Is that good for denton county's chances of decent snowfall?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6266 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:16 pm

Also, as typical of these dense HP's for SE Tx, its possible our temps seem "high," but the moment the precip starts to fall, the temp will drop to its wet bulb temp. Dont panic. Almost similar to the Dec 8th event, except it was raining most of the day before the snow came. Our fav mountain range north of us i believe is responsible for this phenomenon.

Dont start crying bust or anything like that! :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6267 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:17 pm

Cerlin wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Latest on HRRR has the radar REALLY filling in from NE of dallas, stretching back the southwest in the next hour or two. HRRR seems to be handling the upper air pretty well based off the SPC mesoscale analysis.

Is that good for denton county's chances of decent snowfall?


Im not sure where Denton county is lol :). Maybe someone from the North Texas dept can handle this!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6268 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:22 pm

Sleet falling in Irving! Blowing hard against my windows facing north.
Last edited by gpsnowman on Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6269 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:22 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Sleet falling in Irving! Blowing hard against my windows.


Yes it's sleeting here too
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6270 Postby downsouthman1 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:23 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Latest on HRRR has the radar REALLY filling in from NE of dallas, stretching back the southwest in the next hour or two. HRRR seems to be handling the upper air pretty well based off the SPC mesoscale analysis.

Is that good for denton county's chances of decent snowfall?


Im not sure where Denton county is lol :). Maybe someone from the North Texas dept can handle this!

It borders Dallas and Tarrant counties on the north. It is one county northwest of the winter weather advisory.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6271 Postby Theepicman116 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:23 pm

HRRR isn't being friendly to Keller.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6272 Postby JayDT » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:23 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Sleet falling in Irving! Blowing hard against my windows.


Its starting!! :lol: Should be close here in Duncanville too
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6273 Postby downsouthman1 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Sleet falling in Irving! Blowing hard against my windows.


Yes it's sleeting here too

The radar hardly even shows returns there. Impressive!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6274 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:24 pm

downsouthman1 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Sleet falling in Irving! Blowing hard against my windows.


Yes it's sleeting here too

The radar hardly even shows returns there. Impressive!


It's quite heavy too. Loud and clear
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6275 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:25 pm

Snowman67 wrote:Have a flight out of Bush Intercontinental at 12:05pm tomorrow. What's the over/under on me getting out :cold:


I'd say you have excellent chances of getting out, though there could be a few delays, depending upon where the plane you're flying out on is coming from. The runways will likely be fine, and they do have the capability to de-ice an aircraft before takeoff.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6276 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:26 pm

It is this band causing it and it's moving for North Dallas

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6277 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:27 pm

Ntxw wrote:
It's quite heavy too. Loud and clear


If this is a sign of things to come, it's going to be a fun night. Decent precip with little returns.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6278 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:
downsouthman1 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yes it's sleeting here too

The radar hardly even shows returns there. Impressive!


It's quite heavy too. Loud and clear


Likely very low. Radar cant pick it up? Something like that? lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6279 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:28 pm

STX Expat wrote:Hey, folks. Sorry I haven't been able to play this year. Just super busy. PortA, that snow you got was my doing. wxman57, sorry for the winter of your discontent, but, hey, it's our turn... 8-)

32° and very light snow in Sherman with no returns visible. Extremely light. Excruciatingly light. But, it's snowing. :cold:


Don't know what you mean - I LOVE cold and snow. Don't try to take credit for the cold and icy weather that I brought to Texas this winter. I promised the cold and ice last summer. Perhaps if that snow continues for a few weeks at the current intensity then you can make a small snowman. ;-)
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6280 Postby Captmorg70 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:28 pm

Cerlin wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Latest on HRRR has the radar REALLY filling in from NE of dallas, stretching back the southwest in the next hour or two. HRRR seems to be handling the upper air pretty well based off the SPC mesoscale analysis.

Is that good for denton county's chances of decent snowfall?


Looking at HRRR and RGEM, our best bet is maybe up to .5” of snow. Depending on what part of the county you are in. The HRRR isn’t very bullish up here and MOST likely the heaviest stuff with be to our south and east. Taking the latest HRRR verbatim our best window for precipitation is between 9pm - midnight. Now if a strong banding setups up around you all bets are off and you could get a bit more, but that it hard to predict.

FYI this is my best guess from trends today. Anyone is welcome to correct me if I’m wrong :D
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