cheezyWXguy wrote:Also, to anyone who knows how to pick up on severe weather in the models:
Any thoughts on the 12z GFS at hour 120 for NTX? Im not very experienced in looking at much other than short term models for this, but at that hour I see a 999mb surface low in the TX/OK panhandle, and in NTX I see 25kt surface winds to the NNE and 60 kt 850mb winds transitioning to the ENE at 700mb with precip falling. I might be wrong, but that looks severe-ish to me.
There might be a hint of some thunderstorms, but as of this 12z GFS run there would be too many things going against Severe weather. The sounding by itself at hour 114 would look great in the spring if the temperature was 75 and the dew point was 70. The most limiting factor would be the lack of instability 500 J/kg CAPE is enough for some thunder, if you want severe weather without really good support from windshear you need a CAPE of 1000-1250 J/kg. Although there are some strong winds above the surface, you'd want to see a bit more turning. I'd say that I wouldn't expect anything more than a marginal severe risk off this model run, but that could change.
Speaking of wind we always speak of it from where it's coming from, not where it's heading. So we would say, "The wind will be from the south at 5-10 mph. A cold front will pass through and the winds will turn towards the Northwest at 30-35 mph with gusts up to 40mph."
Instead of "The wind will be heading towards the north at 5-10 mph and then turn to the Northwest at 20-25mph." The 2nd quote makes it sound like the winds are coming from the SE. In your case it would be a SSW surface wind becoming a WSW 700mb wind.
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.