Texas Winter 2017-2018

[cheezyWXguy]

So now that this is done and disappointment for DFW...when's our next shot at this?

Earlier today it was mentioned that Jan 25-31 is the next timeframe to watch. This may hold water, as the last few runs of the GFS have shown a persistent trough in the west during that time, despite significant fluctuations in the 500mb pattern. 0z run shows a solid bowling ball ULL on the southen border of AZ on the 28th. A long way out, but it may be trying to sniff something out, and if this were to hold true, it would be different and a more favorable setup than the teaser systems weve had over the last 3 weeks. I am reluctant to get my hopes up though.

[Ralph's Weather]

Roads covered and almost an inch on my snow board still 4 to 5 hours to go.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

700 MB became much more saturated for North Texas but it must be super super dry below that :/ Sorry fellas. Front isnt even here at my place yet. Its imminent though.

Showing 56F. 6 Hours from now, we are expecting ice to start forming on all surfaces

[Lagreeneyes03]

So now that this is done and disappointment for DFW...when's our next shot at this?

Earlier today it was mentioned that Jan 25-31 is the next timeframe to watch. This may hold water, as the last few runs of the GFS have shown a persistent trough in the west during that time, despite significant fluctuations in the 500mb pattern. 0z run shows a solid bowling ball ULL on the southen border of AZ on the 28th. A long way out, but it may be trying to sniff something out, and if this were to hold true, it would be different and a more favorable setup than the teaser systems weve had over the last 3 weeks. I am reluctant to get my hopes up though.

Less dry then, I would assume? But hopefully cold enough.

[JDawg512]

As of 1:30 the temp at the Rain Cave has dropped to 34 degrees. Blowing rain continues.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Still a cold rain here. 31.1 out. Looks like some of the leaves on my bushes are starting to get a little slushy glaze on them. Will expect that to start to solidify shortly.

Still wondering if there's more precip forecast to build. Maybe as the 700 mb front advances further south? I know it's still early as far as Austin is concerned, and I don't have enough knowledge to know what atmospheric forcings may still be coming. But hey, I'm impatient!

[South Texas Storms]

Still a cold rain here. 31.1 out. Looks like some of the leaves on my bushes are starting to get a little slushy glaze on them. Will expect that to start to solidify shortly.

Still wondering if there's more precip forecast to build. Maybe as the 700 mb front advances further south? I know it's still early as far as Austin is concerned, and I don't have enough knowledge to know what atmospheric forcings may still be coming. But hey, I'm impatient!

A shortwave disturbance is forecast to track across the region around daybreak likely helping to trigger more widespread precip to develop. This combined with the 700 mb front will give us our best chance of frozen precip.

[LeonardRay]

front coming through west Houston now

[Longhornmaniac8]

A shortwave disturbance is forecast to track across the region around daybreak likely helping to trigger more widespread precip to develop. This combined with the 700 mb front will give us our best chance of frozen precip.

I saw a reference to these shortwaves earlier. I will plead ignorance here and hope that if you have a few minutes to spare you could explain why we care about these, how to find them on imagery, and what causes them to be our "weather-makers."

Thanks so much. Your contributions are invaluable here!

[South Texas Storms]

A shortwave disturbance is forecast to track across the region around daybreak likely helping to trigger more widespread precip to develop. This combined with the 700 mb front will give us our best chance of frozen precip.

I saw a reference to these shortwaves earlier. I will plead ignorance here and hope that if you have a few minutes to spare you could explain why we care about these, how to find them on imagery, and what causes them to be our "weather-makers."

Thanks so much. Your contributions are invaluable here!

Unfortunately I don't have time tonight as it is a very busy night at work for me. Remind me in a few days when the weather calms down across the state and I'll be happy to explain!

[Longhornmaniac8]

A shortwave disturbance is forecast to track across the region around daybreak likely helping to trigger more widespread precip to develop. This combined with the 700 mb front will give us our best chance of frozen precip.

I saw a reference to these shortwaves earlier. I will plead ignorance here and hope that if you have a few minutes to spare you could explain why we care about these, how to find them on imagery, and what causes them to be our "weather-makers."

Thanks so much. Your contributions are invaluable here!

Unfortunately I don't have time tonight as it is a very busy night at work for me. Remind me in a few days when the weather calms down across the state and I'll be happy to explain!

Cheers! Thanks for doing what y'all do! As a pilot, I know we appreciate it!

[TexasF6]

A shortwave disturbance is forecast to track across the region around daybreak likely helping to trigger more widespread precip to develop. This combined with the 700 mb front will give us our best chance of frozen precip.

I saw a reference to these shortwaves earlier. I will plead ignorance here and hope that if you have a few minutes to spare you could explain why we care about these, how to find them on imagery, and what causes them to be our "weather-makers."

Thanks so much. Your contributions are invaluable here!

Unfortunately I don't have time tonight as it is a very busy night at work for me. Remind me in a few days when the weather calms down across the state and I'll be happy to explain!

TY SouthTexasStorms!!!

[Shoshana]

CBS Austin live posting. Showing ice forming on cars and saying rain will be changing to frozen rain soon. He said it’s 32 there now (Metric n Kramer)

[JDawg512]

2 a.m. update. Temp is now 33, looks like there maybe some sort of winter mix but for the most part rain. Given how quickly the temp has fallen I'd expect it to be 32 by 2:15 a.m. and should start to see some icing on exposed surfaces by 3 a.m. if not sooner across south Austin.

[goCoogs]

I saw a reference to these shortwaves earlier. I will plead ignorance here and hope that if you have a few minutes to spare you could explain why we care about these, how to find them on imagery, and what causes them to be our "weather-makers."

Thanks so much. Your contributions are invaluable here!

Unfortunately I don't have time tonight as it is a very busy night at work for me. Remind me in a few days when the weather calms down across the state and I'll be happy to explain!

Cheers! Thanks for doing what y'all do! As a pilot, I know we appreciate it!

I don't profess to know what I'm talking about but my basic understanding is that a shortwave it like an upper level front. This front can have counter clockwise circulation that enhances lift to create more precip. If I recall correctly the Christmas 2004 snow was partly due to a shortwave.

Disclaimer: Everything I typed above could be wrong.

[Shoshana]

32 here now. Just looks wet out. Can’t hear rain or sleet.

[JDawg512]

I can also confirm that it's 32 degrees, only light precip is falling and the wind has died down. As Soshana reported, everthing is just wet.

I'm going to have to take a nap for a bit but will see what's going on around 4 a.m.

[Longhornmaniac8]

It does look like there are more showers firing up to the SW of Austin, tracking to the NE. I'm expecting to be under some of that in about 20 minutes...will report on precip type.

[JDawg512]

Couldn't sleep. 3 a.m. update the Rain Cave is now switching over to the Ice Cave. Ice is starting to coat exposed surfaces. I can also see some small ice pellets mixed in. Wind has picked up again after a brief lull, temp has dropped to 31 degrees.

[Longhornmaniac8]

It seemed like mostly virga. A few stray sleet pellets. Lower levels seem fairly dry right now.