Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

However, what I can’t seem to figure out is what the difference is between this event and a system like what happened in feb 2011 where moisture was very scarce, but it still managed to substantially overperform. Can anyone offer some insight into the differences?

Feb 2011 had a very different dynamic. That was your typical southwest cutoff ULL that kicked out from New Mexico/North Mexico. It drew up mid and upper moisture from the Pacific. At the same time it was the back-end storm, meaning warmer air was on it's way in out of the cold snap

Bubba said it best earlier, we lost a lot of the precious qpf to IP/graupel. Probably a warm layer that will have to go back and dig for

Here is an archived 500mb pattern for that event from the WPC from Feb 3rd, 2011

[South Texas Storms]

However, what I can’t seem to figure out is what the difference is between this event and a system like what happened in feb 2011 where moisture was very scarce, but it still managed to substantially overperform. Can anyone offer some insight into the differences?

Feb 2011 had a very different dynamic. That was your typical southwest cutoff ULL that kicked out from New Mexico/North Mexico. It drew up mid and upper moisture from the Pacific. At the same time it was the back-end storm, meaning warmer air was on it's way in out of the cold snap

Bubba said it best earlier, we lost a lot of the precious qpf to IP/graupel. Probably a warm layer that will have to go back and dig for

Yeah I'm worried about that warm layer down here in south and central TX. Hope we see more sleet than freezing rain. Still hopeful for a brief period of snow before the precip ends during the afternoon.

[TexasF6]

Event is underway, freeze line is a little slower into Austin it seems!

[Cerlin]

So, is this event done for DFW now? Or are there the tiniest chances of snow left?

[Brent]

yeah I would say what surprised me is how much precip we lost to sleet.... I really didnt see that as being a problem here in DFW. It became pretty obvious to me when it was still sleeting/graupel/whatever it was that we definitely werent going to see that half inch of snow.

Now we just have cold to look forward to. Yay.

[downsouthman1]

Event is underway, freeze line is a little slower into Austin it seems!

True but the overrunning precip is not waning yet. There is still time.

[Ntxw]

So, is this event done for DFW now? Or are there the tiniest chances of snow left?

Its largely done for any significant snow in NTX. Whatever you've been experiencing will likely continue off and on for the next hour or two

We'll have to live vicariously through far East/NE Texas posters until the next one. Now we know how Portastorm has felt for years

[iorange55]

Light snow here...nothing special, but I guess we can’t complain!

The radar now looks very similar to what the HRRR was showing. We lost some precip early to sleet and it brought snow totals down (which I believe it started catching on to) but I’m still impressed with its performance.

[Ntxw]

Light snow here...nothing special, but I guess we can’t complain!

The radar now looks very similar to what the HRRR was showing. We lost some precip early to sleet and it brought snow totals down (which I believe it started catching on to) but I’m still impressed with its performance.

HRRR did well, it even largely showed little accum. NAM was garbage this go round largely. It may have been right with little snow but for the wrong reason

[Shoshana]

Event is underway, freeze line is a little slower into Austin it seems!

True but the overrunning precip is not waning yet. There is still time.

Still raining a bit, some wind, 36. Rain and wind seem to be sporadic now. I’m not planning on staying up much longer...

[TexasF6]

The WUSA WV loop looks very interesting. Looks like potential embedded shortwaves in that fast moving flow! Porta must be charging up Champ The Charger for the changover to all snow in the late afternoon (I hope) for Austin!!!

[Shoshana]

The WUSA WV loop looks very interesting. Looks like potential embedded shortwaves in that fast moving flow! Porta must be charging up Champ The Charger for the changover to all snow in the late afternoon (I hope) for Austin!!!

When is it supposed to start changing from rain to frozen?

[South Texas Storms]

The WUSA WV loop looks very interesting. Looks like potential embedded shortwaves in that fast moving flow! Porta must be charging up Champ The Charger for the changover to all snow in the late afternoon (I hope) for Austin!!!

When is it supposed to start changing from rain to frozen?

Most likely time period for frozen precip in Austin is from 3am to 3pm.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Just hit 32.0 here at my weather station. We'll see what happens.

[Ralph's Weather]

Pushing towards half an inch with snow to continue through daybreak. HRRR very impressive even if its totals may be a bit overdone from the most agressive runs this afternoon. Pretty powdery jow and blowing in the wind. Very impressive so far. Expecting around 2" here unless we get some heavy bands. Spots NE of here could get 4"+.

[TXdaddy217]

Here in Abilene it is 23 degrees. There are a few bands of light snow coming in from the southwest oddly enough. I figured it would come in from the east. Still it is something.

[Lagreeneyes03]

So now that this is done and disappointment for DFW...when's our next shot at this?

[TexasF6]

I just heard "tink tink tink" outside? I think I'm getting sleet mixed with rain at the Longhorn WX Center in Jollyville!!! I agree with magical 28 degree numbers around 2-3am for Austin in earnest. The storm system is powerful to see on WV!!! Dallas, do not despair, Jan 25-30 is coming!

[Ntxw]

So now that this is done and disappointment for DFW...when's our next shot at this?

Jan 25-31st. -PNA reverses the US pattern cold west and plains, warm eastern US. A few storms will come out of California

[JDawg512]

Here is the Rain Miser's 1 a.m. update. Rain has been pretty consistent here at the Rain Cave. I've read some of my fellow Austin forumers have had on and off rainfall but I haven't seen any breaks at my location and if there were, they were either short lived or the wind was blowing rain that had already fallen. Either way, there hasn't been a noticeable pause from what I can tell. Continuing to get blowing rain to the point where I'm having to place towels along the north facing french doors as water is blowing through the cracks. The last time this happened, though on a greater scale, was during Hurricane Harvey. Temp is now at 35 degrees. Looking at precip mode on the radar shows a returns coming in from the west/southwest. Will check the temp again at 1:30.